Generic Virus Thread

[Villarocker]

You know, that Cressida Dick should stand down or be gently pushed from her job. The leading Met Police Officer standing on that bridge and watching so many people break the lock down rules is shameful of her. The Scottish woman, who had something to do with their health system, stood down after being exposed for visiting her second home. Why should Cressida Dick keep her post? Isn't she supposed to lead by example? 

[chrisp65]

Dick Out!

[Villarocker]

16 minutes ago, leemond2008 said:

Fair question and he'd feel terrible as would I, but at the same time, if you have someone who is at their wits end it isn't always enough to say "the government says you need to stay at home" I've been sinking into a fit of depression since last week, living in 2 rooms was killing me and I think if I wouldn't have had that little blow out last night then there is every chance I might have done something stupid sooner or later.

I'm calling it a hard reset, yes I shouldn't have done it and I won't be doing it again for a while but it was 100% necessary and had made me feel a hell of a lot better 

If you're really that bad in isolation then I can understand why you needed to escape. Have you tried calling Samaritans and other charities that help with people in your situation? 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Villarocker

[leemond2008]

5 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

If you're really that bad in isolation then I can understand why you needed to escape. Have you tried calling Samaritans and other charities that help with people in your situation? 

Yeah but honestly what could they say to help? 

The problem has been being confined to 2 rooms 23 hours a day for 28 days with at least another 21 days to come, Samaritans can't help with that.

I took the decision to see a mate for a few hours and I won't do it again for another 3 or 4 weeks but when I feel like I'm sinking again they yeah, I'll go and see him again.

[Xann]

The 3 week extension increases the chance that I'll have a friend staying. She's alone in a flat with no outside space.

[HanoiVillan]

This thread is pretty useful on our 'home made' ventilators:

As usual with this author, it's well-evidenced but long, but the TLDR is that rather than asking manufacturers to make more of an existing ventilator design under licence, they asked manufacturers to 'reinvent the wheel' and make new designs, but with a very basic spec, so basic that the ventilators couldn't be used in ICUs and couldn't be used for more than a few hours. When medical people saw the specs, they thought the ventilators would be completely useless. Now, a month later, the government has changed the specs so that the ventilators are more advanced and could be used on an ICU, so one manufacturer (Bluesky consortium) has been abandoned, and another (Oxvent) paused. It may be that none of the designs get eventual approval from regulators.

[HanoiVillan]

A useful read in terms of the timescales we are talking about here, to temper any optimism we might be feeling (ha!):

On timescales:

'There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

[...]

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

The treatment picture is murkier, but the drugs being tested today are repurposed ones, not designed to combat COVID-19 but deployed on the chance they might help. One in particular, remdesivir, is showing some real promise, but in general it is hard to bet confidently on repurposed drugs to be miracle cures of the kind that dramatically change the clinical shape of the disease and its treatment. Serological treatments offer some promise, but testing is only in the earliest stages. And the drugs likely to really “cure” the disease are just notions in a lab, at this point.

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.'

[LondonLax]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

A useful read in terms of the timescales we are talking about here, to temper any optimism we might be feeling (ha!):

On timescales:

'There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

[...]

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

The treatment picture is murkier, but the drugs being tested today are repurposed ones, not designed to combat COVID-19 but deployed on the chance they might help. One in particular, remdesivir, is showing some real promise, but in general it is hard to bet confidently on repurposed drugs to be miracle cures of the kind that dramatically change the clinical shape of the disease and its treatment. Serological treatments offer some promise, but testing is only in the earliest stages. And the drugs likely to really “cure” the disease are just notions in a lab, at this point.

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.'

That’s why I’m starting to think Sweden has the right approach. No lockdown, just a slower spread via social distancing measures. Countries are not going to be able to stay locked down for long enough to make it work and so once they open up again they will just be following Sweden’s model until this plays out for each country.

[Seat68]

1 hour ago, leemond2008 said:

Yeah but honestly what could they say to help? 

The problem has been being confined to 2 rooms 23 hours a day for 28 days with at least another 21 days to come, Samaritans can't help with that.

I took the decision to see a mate for a few hours and I won't do it again for another 3 or 4 weeks but when I feel like I'm sinking again they yeah, I'll go and see him again.

Can I suggest meeting in an open space and keeping apart. You then dont put yourselves and others at risk. I am thinking of suggesting this to a mate. 

[sne]

7 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

That’s why I’m starting to think Sweden has the right approach. No lockdown, just a slower spread via social distancing measures. Countries are not going to be able to stay locked down for long enough to make it work and so once they open up again they will just be following Sweden’s model until this plays out for each country.

Think there are parts of the Swedish approach that is good and has/will work out, but there are others that have been disastrous.

The people running the show here underestimated it in the beginning and did too little meaning it got into our senior care homes and due to that we now have one of the highest number of dead per million citizens.

As of today we have just over 1500 dead and a very high % of them have died at care homes. 

The government has also in typical fashion been reluctant to be decisive and have just let things play out hoping for the best. This leads to uncertainty and people not taking things seriously. No decision is taken until it is absolutely necessary. 

Should also add that this was probably the only way for Sweden to handle it as we were embarrassingly unprepared for something like this. We has no stock of safety gear, testing kits or medical staff. 

They are working in rain ponchos from a amusement park and homemade visors in one of the big hospitals ffs.

[Brumstopdogs]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

Dick Out!

Can we stop now?

[LondonLax]

21 minutes ago, sne said:

Think there are parts of the Swedish approach that is good and has/will work out, but there are others that have been disastrous.

The people running the show here underestimated it in the beginning and did too little meaning it got into our senior care homes and due to that we now have one of the highest number of dead per million citizens.

As of today we have just over 1500 dead and a very high % of them have died at care homes. 

The government has also in typical fashion been reluctant to be decisive and have just let things play out hoping for the best. This leads to uncertainty and people not taking things seriously. No decision is taken until it is absolutely necessary. 

Should also add that this was probably the only way for Sweden to handle it as we were embarrassingly unprepared for something like this. We has no stock of safety gear, testing kits or medical staff. 

They are working in rain ponchos from a amusement park and homemade visors in one of the big hospitals ffs.

Yes, the only advantage of a lockdown is to buy yourself time and get equipment in order etc to deal with the next stage.

The lockdown is not the solution, it’s just a bandaid before countries move to the next stage, which is ultimately Swedish style social distancing until the virus has run its course.  

[snowychap]

In a reaction to Ben Fogle's calls to celebrate the Queen's birthday, one 93 year old from Windsor even demands ditching the gun salutes:

Quote

The Queen’s 94th birthday on Tuesday will be a low-key affair owing to the coronavirus pandemic, with no official gun salutes for what is believed to be the first time in her long reign.

It is traditional for royal gun salutes to be fired from different locations in London and across the UK on the monarch’s birthday.

Events have been cancelled this year, in line with the Queen’s wishes.

“Her Majesty was keen that no special measures were put in place to allow gun salutes as she did not feel it appropriate in the current circumstances,” a Buckingham Palace source said.

...more

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by snowychap

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, snowychap said:

In a reaction to Ben Fogle's calls to celebrate the Queen's birthday, one 93 year old from Windsor even suggests cancelling the gun salutes:

 

Is that her first “contribution” to the virus pandemic?

[snowychap]

10 minutes ago, Genie said:

Is that her first “contribution” to the virus pandemic?

I thought she was on the telly the other day?

[LakotaDakota]

2 hours ago, leemond2008 said:

Yeah but honestly what could they say to help? 

The problem has been being confined to 2 rooms 23 hours a day for 28 days with at least another 21 days to come, Samaritans can't help with that.

I took the decision to see a mate for a few hours and I won't do it again for another 3 or 4 weeks but when I feel like I'm sinking again they yeah, I'll go and see him again.

honestly if you're feeling bad about going out just have a look at this and don't worry about it:

It seems about half the population are barely leaving the house at all, 40% are out and about every day as they are at work which may or may not be anything essential and 10% are just carrying on completely as normal

Worst case just arrange to see someone you know out for 10/15 mins every now & then. Organise shopping/excercise together or something, keep your distance but have a chat at the same time. Bumped into an old bloke i speak to at the football sometimes yesterday and had a chat with him for 15 mins, he was stood a good 10ft+ away but was nice to have a bit of a catch up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8232453/Britons-flock-shops-non-essential-shopping.html

Britons continue to flout the criteria for essential shopping - as shoppers were today seen snapping up plants, drones, mirrors and pillows.

In Plymouth, hundreds of shoppers were spotted at The Range, buying a variety of items not considered to be 'basic necessities'.

 

[Awol]

5,525 new cases recorded yesterday, and 888 new deaths in hospital. 

Media chat about reaching a peak in UK is premature, we’re not there yet.

[chrisp65]

19 minutes ago, Genie said:

Is that her first “contribution” to the virus pandemic?

She did that address to the nation where she said she was donating 20% of all her wealth to the NHS and turning over a few hundred bedrooms in a few of her castles so nurses and careers could self isolate.

It was the same time she said she was turning pedo guy over to the FBI.

[Brumstopdogs]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52336209

Quote

The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.

 

[sne]

Quite liked this one