The economic impact of Covid-19

[chrisp65]

Been lucky enough to go to Paris a few times.

One observation, a couple of times I’ve absolutely massacred my way through some pretty rough French language, people have laughed, people have corrected me, people have switched to speak english for me. I’ve also observed others just speak english at French people. Those people often get a fairly rude unco-operative attitude.

Anyway, I’ve a couple of trips out coming up. I’ve got to go to Bovey Tracey, Worcester, Colwyn Bay, Diss, and Forest Hill.

I’ll rank the transport provision for each location. Working on Dem’s comments, I’m guessing getting across to Forest Hill will be the hardest.

 

 

[Xela]

11 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Diss

How long is that going to take? Overnighter? 

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, Xela said:

How long is that going to take? Overnighter? 

Yes, and I’ve just been looking at hotels... thin pickings.

[Wainy316]

I once slept under a shop doorway waiting for the 6am Eurostar from Gare Du Nord.  There was some right freaks about but I wonder if I was the worse one. 

[chrisp65]

 

 

[Davkaus]

They picked a terrible picture for it. That guy's back is going to be **** if that's how he works for 40 hours a week.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, Davkaus said:

They picked a terrible picture for it. That guy's back is going to be **** if that's how he works for 40 hours a week.

That’s true.

Its ok saying work from him if you want, but do employers have an obligation to ensure that you have a reasonable work setup? 

[KentVillan]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54125690

Quote

Unemployment: Planned redundancies twice the rate of last recession

By Ben KingBusiness reporter, BBC News

• 2 hours ago

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Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES Image captionA number of household names have announced redundancy plans since the pandemic began

Employers in Britain are planning more than twice as many redundancies than they did at the height of the last recession, new figures show.

About 180,000 job cuts were planned from January to March 2009, while 380,000 were planned from May to July this year.

Completed redundancies could reach 735,000 this autumn, researchers say.

The figures were obtained by an Institute for Employment Studies (IES) Freedom of Information request.

Social distancing measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19 brought large parts of the UK economy to a standstill, forcing workers to stay at home, closing shops and bringing transport to a halt.

As a result, many businesses have been forced to consider reducing their workforces by making employees redundant.

Employers in England, Scotland and Wales must notify the Insolvency Service if they plan to make 20 or more workers redundant in any single "establishment" using a form called HR1.

This information is not usually published, but on 8 September a Freedom of Information request by the BBC revealed that employers had listed more than 380,000 positions as at risk between May and July 2020.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES

The IES has now obtained and analysed data stretching back as far as 2008.

This shows that the current redundancy wave is more than double the previous three-monthly peak of 180,000 from January to March 2009.

Then the crisis, which had begun in the finance industry, was affecting most of the economy - and forcing many employers to reduce their staff.

"Comparing what is happening now with what was happening in the last recession shows us we are experiencing a jobs crisis unlike anything we have seen before," said Tony Wilson, Director of the IES.

The IES is calling for extra support for viable firms to help them retain staff, as well as training and advice to help those who lose their jobs find new employment rapidly.

A government spokesperson said: "Supporting jobs is an absolute priority which is why we've set out a comprehensive 'Plan for Jobs' to protect, create and support jobs across the UK by providing significant, targeted support where it is needed the most."

Government measures include the £2bn "kickstart scheme" to encourage employers to create new training placements and apprenticeships, extra work coaches in job centres, and a £1,000 incentive to encourage employers to bring staff back from furlough.

Will these planned redundancies be completed?

Because they are filed at the start of the redundancy process, HR1 forms give an early indication of what is happening in the labour market.

The HR1 redundancy figures don't pick up employers cutting fewer than 20 jobs, so the final total of redundancies is usually higher.

The Office for National Statistics also publishes a redundancy count based on the Labour Force Survey, which is used to calculate the monthly unemployment rate.

This is always published a few months after the data is gathered, so it hasn't yet picked up a big spike in redundancies or unemployment.

However, Labour Force Survey redundancy figures have been around 20% higher than HR1 figures in recent years.

On this basis, the IES estimates that 445,000 jobs could be made redundant between July and September, considerably worse than the three-month peak in the previous recession.

During that recession, however, actual redundancies were 80% higher than notified redundancies - which could lead to as many as 735,000 positions being cut at the height of the coronavirus crisis.

However, companies sometimes announce plans redundancies which they don't actually make, because circumstances change.

Early 2019, for example, saw a big spike in redundancy plans which were never completed. Mr Wilson believes they could have been linked to fears of a no-deal Brexit, which did not happen.

The 2018 spike could be linked to the collapse of the construction company Carillion, which had a lesser impact on jobs than initially feared.

Companies in Northern Ireland file HR1 forms with the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and they are not included in these figures.

Pasted in full because I think the whole thing is worth reading, including all the caveats.

[Nicho]

9 hours ago, Davkaus said:

They picked a terrible picture for it. That guy's back is going to be **** if that's how he works for 40 hours a week.

I’ve recently had to move back to my desk after working in the sofa/in the garden for the last few months after I got properly bored of working from home.

Had to go to the chiropractor last week as my pelvis and 5 vertebrae are out of alignment due to the way I’ve been sitting.

To keep on topic, I can’t be spending money in chiropractors every week. Damn Covid.

[HanoiVillan]

10 hours ago, Genie said:

That’s true.

Its ok saying work from him if you want, but do employers have an obligation to ensure that you have a reasonable work setup? 

They certainly have a moral obligation, but there is no enforceable legal obligation at this stage. This will have to be a cause for political activism for as long as employers choose to keep people away from the office. The other issue worth fighting is who is paying for the electricity bill. 

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

They certainly have a moral obligation, but there is no enforceable legal obligation at this stage. This will have to be a cause for political activism for as long as employers choose to keep people away from the office. The other issue worth fighting is who is paying for the electricity bill. 

Someone on here posted the other day that there is a £6 per week claimable tax offset for people who have been told to work from home. I think it may have been @bickster 

[Davkaus]

Worth pointing out that it's tax relief on £6, so £1.20 a week if you're a basis rate taxpayer. Some companies are paying £6 power week directly, but you only get the 20% if you're claiming relief.

To be fair, my utility bills are going to go up by nowhere near as much as my transport costs have dropped.

[Genie]

I do a tax return so I’ll have a look at it next year. Maybe a little windfall to be had, won’t hold my breath though. As @Davkaus says, my other savings are an order of 10x higher than bigger utility bills.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Genie

[HanoiVillan]

29 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

To be fair, my utility bills are going to go up by nowhere near as much as my transport costs have dropped.

 

25 minutes ago, Genie said:

As @Davkaus says, my other savings are an order of 10x higher than bigger utility bills.

I suspect this will be true for a majority of people - maybe even the vast majority - but it won't be true for everyone, because some people are recompensed for their travel costs. When I say this will be an issue worth 'fighting for', I should be clearer that unlike the fight for equipment to be provided to make a safe and healthy workspace at home, which may well be a political fight, the fight for covering parts of electricity bills is more likely to be a ontract demand of the sort of highly-sought employees who can demand perks in interviews.

[Genie]

I expect there’s a lot of people who have taxable perks like company cars and fuel cards that they are not using which will be an issue. 

[Davkaus]

Yeah I can see some people losing out. Towards the end of last year, someone on my team bought a house right next to our office, in one of the most expensive areas of the city, purely so that he could walk to work. Whoops. 

[OutByEaster?]

13 hours ago, KentVillan said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54125690

Pasted in full because I think the whole thing is worth reading, including all the caveats.

Do these figures only go up to September?

If they do, they haven't even started on the worst bit - there's the possibility of another million people being made redundant between the end of October (the end of furlough) and Christmas.

Then we're straight into hard Brexit.

The article is about how bad things are and I have a feeling we're just on the parade lap.

 

[bannedfromHandV]

18 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

 

 

How is working from home supporting local businesses? 
 

Surely there are as many if not more businesses that will suffer as a result of less people commuting and being in a workplace?

Unless im missing something, which is wholly possible.

[bickster]

Just now, bannedfromHandV said:

How is working from home supporting local businesses?

Because people no longer go to city centers as much. I posted an article a short while back about how the independent traders association (or whatever they are called), were not backing the Govts call to get everyone back to work because small independent local shops had actually done better than usual business during lockdown

This really is the main reason Govt wants people to go back to work as I and others have been saying all along, it's about big corporate landlords and rents.

[ml1dch]

4 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

How is working from home supporting local businesses? 
 

Surely there are as many if not more businesses that will suffer as a result of less people commuting and being in a workplace?

Unless im missing something, which is wholly possible.

The logic is that if you need to pop out of the house for lunch, or a coffee, or a break then you are going to your local shops and cafes rather than Pret or Subway in the town / city centre.

Whether it's true or not I have no idea, but that's the theory.