Summer Transfer Window 2022

[Sulberto21]

West Ham and about another 8 clubs are pretty evenly matched for that 7th spot. We’re in that gaggle it just depends on whether we make the most of what we’ve got.

[VillaHatesMe]

2 hours ago, Jas10 said:

Watched PSV play Monaco in a Champions League qualifier today. PSV were the better team until Sangare was subbed off in the 78th minute. Two minutes later Monaco scored to tie it 1-1, and that's where it finished.

[VillaHatesMe]

2 hours ago, GingerCollins29 said:

So frustrating we can't shift certain players, surely a ligue 1 team would take guilbert given his performances last year. El ghazi to an eredivisie club and nakamba would be decent for a newlu promoted prem team

I would guess players like Guilbert and El Ghazi can be moved, but not until late in the window when teams have been forced to give up their dreams of bigger prizes.

[jacketspuds]

£20m for a youth player that has barely played 300 minutes of Premier League football for us is an absolutely incredible piece of business.

Let's hope we re-invest this in another CM as soon as possible.

[thabucks]

Orkun Kokcu from Feyenoord is a great talent and one we should look at …

Quote

In today’s world of player scouting and player recruitment, the use of data is vital. With the majority of clubs being data-driven or heavily incorporating data into their recruitment process, assessing some key metrics surrounding a player is vital. In this data section, we will look at some in possession and out of possession metrics to tell us more about Kokcu and some of his key attributes. The sample shows Kokcu amongst other Eredivisie midfielders with over 500 minutes this season.

Progressive passes are now one of the main metrics used to assess players on ball contribution, especially for midfielders. As shown below, Kokcu is one of Eredivisie’s best progressive passers. With the most accurate progressive passes at 92% accuracy and one of the highest volumes 10.6 per 90. This shows us that Kokcu has the ability to frequently and accurately move the ball forward for his team.

Another metric that can help show Kokcu’s on-ball value is, passes to the final third. As with progressive passes, Kokcu is again excelling in both accuracy and volume.  He has the second-highest volume of passes to the final third with an above-average accuracy.

 https://totalfootballanalysis.com/competitions/eredivisie/orkun-kokcu-at-feyenoord-2021-22-scout-report

[est1874]

7 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

West Ham and about another 8 clubs are pretty evenly matched for that 7th spot. We’re in that gaggle it just depends on whether we make the most of what we’ve got.

We'll need a goalscoring striker for that.

[7392craig]

7 minutes ago, jacketspuds said:

£20m for a youth player that has barely played 300 minutes of Premier League football for us is an absolutely incredible piece of business.

Let's hope we re-invest this in Sangare as soon as possible.

Fixed

[romavillan]

23 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

West Ham and about another 8 clubs are pretty evenly matched for that 7th spot. We’re in that gaggle it just depends on whether we make the most of what we’ve got.

Hmmm, if by being in that gaggle you mean we' *might* just have improved enough to be at the bottom end of those 8 teams then yeah. We're a few years of investment away from the hammers or Leicester etc.

[romavillan]

20 minutes ago, VillaHatesMe said:

I would guess players like Guilbert and El Ghazi can be moved, but not until late in the window when teams have been forced to give up their dreams of bigger prizes.

Plus wages are way higher in England, bang average players (for the Premier League standard) are on £50k a week. There aren't exactly masses of clubs in Europe prepared to pay those kinds of wages for that level of player.

[Aston_Villan4]

3 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Hmmm, if by being in that gaggle you mean we' *might* just have improved enough to be at the bottom end of those 8 teams then yeah. We're a few years of investment away from the hammers or Leicester etc.

A few years? 

[villa4europe]

6 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Hmmm, if by being in that gaggle you mean we' *might* just have improved enough to be at the bottom end of those 8 teams then yeah. We're a few years of investment away from the hammers or Leicester etc.

I'm not sure

Like I said I think it's just a case of consistency, we have too many players who are 8/10 one week and we all go nuts over them and how they have to start the next game and then they put out a 5/10 performance and its baffling

That's Gerrard for me, moyes can do it, he'll get 7/10 most weeks and that's the edge West Ham have over everyone else, Gerrards just got to get them all switched on mentally for a start, we're a really frustrating team rather than necessarily a bad one 

Edited August 2, 2022 by villa4europe

[Peter Griffin]

28 minutes ago, VillaHatesMe said:

Watched PSV play Monaco in a Champions League qualifier today. PSV were the better team until Sangare was subbed off in the 78th minute. Two minutes later Monaco scored to tie it 1-1, and that's where it finished.

Sub'd early to avoid injury following a late evening bid from now 20m richer Aston Villa? 

[bannedfromHandV]

1 hour ago, Peter Griffin said:

Ash was a reported 16m. Barry 12.5m and Milner was 18m + Ireland which probably nets out at about 1m

Oh right, my memory is bad! 

[Peter Griffin]

1 minute ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Oh right, my memory is bad! 

I am not sure it is a memory thing, I think the brain actively tries to suppress bad memories as a form of self protection. I, happily can't remember much of Bruce or Xia's tenure. I remember more about other teams than I do about us duing Learner's era  

[romavillan]

Just now, villa4europe said:

I'm not sure

Like I said I think it's just a case of consistency, we have too many players who are 8/10 one week and we all go nuts over them and how they have to start the next game and then they put out a 5/10 performance and its baffling

That's Gerrard for me, moyes can do it, he'll get 7/10 most weeks and that's the edge West Ham have over everyone else, Gerrards just got to get them all switched on mentally for a start, we're a really frustrating team rather than necessarily a bad one 

That's interesting, you think this group could be coached into being more consistent, we've not seen it under Smith for a full season (at this level) or under Gerrard yet. It also only takes 3 or 4 to have a 5/10 day for us to get stuffed if the other team are bang on it, even if they're near the bottom. Really fine lines.

I agree Moyes is all about being difficult to beat first, making sure they don't lose if they aren't at the races and that's a skill we haven't had for ages in the top league. That is about organisation and as a player knowing your role, knowing that if it isn't your best day if you stick to your job you know everyone else is going to do the same and you'll be hard to beat. Not something that happens overnight either, lots of repetition and being well prepared for games.

I'd say as a group we might be 2 or 3 players of the calibre we've been bringing in recently short of West Ham, but even if we had them and the coaching isn't right we won't be troubling the top end of league much anyway. 

[romavillan]

12 minutes ago, Aston_Villan4 said:

A few years? 

A few windows at the very least if they all go perfectly yeah. Add that to having consistency in the coaching and in a 2/3 years we'll be up there contending.Personally I think if we get 7th this year it'll be an incredible acheivement.

[MrBlack]

6 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said:

So I looked at the finishing positions of teams in the past 3 pl seasons and then compared them to the teams position in the total wage bill table of these teams for the past 3 seasons. There is obviously a strong correlation as one would expect, but not enough to predict the finishing positions of teams with precise accuracy. On average, the finishing position of a team is different to their position in the total wage bill table by about 3.7 positions. 

I tried to use a team's position in terms of transfermarkt squad value as well to try and predict a team's final position as a point of comparison. On average, the finishing position of a team is difference to their position in the transfermarkt squad value table by about 3.5 positions. Transfermarkt squad value position was a better predicter for the 20-21 and 21-22 by worst in 19-20 compared to the total wage bill. There doesn't seem to be any significant difference between both metric's predictive power however so its safe to assume both have about equal predictive power. 

Do the results change if instead of looking at position I looked at points? Similarly, what if instead of using a team's ranking in the total wage bill table and transfermarkt squad value table, I used a team's actual total wage bill and actual squad value to predict how many points a team is expected to get. I only considered these variables for the 21/22 season(out of lazyness). In both cases, there doesn't seem to be much of a difference whether I used points or position or a team's total wage bill and squad value or their position in the wage bill and squad value table.

I was also interested in seeing which variables lead to the best prediction in terms total points at the end of the season. The best result came from using a team's squad value or squad value ranking. On average, the amount of points a team was predicted to get by using transfermarkt squad value was off by 8 points from the actual number. Whilst I didn't do the precise calculation for the 19/20 seasons and 20/21 seasons, the correlations seemed weaker suggesting that the predictions would be even worse for both wage bill and squad value meaning that this 8 points discrepancy is the best case.

Lastly the effect of an increase in total wage bill on the amount of points gained seems to decrease the higher the total wage bill. In other words, an extra 10 million dollars in the wage capacity for a club like leeds is worth more points than if it were given to a club like Man City. I suspect that there may be diminishing returns to financial investment in general in football clubs which is usually expected for most businesses but its interesting to see it in effect in terms of points instead of revenue or profit. Just thought this was an interesting observation.

 

TLDR. Wage and squad value are strongly correlated with end of season points and position but cannot predict with good precision. 

Edit: Nevermind, I **** up. The average difference between finishing position and position on wage table is actually 2.5. The average difference between finishing position and position on squad value table is 2.7. So they were better predictors than I initially thought.

 

Good effort.

On the transfermarkt value being a better predictor last season than previous seasons.. my guess would be that it's down to the science behind those numbers getting more accurate the longer they're around.

As such, every season City finish top 2, their players go up in value and the likelihood of them finishing top increases as they continue to dominate the transfer market. If we say the same for teams that perform well and finish higher up the table, then transfermarkt  increases the value of the players.

They're notoriously bad for underestimating the value of players that haven't moved recently, but I imagine they must get better at if over time. 

The wage thing may have been a more accurate measure in the past, especially given player value predictions were probably very unscientific and even more off their actual value than they are more.  I feel like "wage being a good indicator" was mentioned to me a year or two ago, but it was probably more like 10.

Cheers for the work anyway, very interesting. 

My take away from all this is that if we buy a sangare, or a Werner, or anyone we need.... we'll finish higher up the table than without them. And lo and behold, our squad value will increase at the same time. The logic of a correlation seems sound. 

[Follyfoot]

40 minutes ago, est1874 said:

We'll need a goalscoring striker for that.

[Peter Griffin]

3 minutes ago, romavillan said:

A few windows at the very least if they all go perfectly yeah. Add that to having consistency in the coaching and in a 2/3 years we'll be up there contending.Personally I think if we get 7th this year it'll be an incredible acheivement.

As it stands today I would have us ahead of Leicester. They are on the verge of losing Fofana and Schmichael and Maddison and Tielmans future doesn't look secure

[Chine]

Hopefully a lot of twatter bollox regarding Barkley coming the other way , I’m taking my ball home if it happens