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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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Just now, M_Afro said:

Thanks mate. So it is top 7 then?

ManC, ManU, Brighton and Sheffield United are the teams left in the FA cup.

ManC and ManU is more or less guaranteed to end up in the top6, most likely Brighton will be there too.

That means if Sheffield United win the FA cup, not very likely, but if they do, it will be top 6 in the league get into Europe. 

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7 minutes ago, Lord Willard said:

Anyone know how many points we were behind Spurs, United and Newcastle before Emery took over? 

Spurs were on 23 points after 11 games

Chelsea 20

Newcastle 18

Us 9

 

After 13 games

Spurs 26

Newcastle 24

Chelsea 21

 

Us 12

Edited by brummybloke
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3 hours ago, nick76 said:

Whose noses? The main media from London would love Arsenal winning.  Liverpool and Man U fans won’t want City to win.  The football community have hated City’s cheating.  The only noses out of place are their owners and the half full stadium of fans they have.  In my mind the shake up is more the likes of us, Brighton, Newcastle upsetting the Top/Sky6.  Within the Sky6 it’s just muchness of muchness of scum.

Man City and Liverpool I suppose. Yeah, we would upset it massively. My comments weren’t particularly long gestated on… I suppose I should’ve just said ‘would annoy Man City and Liverpool’ ah well.

Edited by alreadyexists
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1 minute ago, brummybloke said:

Spurs were on 23 points after 11 games

Chelsea 20

Newcastle 18

Us 9

If going by league on 30th Oct 22 (day after we lost to Newcastle, Danks last game) Spurs had 26, Newcastle 24, Man U 23, Chelsea 21, Brighton 18, us on 12 after 18 games. So reeled in 11 points on spurs in 18 games by pulling out league winning form 

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18 minutes ago, brummybloke said:

Spurs were on 23 points after 11 games

Chelsea 20

Newcastle 18

Us 9

 

After 13 games

Spurs 26

Newcastle 24

Chelsea 21

 

Us 12

So we've gained 12 points over there PPG. Insane

Edited by Lord Willard
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Can we please dream a little now and foolishly pretend we're definitely going to play in Europe this autumn. Who would feel excited about in terms of likely Europa opponents?

Betis? Villarreal? Leverkeusen? Inter? Sparta Rotterdam? Lille? Union Berlin?

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A fine margin that could perhaps help us a little is if the Brighton v Man Utd FA Cup semi goes to extra time next Sunday, hopefully. Especially with Brighton: they then have to play in the league the following Wednesday. For United it's the following Thursday.

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34 minutes ago, Lord Willard said:

Anyone know how many points we were behind Spurs, United and Newcastle before Emery took over? 

Fantastic resource: 


https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:premier-league/daterange/fromdate:2022-Aug-01/todate:2022-Oct-31/type:home-and-away/

F3A5C689-2F07-4C25-B1CF-7C3EBDF82A0C.thumb.jpeg.ec4a73a997977636e6edd011c28ebecb.jpeg


FYI:

I’ve permanently set the from date to November 1st 2022

 

if sky can exclude everything before premier league, I can exclude everything before Emeryday.

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1 hour ago, Tomaszk said:

If we play like that to the end of the season we get 4th.

Utd are not a good side and gave ended up 9 points ahead of us.

We would need to get to at least 65 pts to be  even in the conversation. To be guaranteed 4th it would need to be about 70pts,which would mean winning all our remaining games. I can't see that happening. 

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I think Man Utd are too far away for us now, we would need to make up 9-10 points over the next 7 games, I just don’t see that happening, it’s a tall order even if we win all 7 matches and get 21 points. I think third place is locked in now.

Next weekend is huge. If Spurs can beat Newcastle, and we can beat Brentford, we are only 3 points from fourth place, that is touching distance!

Brighton don’t play, so they will have 3 games in hand on us and Spurs.

Liverpool play Leeds tomorrow and Forest next week, they may be 6 points better off and only 3 points behind us with a game in hand by the end of next weekend.

At this stage, it’s about staying in contention each week, and holding our nerve. I really didn’t see us beating Newcastle yesterday, that win has given us a slim chance of the impossible.

As I say, if we can beat Brentford, and Spurs can beat Newcastle, things are interesting going into the following midweek fixtures. We have Fulham, Spurs host Man Utd, Newcastle visit Everton. We could be level on points with both Spurs and Newcastle after that midweek round if they both lose.

This is assuming all results go our way, and if they did, my concern would probably be Liverpool sneaking into 4th with a late run. Brighton have lots of games in hand and it’s hard to know how they will cope with it.

Lots of IFs, but it’s great to dream though!

 

Edited by GeordieVillan
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12 minutes ago, Made In Aston said:

We would need to get to at least 65 pts to be  even in the conversation. To be guaranteed 4th it would need to be about 70pts,which would mean winning all our remaining games. I can't see that happening. 

We just need to win our next 2 games, and hope Spurs beat Newcastle and that Spurs and Newcastle both then lose to Man Utd and Everton the following midweek.

Then we are level on points with them both (with an inferior goal difference) and we just need to better them by one point in the remaining 5-6 games. It’s not impossible, as long as the next couple of weeks of results go our way. Liverpool (and Brighton) will be saying the same though.

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I put a £10 bet on Villa to be top 6 before the season started @ 7/1. After Gerrard's last game, they were offering a cash out of 13p. After Emery's first few games £1.27, back to 37p after our 3 losses and £4.43 after our run up to last weeked. After Newcastle, £10.61 (Finally in profit 😆)

Now expecting £80 at the end of the season. UTV!

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