Summer Transfer Window 2023

[GarethRDR]

1 hour ago, trillvillan said:

Much better goalkeeper in Alban Lafont. 

Nah, Maignan's probably in the top 5 goalies in the world, Lafont's occasionally a spectacular shot-stopper but too error prone to be put near that same bracket.

[DaveAV1]

6 hours ago, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

For me, that's all just down to the difference between a manager with a specific plan and instructions for each of his players, and a manager who just sends his team out and tells them to produce a bit of magic

That just about nails it on the head. The whole team now works to a plan both as a team and individually within the team. The meticulous nature of the planning and the commitment shown by the manager to the plan, also greatly helps the player’s belief in what they’re doing, both in the long term, such as playing out from the back and on a game my game basis. 
 

Unai has a plan for everything and every player knows what it is and they gain confidence from his clear leadership. 

[Enda]

Could see us going for Kelleher.

[tomsky_11]

7 hours ago, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

 

I thought this was interesting, so I looked into it a bit further for Buendia and a few others. I compared the stats under Gerrard versus those under Emery (both only PL games this season, 11 vs 12 games, but all stats are per 90 mins). Gerrard's opposition was a fair bit easier with an average table position of 12.4 versus Emery's opposition's 9.8 based on the current league table (Gerrard's games included 2 of the top 5, and all of the bottom 5. Emery's included all of the top 5, and 3 of the bottom 5).

Since Emery has come in, almost all of Buendia's volume stats are way down - touches down from 62 to 47. His Shot Creating Actions have gone way down from 4.25 to 2.53. Passes, tackles, carries, attempted take ons, blocks, etc. are all down. But his actual productivity stats are way up. Goals, up from 0.2 to 0.3. Goal Creating Actions up from 0.2 to 0.51, which would be good for 19th in the league (6 of the 18 players ahead of him play for Man City - the only players ahead of him from outside of the top 5 teams are Wellbeck and Mitoma). That's exactly the kind of productivity you'd be looking for from him. That would work out at around 8-9 goals and 14-15 GCA over a season if he played 75% of the minutes available, or 11-12 goals and 19-20 GCA if he played every minute. I think most people would be pretty happy with that.

McGinn's stats have also followed a similar pattern - most volume stats way down, yet he has been way more effective. Shots down from 1.8 to 1.2, but Shots on Target are up from 0.4 to 0.5, because they're not all pot shots from distance. Touches, Tackles, Interceptions, Blocks, Passes Completed, Passes Attempted, Completion %, Progressive Passes, Progressive Carries are all down. Shot creating actions are up from 2.1 to 2.8. Goal Creating Actions are up from 0.20 to 0.78, which would be 4th in the Premier League this season, behind only Mahrez, De Bruyne and Foden. If he can add a few goals to his game again, he'll be back to his best.

Ramsey's stats have followed a similar pattern - most stats are down, but GCA is up from 0.11 to 0.28. He could really do with a big game soon though, as he's getting left behind a bit. His 1 goal and 2 GCA all came in the Man Utd win. He hasn't been involved in a goal in his last 8 games.

Even Watkins, who is clearly in great form, is touching the ball significantly less now (from 30 down to 25), but his productivity has been elite  - from 0.10 goals to 0.62, from 0.29 GCA to 0.41.

 

Nothing too unexpected there, but based on that, I don't think it's fair to say Buendia's "creative stats per90 have dropped" when you see the same pattern for the others playing in a similar role, and also look at the context of why the stats have changed in that pattern. For example, as a team, we are putting in almost half as many crosses now (20 per 90 under Gerrard, 12 under Emery), because peppering crosses into a 5'11" striker between two or three massive center backs probably wasn't that great of an idea. They may have been chances, but they weren't good chances. This is probably also a large part of the reason we are involved in way less Aerial Duals now (from 29 to 20 per 90), which is great, because aside from Mings, everyone else is pretty poor at them. We are passing it almost the same amount, but it's all happening further back the pitch where there is space, and then we're being incisive when we do move it forward.

For me, that's all just down to the difference between a manager with a specific plan and instructions for each of his players, and a manager who just sends his team out and tells them to produce a bit of magic.

Yep agreed. I actually agreed with the view I was replying to that he, as well as others, have clearly looked better than under Gerrard. The results kind of speak for themselves. I thought it was interesting that these volume numbers were down though and so at face value could read him as being less involved when that doesn't appear to be the case.

There was an article I read maybe a month ago that pointed pretty much to what you've suggested with further analysis, which showed that volume and quality of chances had barely changed from Gerrard to Emery, but what had drastically changed was efficiency in converting chances. They suggested as well that this might be down the more considered and patient build up leading to more composure in the final third.

The point about specific instructions and patterns of play as opposed to just leaving it to the players is a good one too. Buendia has, like you say, 0.51GCA per 90, but still hasn't registered an assist. So he's basically always been the pass before the assist. Perhaps indicative of a more defined role.

[Zatman]

27 minutes ago, Enda said:

Could see us going for Kelleher.

Will be a disaster if we do, he isnt Premier League quality

[Enda]

2 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Will be a disaster if we do, he isnt Premier League quality

Agreed that he’s not there yet, could be a top 6 keeper in 2-3 years though.

[tomsky_11]

15 hours ago, Marka Ragnos said:

I mean, if you read my post as saying "Just add more player mix and money and stir," that's certainly not what I meant. I'd say we need a whole lot of intelligent buying.

Sure, the signings we make need to be good, need to improve the first XI, etc. Stuff like this...

17 hours ago, Marka Ragnos said:

it still feels like it could all just fall apart if we don't strengthen our squad massively this summer.

...definitely makes it sound like you think more than a couple of players need replacing this summer though. Which I don't think is 1) achievable with our likely budget, or 2) necessary.

So, how much business do you think we actually need to do in the Summer? Which positions in the first XI do you actually think need replacing?

For me, from the noises the club have made, it's seems like we are going to spend big. Realistically I'd guess we are talking £100-150M range with this. For this I don't see us getting more than 2-3 players of sufficient quality to replace what we already have. Which is fine by me because like I said before, the current squad is perfoming at a level sufficient enough for Europe already if we can carry our current form, or even a slight drop in that, through to next season.

I think there's some consensus on here that the second striker role is a priority, as Bailey, for all his ability, has been inconsistent and is perhaps not best suited to this role.

After that, I'd be looking at right back, not because I don't think Cash is good enough, but because 1) I'm not sure he's as suited to the mould of player that Emery appears to like in this position, and 2) I think it's one of the easier positions for us to bring in a replacement and make the existing starter a rotation option.

Then I think it gets more difficult, as probably looking at 2-3 positions where it's difficult to improve on, where players are performing well under Emery and/or where we already have high number of options. These being:

• the attacking/wide midfield positions (McGinn especially is performing well and costs little, Buendia and Coutinho more costly but improved, Ramsey cheap and lots of potential),
• centre back (Carlos presumably not replacable, so looking at Mings who has done well and just extended, Konsa good quality rotation/cover)
• striker (Watkins in excellent form, maybe lack depth but have just spent a reasonable amount on potential with Duran)

I think we maybe go big in one of these areas, two at a push. After that I can't see us doing much else.

I think what Newcastle have done since Howe came in is a reasonable comparison:

• Howe came in to Newcastle, with arguably a worse squad and first XI than us, and got 1.63ppg in 27 games.
• Emery getting similar from his 25 games would finish us on 53 points, which I think is a realistic target this season.
• This season to date, Howe has improved on his ppg last season, currently at 1.71ppg which over a season is more than enough to secure European football. Should Emery finish at least as strongly this season as Howe did in his first, I think the bar set by Howe this season is a reasonable one for us next year.
• Obivously this improvement has come with squad improvement. Between Jan and Summer window 2022 they've spent just over £200M, with about £100M going on 5 players that have become part of their regular first XI, while more than half the remaining £100M went on the mostly injured Isak.
• We've spent £30M in Emery's first window and arguably signed one regular starter for next season, but as I've already said I think Emery has inherited a better squad and first XI. Given there's less work to do on our team than there was for Newcastle, spending another £100-150M or so on 2-3 significant upgrades this summer should be enough to put us in the European places next season, possibly even make a push for 4th.

Edited March 9, 2023 by tomsky_11

[the_sun_never_sets]

If we were to sell Martinez for huge amounts (doubt we will) I'd go for Meslier from Leeds. Quality and only 23 

don't think we need a revolution in the summer...

In: Pau Torres and Guendouzi + 2 inside forwards with pace

I reckon some of our loanees will come into the fold too... principally Iroegbunam
 

[The_Steve]

4 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

If we have to sign a keeper I’d love it to be Simon. He seems the perfect fit for Emery.

He’s my pick also. Big fan of Valencia’s keeper Mamardashvili. Still only 22 and he's like 6ft5inches. Playing in a poor Valencia team but already an international for Georgia. But if we had to go for the two, Simon would be my first choice replacement. 

[Zatman]

56 minutes ago, Enda said:

Agreed that he’s not there yet, could be a top 6 keeper in 2-3 years though.

I dont see it. He will be 25 next season and has played about 30 senior caps with about a third in Ireland friendlies. Has had little development

Dont think he ever got a sniff of a loan and Liverpool will fleece somebody in the summer for him

[Enda]

5 minutes ago, Zatman said:

I dont see it. He will be 25 next season and has played about 30 senior caps with about a third in Ireland friendlies. Has had little development

Dont think he ever got a sniff of a loan and Liverpool will fleece somebody in the summer for him

I think his ceiling is higher than Bazunu’s, who will comfortably have a decent mid-table career.

I can see Kelleher fitting the club’s idea of a good signing. A similar pattern to EM before we signed him, but younger. That’s if we sell Emi, of course.

[Vive_La_Villa]

41 minutes ago, the_sun_never_sets said:

If we were to sell Martinez for huge amounts (doubt we will) I'd go for Meslier from Leeds. Quality and only 23 

don't think we need a revolution in the summer...

In: Pau Torres and Guendouzi + 2 inside forwards with pace

I reckon some of our loanees will come into the fold too... principally Iroegbunam
 

Think he’s massively overrated. Some of the goals he lets in are embarrassing for a keeper. I think he’s a bit of a Hollywood saves type.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Vive_La_Villa

[VillaChris]

3 hours ago, Zatman said:

No chance he is one of the best keepers in the world and better for them than Donnarumma. Milan form fell off a cliff when he got injured

Yeah wasn't quite sure with Milan's financial situation. Not that long ago they were getting banned from europe for FFP reasons so was just assuming they'd be open to offers of say 70m (if we sold Emi for 50m for example).

[burchy]

I have absolutely no idea when it comes to possible keepers (if we sell Martinez) so will leave that to others to debate but for a RW/SS option could we use use Agent Emi to tempt Di Maria? Him and a younger RW would be a good bit of business, albeit short term in Di Maria’s case. 

[gwi1890]

5 minutes ago, burchy said:

I have absolutely no idea when it comes to possible keepers (if we sell Martinez) so will leave that to others to debate but for a RW/SS option could we use use Agent Emi to tempt Di Maria? Him and a younger RW would be a good bit of business, albeit short term in Di Maria’s case. 

Did agent Emi tempt Alvarez? Other than playing for the same national team do they have any other links on a personal level? But I do agree we need and experienced option along with a younger option I think Deulofeu along with Nico Williams would work perfectly.

[Philosopher]

1 minute ago, gwi1890 said:

Did agent Emi tempt Alvarez? Other than playing for the same national team do they have any other links on a personal level? But I do agree we need and experienced option along with a younger option I think Deulofeu along with Nico Williams would work perfectly.

Di'Maria is too old, and was poor for Man U in the Premier league when he was in his prime. I'd stay away from him personally.

[gwi1890]

13 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

Di'Maria is too old, and was poor for Man U in the Premier league when he was in his prime. I'd stay away from him personally.

To old and wages to high.

[Aston_Villan4]

2 hours ago, gwi1890 said:

Did agent Emi tempt Alvarez? Other than playing for the same national team do they have any other links on a personal level? But I do agree we need and experienced option along with a younger option I think Deulofeu along with Nico Williams would work perfectly.

He did try to recruit Alvarez. Says it was too late with Man City already deep in their recruitment.

[Marka Ragnos]

5 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

...definitely makes it sound like you think more than a couple of players need replacing this summer though. Which I don't think is 1) achievable with our likely budget, or 2) necessary.

 

Wow, you make so many compelling points. Your post is amazing, and maybe pays my neurotic weirdo posts too high a compliment. I couldn't agree more with the RB focus, especially since that person really seems to be expected to make excellent crosses on the break or overlap and as much as I love Mattie, he's not always clinical in critical chances.

My idea of a big spend is perhaps only £25m-£30m above your suggestion, so we're not that far apart.  

5 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

For me, from the noises the club have made, it's seems like we are going to spend big. Realistically I'd guess we are talking £100-150M range with this.

Yes. But it's that noise that worries me. I wish we could stop the noises or use more subterfuge and psyops skullduggery so we exploited rather than were exploited by the absolutely cut-throat sham transfer market. As I say above, sprinkle about £35m on your figures and we're there. If we're clever and lucky, too. 

5 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

• the attacking/wide midfield positions (McGinn especially is performing well and costs little, Buendia and Coutinho more costly but improved, Ramsey cheap and lots of potential),
• centre back (Carlos presumably not replacable, so looking at Mings who has done well and just extended, Konsa good quality rotation/cover)
• striker (Watkins in excellent form, maybe lack depth but have just spent a reasonable amount on potential with Duran)

Can't argue with any of these. It's almost more useful to talk about where we seem well-equipped, assuming we're at full fitness levels. The sands are ever-shifting, and I just won't feel confident that we're OK in the back until Diego proves he's recovered. We have leaked too many goals this season. I'm not sure I understand why, but it sows doubt for me.       

5 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Given there's less work to do on our team than there was for Newcastle, spending another £100-150M or so on 2-3 significant upgrades this summer should be enough to put us in the European places next season, possibly even make a push for 4th.

Here I think I disagree, only because I think you may underestimate the crazy oil-drenched pitch we're forced to play on. Newcastle and Man City will likely top up their golden gas tanks, and think about Chelsea -- they are very likely to have gelled better as a squad by next fall. And that's not even counting Arsenal and Man United and strivers such as Brighton. I can't see us getting 4th without more players capable of producing those magic moments the top four squads always, always need. Maybe we have them already in Duran or Kamara or Watkins or even Bailey (?? or maybe not), but I don't see it quite yet.   

[TRO]

19 hours ago, Philosopher said:

You just made my point. Buendia needs development! He isn’t rubbish, neither is it his teammates fault he didn't perform. Buendia continually plays himself into trouble. Isn’t strong enough, tricky enough, or quick enough too avoid losing possession when under pressure. He always wants to play that perfect through ball or clever flick, even when it isn't on (which is often the case) None of these are his teammates faults, they're his. He has had a couple of good games lately and is improving. But if you judged him on his attacking play upto now, it's  not been good enough overall. 

We love him because he harasses and works hard defensively, but most of his bluster doesn't even lead to a turnover because he's so slow and lightweight. 

I want him to succeed as much as anyone else, when we signed him I was salivating over him and Jack in the same team. But the reality has been depressing. He is  creative, but limited, he needs to get smarter, and choose his moments better, to become a useful player.

 

Its hard to argue, with any of that.....despite me really liking the fella.

Emi is a bit lightweight, so he doesn't need too many lightweight of sorts around him, he needs a few pugnacious players( if thats the right word) around him.....McGinn helps a bit....but the rest are a bit like him, lightweight ish.

Its all about balance Imo.....and that balance has to address elements of the games play, like high balls or tough tackling, pacy runs, or quick passing......you need players to be able to deal with these things, the better ones, can deal with many elements....the limited ones can only deal with one or two.

Emi can be easily negated, which is a shame, because he has bundles of passion and willingness to do well.....I really like the guy.

One thing I dislike in a player, is being passive......and Emi is not passive, despite his stature.