Mic09 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 We also have to remember many players will increase the wages significantly once we get CL football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East London Villa Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 15 minutes ago, Mic09 said: We also have to remember many players will increase the wages significantly once we get CL football. And as a result that would make it less appealing for those players getting a salary bump to leave the club permanently. I don’t know how many players would have a clause like that in their contract, but it would cause us a problem if it applies to someone we’re looking to move on. Only Olsen is out of contract in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeroy Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 15 hours ago, Galway Lion said: You do realise we’ve gone from mid table Championship to possibly CL team in four years? The value of the club has increased from £75m to +£500m even without CL football. We’re about to announce a mega deal with Adidas along with a lucrative new shirt sponsorship. Atarios/ Comcast coming on board will also make us a major player. I’d say the strides our owners have made has been astonishing and they are finding ways to compete with the big 6 who have operated a cartel for years Yes they've done an incredible job but these losses look concerning to me, although I trust that they know what they are doing and we don't have to sell any key players this summer. We've made a loss of £71.4m over the past two financial years (including allowable PSR losses), we made big losses in the FY before that but owing to COVID that was normal. We cannot make a bigger loss than £33.6m next year (including allowable losses) or we breach PSR rules. Our revenue should increase substantially whether we finish 4th or 5th this season (our most likely positions IMO). The c. £260m that CV Byrne posts looks about right to me, although could be slightly higher. We clearly need to do something about the wages which has ballooned in the last 2 years, but we can do this without selling key players. The likes of Olsen, Chambers, Dendoncker, Coutinho, Hause, Sanson, etc take up a fairly large chunk of wages and are not needed moving forward. But clearly, if we make Champions League, if we want to do well in the competition and still compete for the top 4 of the Premier League next season we need to strengthen the squad and the first team, that much is obvious. Particularly when Kamara is injured, Mings and Buendia are coming back from long term injury, and there are question marks over the likes of Cash. We need two new starters minimum this summer IMO before selling anyone (right back and defensive midfielder) and given both our left backs are getting older and Sousa doesn't look a viable option at the moment we definitely need a left back if we move Digne on (who I would prefer stays but can see why we might sell given his age). If we can sell Carlos at a decent price (something I think we'll do if the opportunity arises), we'll need a replacement for him too as we'll only have 3 CBs and one of them will be 31 and coming back from long term injury. So some work to do and we can't afford to be hamstrung by our financial situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 24 minutes ago, East London Villa said: And as a result that would make it less appealing for those players getting a salary bump to leave the club permanently. I don’t know how many players would have a clause like that in their contract, but it would cause us a problem if it applies to someone we’re looking to move on. Only Olsen is out of contract in the summer. Wouldnt be surprised if Coutinho had that in his deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAnty Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, VillaJ100 said: So how much will we have to spend on players this summer? Without selling We have to buy Archer back right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 9 hours ago, paul514 said: A lot of the pant wetting on here is because the posters don't understand the difference between a real loss and an FFP loss. You buy a player for 50m on a 5 year deal keep him 2 years and then sell him for 30m..... That is a 20m pound loss in the real world. However, for FFP the 50m fee is amortized over 5 years (10m per year) so his book value when he was sold was 30m and therefore no loss was made. Depends what context you’re taking this, but this wouldn’t show as a loss in annual accounts (assuming the sale happens in that period). e.g: Year 1 - Bought £50m, £10m booked Year 2 - £10m booked Year 3 (reporting period) - Sold for £30m, remaining value booked (£30m) The accounts would (hypothetically) show as £0m - not as a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 For non-accountants like myself, the only question is, whether such accounts are a matter of fact or a matter of opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, MakemineVanilla said: For non-accountants like myself, the only question is, whether such accounts are a matter of fact or a matter of opinion? Accounts can be read In whichever way you please The facts are unclear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 12 minutes ago, bobzy said: Accounts can be read In whichever way you please The facts are unclear. Delightful display Snowdrops bow their pure white heads To the sun's glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic09 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, East London Villa said: And as a result that would make it less appealing for those players getting a salary bump to leave the club permanently. I don’t know how many players would have a clause like that in their contract, but it would cause us a problem if it applies to someone we’re looking to move on. Only Olsen is out of contract in the summer. Apparently the CL bump caused some issues at Newcastle. Old Mike Ashley contracts (like Targett) have increased massively. As someone above mentioned, Coutinho could have one, but so could anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Zatman said: Wouldnt be surprised if Coutinho had that in his deal Almost certainly as part of the Scouse cartel that was operating then. Thankfully that has now largely gone and hopefully no further long term bombs are ticking away. Edited March 5 by DaveAV1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSvillain Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Zatman said: Wouldnt be surprised if Coutinho had that in his deal Monchi is scouring the Dark Web for hitmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoVillan1983 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 One of the tough aspects of all of this - if we want to push on then we have to raise prices at VP substantially. It's coming, and given the season ticket waitlist I'm pretty sure they know they can push it through as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul514 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 hours ago, jimmygreaves said: Or several fringe players.... No, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO why are people still saying this? So many people repeatedly explain how FFP works and loads just don't read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul514 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 hours ago, Leeroy said: Yes they've done an incredible job but these losses look concerning to me, although I trust that they know what they are doing and we don't have to sell any key players this summer. We've made a loss of £71.4m over the past two financial years (including allowable PSR losses), we made big losses in the FY before that but owing to COVID that was normal. We cannot make a bigger loss than £33.6m next year (including allowable losses) or we breach PSR rules. Our revenue should increase substantially whether we finish 4th or 5th this season (our most likely positions IMO). The c. £260m that CV Byrne posts looks about right to me, although could be slightly higher. We clearly need to do something about the wages which has ballooned in the last 2 years, but we can do this without selling key players. The likes of Olsen, Chambers, Dendoncker, Coutinho, Hause, Sanson, etc take up a fairly large chunk of wages and are not needed moving forward. But clearly, if we make Champions League, if we want to do well in the competition and still compete for the top 4 of the Premier League next season we need to strengthen the squad and the first team, that much is obvious. Particularly when Kamara is injured, Mings and Buendia are coming back from long term injury, and there are question marks over the likes of Cash. We need two new starters minimum this summer IMO before selling anyone (right back and defensive midfielder) and given both our left backs are getting older and Sousa doesn't look a viable option at the moment we definitely need a left back if we move Digne on (who I would prefer stays but can see why we might sell given his age). If we can sell Carlos at a decent price (something I think we'll do if the opportunity arises), we'll need a replacement for him too as we'll only have 3 CBs and one of them will be 31 and coming back from long term injury. So some work to do and we can't afford to be hamstrung by our financial situation. Yes which is why we should sell a high profit player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Teams like Villa and Newcastle could end up buying from each other in a weird turn of events. Get the full amount of the sale on the current year's books and amortise purchases by the length of the contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul514 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Wainy316 said: Teams like Villa and Newcastle could end up buying from each other in a weird turn of events. Get the full amount of the sale on the current year's books and amortise purchases by the length of the contract. It is an option but seriously, clear out the players that should be cleared out and sell one of our circa 100m pound player bring in 5 more and the whole situation is hunky dory. I posted this on the transfer thread a couple of weeks back with details. It is so obvious Quote Ok this will be a long post but I will try and break it up a bit so it is more readable.... These are the players I would sell/release in the summer all figures are in euros and from Transfermarkt. The amortized value is what he costs us per year on the accounts and the book value is the total amount of amortization left until he he has a value of zero for FFP. This means for an FFP profit on a player he must be sold for more than his book value. I also think it is worth mentioning how these values are worked out.... lets say we sign a player on a 5 year contract for 50m. After 3 years we sign him to a new 5 year contract this means for the first 3 years he is with us he amortizes at 10m per year making his book value 20m when he signs a 5 year extension to his contract. He will then amortize at 4m per year for the next five years. I hope that is simple to understand. Lenglet - End of loan Zaniolo - End of loan Chambers - 29 in the summer, 1 year left on his deal brought for 0m, House - 29 in the summer, 1 year left on his deal brought for 3.4m, I don't have exact FFP figures for him as I didn't know the length of his first contract with us but it will be a negligible amount of amortisation left Carlos - 31 in the summer, 2 years left on his deal brought for 31m He is amortizing at 7.75m per year and his book value in the summer will be 15.5m Digne - 31in the summer, 2 years left on his deal, brought for 30m. He is amortizing at 6.66m per year and has a book value of 13.33m Cash - 27 in the summer, 3 years left on his deal, brought for 15.75m He is amortizing at 1.58m per year and has a book value of 4.74m Dendonker - 29 in the summer, 2 years left on his deal, brought for 15m He is amortizing at 3.75m per year and has a book value of 7.5m Sanson - 30 in the summer, 1 year left on his deal, brought for 15.8 million euros He is amortizing at 3.95m per year as he only has one year left on his deal his book value is also 3.95m Coutinho - 32 in the summer, 2 years left on his deal, brought for 20 million euros He is amortizing at 5m per year and has a book value of 10m Watkins - 28 (29 in december), 4 years left on his deal, brought for 34 million euros He is amortizing at 2.72m per year and has a book value of 10.88m The total amortization per year of all the players mentioned is 31.41m Euros which is 26.9m Pounds The total book value of all the players mentioned is 65.9m Euros which is 56.4m Pounds My aim would be to cut the fat off the squad and then trying to bring in a smaller amount higher quality players as a whole without breaking FFP restrictions and (Hopefully) reducing the wage bill as PSR (profit and sustainability rules) is changing meaning we have to bring our wage bill down to 70% of our revenue within a couple of years. The price tags for my suggestions are from media reported figures or their release figure. The links are for their transfermarkt profile and their scouting report from FBREF for their data. Jean-Clair Todibo, 24 - Centre back, Nice, 35m I want this player as he is a lot like Pau Torres and we have all seen how much we missed him whilst he was injured taking the ball out of defence and his skill with progressive passes. He will be genuine competition for Konsa and will probably win out in that race. https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jean-clair-todibo/profil/spieler/605184 https://fbref.com/en/players/88f130ed/scout/365_m1/Jean-Clair-Todibo-Scouting-Report Adrien Truffert, 22 - Left back, Rennes, 20m I think this guy is already as good as what we already have but he has a high ceiling and time on his side to reach that potential. https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/adrien-truffert/profil/spieler/654539 https://fbref.com/en/players/5d0e0a1f/scout/365_m1/Adrien-Truffert-Scouting-Report Jeremie Frimpong, 23 - Right back (YES HE IS ONE), Leverkusen, 38m (Release Clause) Straight in for first choice, the guy is excellent at going forward and at least as good as Cash defensively, he can play right back, right wing back or even in midfield. I expect this would be a hard signing for us to make. https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jeremie-frimpong/profil/spieler/484547 https://fbref.com/en/players/74f2e748/scout/365_m1/Jeremie-Frimpong-Scouting-Report Martin Zubimendi, 25, - DCM, Sociedad, 52m (Release Clause) I could be persuaded to sign a different DCM as this one will be hard to sign and expensive. https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/martin-zubimendi/profil/spieler/423440 https://fbref.com/en/players/3ee0dd59/Martin-Zubimendi Jonathan David, 24 - Striker, Lille, 40m As you all know the striker market is difficult, but this is where most of the FFP profit comes from in my suggestions. I picked him as he should be relatively straight forward for us to pick up, he plays somewhat similarly to Watkins but he is not a carbon copy. His record last year was excellent and his data for this year is very good. If he had more shooting opportunities then his numbers would be much higher. https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jonathan-david/profil/spieler/533738 https://fbref.com/en/players/ce50fd99/scout/365_m1/Jonathan-David-Scouting-Report So according to the figures I have used for purchasing these players that is 185m Pounds. I can't know if we could get them to sign a 5 year or 4 year contract so I am going to list both and it would probably be somewhere in between. So the 185m amortized over 5 years would be 37m per year or over 4 years it would be 46.25m As the suggested sales/released are amortizing at 26.9m Pounds my suggestions increase amortization by 19.35m per year over what it is currently (assuming the worst case scenario of 4 year contracts for everyone) but I think if we sold all those players whose book value currently is 56.4m we would receive something like 150m with Watkins and Cash bringing in the bulk of that money. This would mean a 93.6m FFP profit on their book value allowing us to make these purchases as long as the owners inject the remaining cash (35m) into the club. I think those players would effectively lock off all the defensive positions, all the central midfield positions, as far as I am concerned the forward positions, leaving small question marks over our wide midfield positions (the Ramsey/McGinn roles but Tielemans can play there as can Buendia) and our striker position (will David work out? Is Duran a good back up?). That could be reassessed in the following summer. It also brings down the age of the squad significantly whilst having better prospects of resale value in the future over the current players. How much higher could Watkins value be in the future given he would be 29 the summer after soon to turn 30 for example. This is how we get to spend lots on players Even if you don't agree with some or all of my suggestions, I hope you can see the value of a post like this that explains a bit what clubs are having to deal with when it comes to spending with FFP and PSR rules. Edited March 5 by paul514 adding the post from the transfer thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 minutes ago, paul514 said: It is an option but seriously, clear out the players that should be cleared out and sell one of our circa 100m pound player bring in 5 more and the whole situation is hunky dory. I posted this on the transfer thread a couple of weeks back with details. It is so obvious I’m not convinced that “clearing out the players that should be cleared out” is quite as straightforward as you make it sound. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfTimePost Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Fans gonna be pissed when they realise that selling players was also part of the "Strategic Business Plan" Gif size limit is way too low to be usable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul514 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, briny_ear said: I’m not convinced that “clearing out the players that should be cleared out” is quite as straightforward as you make it sound. yea of course one or two always remain for one reason or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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