Generic Virus Thread

[Awol]

3 minutes ago, sne said:

Quite liked this one 

Worryingly light on PPE, but Hancock would approve. 

[ferguson1]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Dick Out!

 

[Xann]

AFC Wimbledon's fans have been on it. Delivering food parcels and hygeine products to the local skint and disadvantaged for a spell now.

This is their new appeal.

Quote

The AFCW Foundation and Dons Local Action Group want to help children who are living in temporary accommodation and simply don't have access to the internet or any basic means of communication.

"These kids already have a rough deal. Laptops are an essential part of modern life and yet so many disadvantaged children can't access one. That means they can't do basic stuff like contacting friends, never mind enjoy online educational material," said spokesman Xavier Wiggins.

"So many of us have old laptops stashed away in cupboards and wardrobes which we've forgotten all about. Dust them down and they could open up an entirely new world for these kids."

It doesn't matter what the laptops look like so long as they're in working condition and come with a power cable.

AFC Wimbledon

Edited April 18, 2020 by Xann

[sne]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Dick Out!

[HanoiVillan]

8 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Well if you can’t gain immunity then a vaccine is not going to be possible. It’s still too early to know though.

This study from California is interesting though:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

On the Santa Clara study:

 

[Awol]

41 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

On the Santa Clara study:

 

Like the Oxford study here, beware the words “not peer reviewed.”

[Genie]

Is there any evidence from countries like Belarus that made no changes to their countries and even kept their top flight football going that it have killed lots of people?

[sne]

11 minutes ago, Genie said:

Is there any evidence from countries like Belarus that made no changes to their countries and even kept their top flight football going that it have killed lots of people?

Belarus and North Korea are 2 countries we are never going to get accurate information from.

[snowychap]

Less of a strategy and more of an assembly of random musings but:

Quote

Revealed: The UK’s “Three Stage” Exit Strategy To Ease The Coronavirus Lockdown

A "best case scenario" would see some non-essential retail shops and industries reopen in early to mid-May, further social distancing measures relaxed over the summer, but the elderly and vulnerable facing strict "shielding" restrictions lasting until a vaccine is found.

...more

And continuing the allusion to Logan's Run (though this is ostensibly about 'protecting the old and vulnerable', I grant):

Quote

SAGE scientists are also looking at lifting restrictions by age, raising the prospect that people under a certain age threshold could be able to go back to their offices sooner, organise social gatherings or go to the pub, but those above the limit cannot.

 

[terrytini]

3 hours ago, Brumstopdogs said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52336209

 

The Care Home situation is, and has been for a month, catastrophic.

Edited April 18, 2020 by terrytini

[terrytini]

5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

A useful read in terms of the timescales we are talking about here, to temper any optimism we might be feeling (ha!):

On timescales:

'There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

[...]

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

The treatment picture is murkier, but the drugs being tested today are repurposed ones, not designed to combat COVID-19 but deployed on the chance they might help. One in particular, remdesivir, is showing some real promise, but in general it is hard to bet confidently on repurposed drugs to be miracle cures of the kind that dramatically change the clinical shape of the disease and its treatment. Serological treatments offer some promise, but testing is only in the earliest stages. And the drugs likely to really “cure” the disease are just notions in a lab, at this point.

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.'

Excellent article in my view and thanks for posting it.

I find it really disturbing how quickly “ the conversation” has moved onto coming “out” of the pandemic, including amongst my own family despite my best efforts.

It is so typical of the modern way. When we have a plane crash or similar we get a day or two of the horror of the event.....then we move onto a couple of good news stories about how someone escaped or whatever, then a day or so later we are into “ how did it happen/ books of condolence “ etc.....then we move on.

Seems to me much of the population are conditioned to now think this way ( and in this case led by Trump) and that it’s time to “ get it done” and move on.

Whilst it’s of course obvious we can’t stay shut down forever, it’s very early days....and regardless of movement restrictions being lifted there is then going to be a very very long period when life will be very risky, and a great deal of care will be needed....which I can’t see happening.

And without being over dramatic, “it” still won’t be over.......there are plenty opportunities for this virus to mutate, and plenty opportunities for more, of greater toxicity, to develop in the future.

 

[blandy]

5 minutes ago, terrytini said:

without being over dramatic, “it” still won’t be over.......there are plenty opportunities for this virus to mutate, and plenty opportunities for more, of greater toxicity, to develop in the future.

The flip side of that wise caution is the optimism brought about by knowing that despite the political numpties, the bone heads and so on, the world has never had more scientists, researchers, boffins and and also all so focused on finding solutions, in terms of treatment and prevention. The human race is at times like a virus itself - horribly harmful to each other and the host planet and its other species, but at other times it is stunningly marvellous, incredibly ingenious and creative and collaborative and industrious.

[terrytini]

Well said 

[Genie]

Answer to a lot of questions aimed at the politicians for failures is “there’s too much competition due to worldwide demand”... doesn’t bode well for when we go full Brexit. 

[markavfc40]

 

[DCJonah]

21 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

 

Was just coming to post that. 

Hero Boris eh. If you defend this just because you voted tory you need to seriously think about the decisions you make. 

[HanoiVillan]

Indonesian coronavirus announcements have a greater sense of style and flair than we're managing . . .

[markavfc40]

19 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

Was just coming to post that. 

Hero Boris eh. If you defend this just because you voted tory you need to seriously think about the decisions you make. 

Coming from a pro Tory rag it is damning. 

Hopefully the penny will drop for many more that Johnson and the Tories have blood on their hands.

[OutByEaster?]

Is the whole article available anywhere?

 

[Kuwabatake Sanjuro]

And for more context.

Pretty damning too in my humble opinion.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Kuwabatake Sanjuro