Race for Champions League - 2023/2024

[Vive_La_Villa]

21 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Lucky with Inuries? Are you for real? Four of our most important players uave been our for about 90% of the games we have played to this point.

Separate point, Why do so many villa fans talk their own club down?

All 4 of them would struggle to get straight back in the team so I guess they wernt our most important players after all.  I think if we lost Emi or Watkins we’d be screwed. I get where you are coming from though as at the time we lost Mings it felt our season was over. 
 

Second point, I don’t think Villa fans talk the club down. They just try not to get over excited to avoid the disappointment that can come with it.  You see a lot of extremes in forums. A bit of balance is fine too. 

[rodders129]

A few points…

Everyone on here keeps referencing our dropped points to Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth etc, but the other three title challengers have had similar struggles. That’s why we’re two points off top.

The calendar year points total is a strong body of evidence to show this is not a temporary patch of form…it’s a sustained pattern under Emery.

Our style of play is generally a less intense press and more control/ball retention. I think this is contributing to less injuries, less fatigue and more opportunity for less rotation and therefore stronger team dynamics. MON understood the benefit of a consistent team selection but his playing style wrecked the players by March. Emery has the best of both worlds. 

Out of Newcastle, Brighton and Villa (the three teams new to European competition), Villa are the one thriving in the PL (also West Ham from last and this season). Emery is a master and balancing European competition with league performance and is drawing on all of his experience. Look at Newcastle. I feel sorry for Howe, but it was naive to think their all action high energy style would carry through the extra fixtures. After that opening fixture who should have thought where we’d both be now. The season is a marathon not a sprint.

Honestly though as Villa fans, short of a trophy win, it simply doesn’t get better than this. The thrill of the rise to the top, the excitement of the chase, and seeing the development and emergence of a team of good lads buying in to Emery. Wherever we finish just enjoy it. I guarantee deep down this is more satisfying to Villa fans than the PL title win is to Man City fans

 

[Brumstopdogs]

1 hour ago, mjmooney said:

I think what we are saying is, OK, nothing is guaranteed, BUT it would take a collapse of MASSIVE proportions for us not to qualify for CL now. And I can't see that happening with Emery in charge. 

I think if we don't get more major injuries then we'll give ourselves a good chance.

My concern would be if, say, Martinez and/or Watkins got injured just how well we'd maintain our form although the same could be said for other CL challengers if they lose key players.

[CVByrne]

23 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Lucky with Inuries? Are you for real? Four of our most important players uave been our for about 90% of the games we have played to this point.

Separate point, Why do so many villa fans talk their own club down?

Lucky I said in that Mings got injured and we brought in Lenglet because window was still open. We had brought in Pau already.

As for "talking down their own club". Don't make me laugh. You want more people to be the reactive type is it? only swing from total "we're going to win the league optimism after beating City" or "we're never getting CL after an away loss to Forest". 

Seeing a season as a season and not just being a reactive is now a negative. Emery wants the team to stay humble and realise it's a long season. But no, we need to lose our heads and go act like Arsenal fans. Thanks for that advice.

[fightoffyour]

3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

All 4 of them would struggle to get straight back in the team so I guess they wernt our most important players after all.  I think if we lost Emi or Watkins we’d be screwed. I get where you are coming from though as at the time we lost Mings it felt our season was over. 

Mings is still our best CB. He'd be playing instead of Carlos now.

Moreno and Ramsey will work their way in and become starters in at least half our games. Eventually the same for Buendia too.

Not as irreplaceable as Emi or Watkins no, but important players yes.

[Enda]

8 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

If we equal Emery's career worst run of 22 games, we get 25 more points and finish on 60. Decent chance of 7th again.

If we equal our results from last season for remainder of this one (which include six Gerrard/Danks games that got us 4 points), we'll finish on 69 points. We'd be unlucky to not get 5th with this total, and would have a chance of 4th.

If we equal Emery's career average points over 22 games, we get to 74 by the end of the season. We'd be unlucky to not be 4th. 5th pretty much guaranteed.

If we maintain Emery's record over the last 41 games for the remainder of the season, it's an 80 point finish. 4th guaranteed, reasonable chance of 3rd, small chance of 2nd.

11 home games left, 7 of which against bottom half sides, 3 against sides chasing us for 4th in Newcastle, Man Utd and Spurs. We should be banking at least  20 points from those and probably more.

Our remaining away games are tougher, but we might only be needed around 1ppg from those to get 4th/5th. Maintaining our current "poor" away form gets us another 15 points. That plus doing the minimum I'd expect at home gets us to 70.

 

Very good post, Tom.

Implicitly you’re assuming there’s no chance of a disaster, a patch where we are worse than we’ve ever been with Emery.

This is fair enough based on past experience, but it’s not that hard to imagine a scenario where we revert to 1.0 ppg (or worse) for a patch. A straight red card and three match ban for Martinez would do it, for example. An injury to Boubs would hurt us. And obviously a dry spell for Ollie would do it too.

We also need to expect one of the teams behind us, Spurs or Chelsea or Brighton for example, to go on an extended unbeaten run and catch right up with us.

I still think Top 4 is more likely than not. At this stage I think we’ll finish exactly fourth. But 6th wouldn’t surprise me a bit. There might only be a few points between 4th and 6th, and that’s definitely in the range of possibility.

[Leeroy]

36 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Lucky with Inuries? Are you for real? Four of our most important players uave been our for about 90% of the games we have played to this point.

Separate point, Why do so many villa fans talk their own club down?

I wouldn’t say we’ve been lucky with injuries exactly but I think we overplay the importance of the players. Moreno was brilliant last season, but Digne has come in and done a great job. Buendia has something a bit different but I’m not convinced he’d have been a regular starter for us with Bailey and Diaby ahead of him. 
 

Losing Mings has been bad from a defensive point of view as he’s our leader back there and a colossus, but Pau Torres has improved us going forward so it’s swings and roundabouts. I’m also unsure what the plan was re Torres: was it to play with Mings or instead of him? I think the player we’ve missed the most is Ramsey because Zaniolo hasn’t worked so far but he is now back in the squad. Traore is the only other injured player and he’s barely featured this season.

 

I would say our injuries don’t get talked about enough, but compared to Newcastle and Tottenham I think we’ve had it slightly better. Although their lack of squad depth is clearly an issue and probably worse than ours.

[CVByrne]

Biggest risks for us right now are.

1) United sacking EtH. A new manager could turn the team around and there is plenty of the season left for them to make the Top 4

2) Newcastle getting knocked out of Europe. We need one or both of United/Newcastle to remain in Europe to help the PL get the 5th CL spot. We need them to keep their squad stretched. So at least drop into Europa League which still has tough games and chance of a Trophy and CL qualification. 

 

[MSvillain]

19 minutes ago, rodders129 said:

A few points…

Everyone on here keeps referencing our dropped points to Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth etc, but the other three title challengers have had similar struggles. That’s why we’re two points off top.

The calendar year points total is a strong body of evidence to show this is not a temporary patch of form…it’s a sustained pattern under Emery.

Our style of play is generally a less intense press and more control/ball retention. I think this is contributing to less injuries, less fatigue and more opportunity for less rotation and therefore stronger team dynamics. MON understood the benefit of a consistent team selection but his playing style wrecked the players by March. Emery has the best of both worlds. 

Out of Newcastle, Brighton and Villa (the three teams new to European competition), Villa are the one thriving in the PL (also West Ham from last and this season). Emery is a master and balancing European competition with league performance and is drawing on all of his experience. Look at Newcastle. I feel sorry for Howe, but it was naive to think their all action high energy style would carry through the extra fixtures. After that opening fixture who should have thought where we’d both be now. The season is a marathon not a sprint.

Honestly though as Villa fans, short of a trophy win, it simply doesn’t get better than this. The thrill of the rise to the top, the excitement of the chase, and seeing the development and emergence of a team of good lads buying in to Emery. Wherever we finish just enjoy it. I guarantee deep down this is more satisfying to Villa fans than the PL title win is to Man City fans

 

Massive point that people just ignore

[turvontour]

27 minutes ago, rodders129 said:

A few points…

Everyone on here keeps referencing our dropped points to Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth etc, but the other three title challengers have had similar struggles. That’s why we’re two points off top.

The calendar year points total is a strong body of evidence to show this is not a temporary patch of form…it’s a sustained pattern under Emery.

Our style of play is generally a less intense press and more control/ball retention. I think this is contributing to less injuries, less fatigue and more opportunity for less rotation and therefore stronger team dynamics. MON understood the benefit of a consistent team selection but his playing style wrecked the players by March. Emery has the best of both worlds. 

Out of Newcastle, Brighton and Villa (the three teams new to European competition), Villa are the one thriving in the PL (also West Ham from last and this season). Emery is a master and balancing European competition with league performance and is drawing on all of his experience. Look at Newcastle. I feel sorry for Howe, but it was naive to think their all action high energy style would carry through the extra fixtures. After that opening fixture who should have thought where we’d both be now. The season is a marathon not a sprint.

Honestly though as Villa fans, short of a trophy win, it simply doesn’t get better than this. The thrill of the rise to the top, the excitement of the chase, and seeing the development and emergence of a team of good lads buying in to Emery. Wherever we finish just enjoy it. I guarantee deep down this is more satisfying to Villa fans than the PL title win is to Man City fans

 

I completely agree.

Not sure if that stat has been picked up on here but saw that only ten premier league managers have had this many points as Emery at this stage with a club, and all went on to win the Premier league with that club.

Essentially Emery has to not win the league with us to stop that pattern.

He's creating some very nice problems. 

[Sulberto21]

Have we ever been unbeaten at home for an entire season? Now that’d be an amazing achievement. 

[MotoMkali]

18 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

I wouldn’t say we’ve been lucky with injuries exactly but I think we overplay the importance of the players. Moreno was brilliant last season, but Digne has come in and done a great job. Buendia has something a bit different but I’m not convinced he’d have been a regular starter for us with Bailey and Diaby ahead of him. 
 

Losing Mings has been bad from a defensive point of view as he’s our leader back there and a colossus, but Pau Torres has improved us going forward so it’s swings and roundabouts. I’m also unsure what the plan was re Torres: was it to play with Mings or instead of him? I think the player we’ve missed the most is Ramsey because Zaniolo hasn’t worked so far but he is now back in the squad. Traore is the only other injured player and he’s barely featured this season.

 

I would say our injuries don’t get talked about enough, but compared to Newcastle and Tottenham I think we’ve had it slightly better. Although their lack of squad depth is clearly an issue and probably worse than ours.

Yes because we've brought in cover for our injury prone players. The only positions where we don't really have adequate cover are upfront, replacements for Dougie and Kamara and In goal. Watkins and Dougie are absolute iron men, goalkeepers don't get injured that often. Kamara is really the only player we have been lucky that has avoided injury and even then it was into really last season that he got injured, he was mostly healthy for Marseille, missing just 5 games in his last 4 seasons with them. 

[bobzy]

Are we at the strange point where we'd now be disappointed not to get into the Champions League?

 

How times have changed.

[Vive_La_Villa]

4 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Are we at the strange point where we'd now be disappointed not to get into the Champions League?

 

How times have changed.

Pretty incredible isn’t it?  I don’t care about anything else now this season. I just want to hear that champions league music on Wednesday evening next season with 36000 fans watching on. 

[Stevo985]

54 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

If we equal Emery's career worst run of 22 games, we get 25 more points and finish on 60. Decent chance of 7th again.

If we equal our results from last season for remainder of this one (which include six Gerrard/Danks games that got us 4 points), we'll finish on 69 points. We'd be unlucky to not get 5th with this total, and would have a chance of 4th.

If we equal Emery's career average points over 22 games, we get to 74 by the end of the season. We'd be unlucky to not be 4th. 5th pretty much guaranteed.

If we maintain Emery's record over the last 41 games for the remainder of the season, it's an 80 point finish. 4th guaranteed, reasonable chance of 3rd, small chance of 2nd.

11 home games left, 7 of which against bottom half sides, 3 against sides chasing us for 4th in Newcastle, Man Utd and Spurs. We should be banking at least  20 points from those and probably more.

Our remaining away games are tougher, but we might only be needed around 1ppg from those to get 4th/5th. Maintaining our current "poor" away form gets us another 15 points. That plus doing the minimum I'd expect at home gets us to 70.

 

Great post

[turvontour]

16 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Are we at the strange point where we'd now be disappointed not to get into the Champions League?

 

How times have changed.

I mean that'll come down to the individual. I'd be disappointed for us not to qualify for Europe for next season. In some form. But if we are in the same league position in Feb say, then yes maybe then extend it to champions league qualification. 

[Mark Albrighton]

24 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Are we at the strange point where we'd now be disappointed not to get into the Champions League?

 

How times have changed.

I’m really trying not to be of that mindset, but I can’t lie, I find myself mentally having us one foot in the champions league next year.

Which feels like dangerous thinking, but I’m looking at the fixtures and trying to put a negative slant on things “Oh we might draw at Goodison Park”, “They’re bad but we probably won’t win twice against Man Utd”, “Wolves are a ball ache for us”…

I still have us reaching a points total that would typically secure 4th. 

The longer we’re in a champions league spot (whether that’s top four or five) the bigger the disappointment it will be if we fall short. On the plus side, I think the longer we’re occupying those places, the better the chance we have of qualifying for it.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Mark Albrighton

[Stevo985]

25 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Are we at the strange point where we'd now be disappointed not to get into the Champions League?

 

How times have changed.

I think we are.

I think expectations shift as you go through a season. Before the season I don't think any of us would have been disappointed if we missed out on CL.

But being where we are now, you would have to say it would be a disappointment, even though it's entirely possible.

[CVByrne]

25 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Are we at the strange point where we'd now be disappointed not to get into the Champions League?

 

How times have changed.

Well yes we will be. It'll mean we've ended 6th. United or Newcastle recovering from the gap we have right now and their form. It needs us to drop off a lot. 

If we have an injury crisis or we end 5th and league doesn't get the extra CL spot. We'll be unlucky and more accept that. 

I just feel this is like Newcastle last season, the form from the 2nd half of the season last year carries through. We'll have a dip somewhere but make it in the end. The momentum is there now

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, Enda said:

Implicitly you’re assuming there’s no chance of a disaster, a patch where we are worse than we’ve ever been with Emery.

I think it would need to be quite a disaster. Getting to 70 points from where we are now would be a pretty substantial drop off from Emery's record to date. It's an almost identical drop in ppg (0.458) to that between Emery's first and second season at Arsenal (0.457)

Could it go worse? Sure. But it would take the worst 22 game run of Emery's 700-odd game career for us to not reach 60 points this season. So even at Emery's absolute worst we are still in European contention.

I think West Ham's drop off in 21/22 is worth comparison. I remember they had kept a very consistent first XI, similar to us, found themselves in 3rd after 11 games and there was talk of possible CL qualification. Then the injuries came. They were still 4th after 16 games, but with 28 points compared to our 35. They surpassed 35 points after game 21, hitting 37 points and found themselves back in 4th. They then saw only 19 points from the final 17 games, ending up in 7th on 56 points.

So they'd already had to start mixing up their first XI before the point we are at. We are 7 points beyond where they were at this stage and have players pushing for first XI returning rather than losing more players. I'd argue we've better cover than they had, especially in defence where they suffered the worst.

Edited December 11, 2023 by tomsky_11