TRO Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) Just an interesting thought, should we get relegated and have to navigate our way back.....what should we be looking towards in our style of play. There is no evidence to suggest offensive or defensive football brings home the bacon....not on its own. during the last 10 years in the Championship analysing the top 6 teams in each season....there is no clear pattern that one or the other is prevalent. In fact 2014/15 and 2015/16 had the biggest disparity of goals for and against, respectively....so no trend there. I think its fair to say you need to be competent at both....and know when to be asserting both. The most Defensive season was 2015/16 when Burnley & Middlesbrough shared the spoils The most Offensive season was 2014/15 the season before, when Bournemoth & Watford Went up...like one extreme to the other. In 2016/17 Newcastle scored 9 more goals than Brighton with the same goals against 40...only to go up with 1 point more This season in the championship so far Brentford have scored 16 goals more than Forest and still on the same points as Forest 60...They have also scored same goals as WBA and less against with Albion having a 10 point advantage. Food for thought. Its clear, its all about points, despite us getting precious about goals for or against.....its about winning and turning draws in to wins or losses in to draws. I just thought it was interesting to check out....even though most folk know this. Edited May 12, 2020 by TRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 4 hours ago, TRO said: Just an interesting thought, should we get relegated and have to navigate our way back.....what should we be looking towards in our style of play. There is no evidence to suggest offensive or defensive football brings home the bacon....not on its own. during the last 10 years in the Championship analysing the top 6 teams in each season....there is no clear pattern that one or the other is prevalent. In fact 2014/15 and 2015/16 had the biggest disparity of goals for and against, respectively....so no trend there. I think its fair to say you need to be competent at both....and know when to be asserting both. The most Defensive season was 2015/16 when Burnley & Middlesbrough shared the spoils The most Offensive season was 2014/15 the season before, when Bournemoth & Watford Went up...like one extreme to the other. In 2016/17 Newcastle scored 9 more goals than Brighton with the same goals against 40...only to go up with 1 point more This season in the championship so far Brentford have scored 16 goals more than Forest and still on the same points as Forest 60...They have also scored same goals as WBA and less against with Albion having a 10 point advantage. Food for thought. Its clear, its all about points, despite us getting precious about goals for or against.....its about winning and turning draws in to wins or losses in to draws. I just thought it was interesting to check out....even though most folk know this. It depends on the type of players you have really but I’d rather the Smith way than the Bruce way. Bournemouth were a really exciting team when they got promoted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Keep Heaton, Mings, McGinn and Samatta and that's a pretty good spine to get us straight back up in deserted stadiums. El Ghazi was good in the run in last time and likes of Gulibert and Targett would be better down there aswell. Said it before but I'd be expecting top 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 If we went down the intention would be to finish 1st with Smith. The mindset has to be like this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Keep Heaton, Mings, McGinn and Samatta and that's a pretty good spine to get us straight back up in deserted stadiums. El Ghazi was good in the run in last time and likes of Gulibert and Targett would be better down there aswell. Said it before but I'd be expecting top 2. Konsa and Hourihane are pretty solid in the Championship as well plus Jota and think Luiz would look better down there as well. Could even recall free scoring Scott Hogan I think a lot of people underestimated the jump into the Premier League and are now overestimating the drop down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Zatman said: Konsa and Hourihane are pretty solid in the Championship as well plus Jota and think Luiz would look better down there as well. Could even recall free scoring Scott Hogan I think a lot of people underestimated the jump into the Premier League and are now overestimating the drop down The big problem in our three previous seasons in the championship was the ridiculous bad starts we made to those seasons. Pretty much 2 wins in first 8-9 games in all three so playing catch up especially in the same when Cardiff went up in 2nd, they won their first five that year so we pretty much conceded a 10 point difference to them by September which was crucial in the end as we were always lagging behind them. DS would also know he'd be in massive danger of losing his job if we made a poor start so I'd fully expect us to hit the ground running. As I've said before though if next season is going to be 3/4 behind closed doors I don't really care what division we're in as I'd struggle to muster much enthusiasm for it. Edited May 12, 2020 by VillaChris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 We were supposed to be promoted this season and work toward becoming a top 10 Premier League club the next 3-5 years. If we get relegated we're a whole year behind schedule which would mean Dean has failed and shouldn't be in a job. Remember we went 10 games without winning a game when Jack was injured last season under Dean. Ya'll are talking about top 2 and automatic promotion... if we lose McGinn and Jack even top 6 will be a challenge to achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Should we be sent down, I think that we'd struggle to keep McGinn, Mings and obviously Jack. I suspect that 2 or 3 others, may also not fancy a season in the Championship. That would then leave us with another major rebuilding job to do. I think that what we would have left, with some astute signings could get us straight back up, but it wouldn't be easy, so let's hope it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, John said: Should we be sent down, I think that we'd struggle to keep McGinn, Mings and obviously Jack. I suspect that 2 or 3 others, may also not fancy a season in the Championship. That would then leave us with another major rebuilding job to do. I think that what we would have left, with some astute signings could get us straight back up, but it wouldn't be easy, so let's hope it doesn't happen. Luiz has started to establish himself in the Brazil squad. I very much doubt he would follow us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, villalad21 said: We were supposed to be promoted this season and work toward becoming a top 10 Premier League club the next 3-5 years. If we get relegated we're a whole year behind schedule which would mean Dean has failed and shouldn't be in a job. your 1st statement means that your 2nd statement isn't necessarily true and Sheffield Utd and Wolves both prove that your top 10 in 3-5 years statement isn't impossible if you get it right in the championship and come up strong, if you take our starting position as the 1st July has there been a weaker team promoted in recent years? Edited May 13, 2020 by villa4europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 hours ago, villalad21 said: We were supposed to be promoted this season and work toward becoming a top 10 Premier League club the next 3-5 years. If we get relegated we're a whole year behind schedule which would mean Dean has failed and shouldn't be in a job. Remember we went 10 games without winning a game when Jack was injured last season under Dean. Ya'll are talking about top 2 and automatic promotion... if we lose McGinn and Jack even top 6 will be a challenge to achieve. That's so right, Smith should've been fired for getting Villa promoted a year early...........how dare he!!! Additionally despite a 10 game without winning streak Smith got us promoted.........sorry, Jack got us promoted and Smith was just lucky to be there. Smith fault we lost 10 games, Smith gets no credit that we got promoted, Jack should get the credit for that. By your logic that means it's not Smith's fault if we get relegated it's Jack's, that means Smith shouldnt be fired as it's not his fault. Smith have no credit for promotion but the blame for a hypothetical relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, villalad21 said: Luiz has started to establish himself in the Brazil squad. I very much doubt he would follow us down. So who will being paying us 15m for Luiz? I mean he wasnt getting a game at Man City, was loaned out but now he has PL experience and is establishing himself in the Brazil squad, so surely we'll have plenty interested in him paying 15m+. In fact we should be asking more for him given those stats....plenty of suitors for him......................oh wait! who is going to pay that for him at the moment....nobody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, villa4europe said: and Sheffield Utd and Wolves both prove that your top 10 in 3-5 years statement isn't impossible if you get it right in the championship and come up strong, if you take our starting position as the 1st July has there been a weaker team promoted in recent years? That's true. I just predict it will be very tough for us if we lose Jack and McGinn. But it's true Wolves and Sheff Utd shows it's possible. Those clubs should be an inspiration for the Championship. Edited May 13, 2020 by villalad21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, nick76 said: That's so right, Smith should've been fired for getting Villa promoted a year early...........how dare he!!! Additionally despite a 10 game without winning streak Smith got us promoted.........sorry, Jack got us promoted and Smith was just lucky to be there. Smith fault we lost 10 games, Smith gets no credit that we got promoted, Jack should get the credit for that. By your logic that means it's not Smith's fault if we get relegated it's Jack's, that means Smith shouldnt be fired as it's not his fault. Smith have no credit for promotion but the blame for a hypothetical relegation. No he shouldn't be sacked for getting promoted but if he get relegated. It would set us back a whole year and would be an economically disaster for the football club. He's got the financial backing to avoid relegation. But we can still survive. Season ain't over yet. Edited May 13, 2020 by villalad21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, villalad21 said: No he shouldn't be sacked for getting promoted but if he get relegated. He's got the financial backing to avoid relegation. But we can still survive. Season ain't over yet. So you're very black and white, that if we are relegated he should be fired but if he stays up he shouldnt....no matter if he is relegated on goal difference or lets say 10 points? Then if we are relegated who is best to come in and take over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Just now, nick76 said: So you're very black and white, that if we are relegated he should be fired but if he stays up he shouldnt....no matter if he is relegated on goal difference or lets say 10 points? Then if we are relegated who is best to come in and take over? The requirement and goal of the season was to avoid relegation. To establish ourselves in the Premier League. If he get us relegated he has not achieved that goal and failed. We would very possibly lose Jack and McGinn and it would be very tough to get back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, villalad21 said: The requirement and goal of the season was to avoid relegation. To establish ourselves in the Premier League. Your goal... For all you / we know purslow and the owners might see Smith as our Dyche, if we get relegated it's because the team wasn't ready and the expectation is we have a record breaking season in the championship getting promoted and then pushing on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, villalad21 said: The requirement and goal of the season was to avoid relegation. To establish ourselves in the Premier League. If he get us relegated he has not achieved that goal and failed. We would very possibly lose Jack and McGinn and it would be very tough to get back up. So therefore he should be fired? See i have a different take. To me there are three scenarios 1) we get relegated - for me he's the best person to get us back promoted so he stays 2) we survive and we invest - for me he's stays and given opportunity to grow with the Villa 3) we survive and the owners want to really invest and target the likes of Bale, Coutinho or real top end players..........never going to happen - then obviously i would be targeting a real top end manager potentially Given reality is 1) or 2) I'm happy with Smith. I dont believe it would just be Smith failed it would be Smith, the recruitment staff and the players. I know the buck stops at the manager, which is fine but given if we are relegated I think Smith is the best option for promotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, nick76 said: 1) we get relegated - for me he's the best person to get us back promoted so he stays 2) we survive and we invest - for me he's stays and given opportunity to grow with the Villa 3) we survive and the owners want to really invest and target the likes of Bale, Coutinho or real top end players..........never going to happen - then obviously i would be targeting a real top end manager potentially 1. We went 10 games without winning a game when Jack was out injured. See this is a big question mark i have. Where is the creativity coming from if Jack leaves? Everything we do goes through Jack. Will El Ghazi and Trezeguet suddenly turn into world beaters? 2. We won't be able to invest like we have done in the Premier League. Edited May 13, 2020 by villalad21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 15 hours ago, PaulC said: It depends on the type of players you have really but I’d rather the Smith way than the Bruce way. Bournemouth were a really exciting team when they got promoted Yes, I agree. but I think it highlights ,you need both. I also think its incumbent on the manager/ recruitment staff to get the right players to play the way they want....else like you say they can't. I think the teams that do go up with a sound defence seem better prepared to what lies ahead in the bigger league.....that does not mean, i am advocating all defence no offence, that is not what i am saying, but if you can defend as a team when required, it does give you a more rounded team. Norwich while scoring 90 odd goals, conceded 57.that is high for a title winning side, 40/45 is average, while we conceded 61....sheff utd more miserly have carried that on this season. There are no hard and fast rules as i described in my earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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