Relegation Avoidance Thread

[Zatman]

6 minutes ago, supermon said:

I can't see us losing twice to Burnley and Norwich seems a bit of a stretch to think we won't pick up any more points.

Oh we will definitely get at least 5 points. I just dont do easy games with Villa. Could see us lose twice to Burnley and get 4 points from Liverpool and city

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Ok, I've seen this narrative pick up recently, but I don't remember Smith having to contend with too many injury issues. The only 2 players who missed a significant amount of games under Smith under were Traore and Bailey, and its not clear whether they would've been able to get into the starting 11 had they been fully fit either especially in hindsight considering Bailey's recent form with us. The 3-5-2 we played was also not forced upon him either, he chose to play that formation to accommodate Ings and Watkins together. I agree Gerrard has the better squad but I don't think he's had much better luck with injuries.

Smith made 21 starting line up changes from the previous line up in games 2 to 11, while game 1 also included 3 debutants. Only ever present starting player was Cash. The entire previous starting line up was retained just twice. The majority of the changes were forced through injuries, match fitness or covid/quarantine, rather than choice. Compare this to the first 11 games of the previous season with only 10 changes, 4 of which came in the 11th fixture, while there had been 9 ever present players in the first 10 games.

On the Smith formation change, there definitely was availability pressure with Buendia unavailable and Traore and Bailey not fully match fit (or unavailable entirely for subsequent games) leaving minimal wide attacking options.

Gerrard by comparison has made 34 starting line up changes from the previous fixture in his games 2 to 20 while his first game included 3 changes from Smith's last. Gerrard has had one more ever present than Smith, with Martinez (who only missed the Chelsea game under Smith because of quarantine rules following international break) joining Cash. Rough estimate maybe more than half of Gerrard's changes look like they were down to injury or suspension rather than choice.

So not as many changes as Smith's games this season, but not that far off (1.8 changes per game vs 2.1 for Smith) and a lot more than I'd assumed. Furthermore, Smith only managed to field the same line up in consecutive games twice in his eleven games. But Gerrard has also only done this twice in almost double the amount of games. So while I think Smith was definitely unlucky with player availability, it looks like Gerrard might have possibly had it almost as bad, but has taken 1.3ppg to Smith's 0.9ppg.

 

 

 

[Indigo]

I think there were a couple of extreme examples - Watford and Brentford off the top of my head - with the availability of players Smith had that possibly skew perception. Those being so early in the season were probably quite a contributing factor to how it ended up going for him.

[Tayls]

30 minutes ago, Mantis said:

But you don't actually think that though.

I honestly do. I think we will go on a crazy run of defeats. 

[Tayls]

16 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Everton aren't picking up another 7 points. No chance

Of course they will, just to make things more difficult for ourselves. 

[Zatman]

7 minutes ago, Indigo said:

I think there were a couple of extreme examples - Watford and Brentford off the top of my head - with the availability of players Smith had that possibly skew perception. Those being so early in the season were probably quite a contributing factor to how it ended up going for him.

Chelsea we played well and Buendia and Martinez were not allowed play was also a factor

[Demitri_C]

Its even ridiculous wrle are talking about relegation after where we were. So deflating

[DCJonah]

3 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Ok, I've seen this narrative pick up recently, but I don't remember Smith having to contend with too many injury issues. The only 2 players who missed a significant amount of games under Smith under were Traore and Bailey, and its not clear whether they would've been able to get into the starting 11 had they been fully fit either especially in hindsight considering Bailey's recent form with us. The 3-5-2 we played was also not forced upon him either, he chose to play that formation to accommodate Ings and Watkins together. I agree Gerrard has the better squad but I don't think he's had much better luck with injuries. 

Smith's PPG for us this season was 0.9. Gerrard's is 1.3.  To put it into context, that PPG ratio under Smith if continued for the rest of the season would put us in the relegation zone. The PPG under Gerrard would have us in the top 10. I consider that a dramatic improvement. Now you can make the case that Gerrard isn't performing better with the team compared to Smith last season, and that's a different can of worms, but this season its not even close. 

 

 

Then your memory is very flawed. 

[calcifer]

44 minutes ago, Zatman said:

If we lose every game its 11 in a row. Be probably a Premier League record, we didnt do that in our relegation season

We lost 11 in a row that season

[Xela]

14 minutes ago, Tayls said:

I honestly do. I think we will go on a crazy run of defeats. 

Last time you said that we won 3 in a row, so lets hope that happens!

[Xela]

Watford and Norwich are pretty much down already.

I've done a 'predictor' table and i've got us coming in 10th. Blind faith? Maybe, but we've got, on paper, a nice run in, 2x Burnley, Norwich and Palace at home and an inconsistent Leicester. Liverpool and Citeh will be defeats. 

[Kuwabatake Sanjuro]

10 minutes ago, Xela said:

Watford and Norwich are pretty much down already.

I've done a 'predictor' table and i've got us coming in 10th. Blind faith? Maybe, but we've got, on paper, a nice run in, 2x Burnley, Norwich and Palace at home and an inconsistent Leicester. Liverpool and Citeh will be defeats. 

A pessimistic one from me, still think it will be somewhere between 12th and 16th, which is still nowhere near good enough.

[WakefieldVillan]

We're 200/1 with Skybet to go down. 

It was 500/1 last week.

Can't see it happening with our home fixtures left. But I'm sticking £20 on it just in case.

And no, I won't be happy with 4K! 

[Xela]

1 minute ago, Kuwabatake Sanjuro said:

 

A pessimistic one from me, still think it will be somewhere between 12th and 16th, which is still nowhere near good enough.

I've got Liverpool winning it as well and Spurs coming 4th.

 

[The_Steve]

54 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Everton aren't picking up another 7 points. No chance

Yep. People need to chill. 

[Rustibrooks]

Wow we aren’t getting relegated lads, we are also 4 points from 10th. 
 

We’ll be fine.

[picicata]

We're going to beat Leicester this weekend so that should put this thread to bed

[M_Afro]

Everton are in big trouble. They should have stuck with Rafa. We will be well clear of it come the end of the season.

[useless]

If we're in trouble then peep Leeds' fixtures, they have three less points than us have played a game more, and three of their next four are against Man City, Arsenal, and Chelsea, the other game away to Palace won't exactly be easy. If anyone is going to get dragged into it will be them.

Edited April 21, 2022 by useless

[VillaParkAvenue]

55 minutes ago, Indigo said:

I think there were a couple of extreme examples - Watford and Brentford off the top of my head - with the availability of players Smith had that possibly skew perception. Those being so early in the season were probably quite a contributing factor to how it ended up going for him.

Early this season Villa had a lot of injuries, but so had many other clubs. Maybe related to the euros and poor pre seasons? Now, injuries in the Prem must be almost at an all time low with many clubs having almost fully fit squads.