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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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15 hours ago, darrenm said:

My pivotchart

image.thumb.png.09fd42a0623db54ba1a527d842b435af.png

We hit 0, errr, a week today..

Looks like the data for the 12th and 13th is quite incomplete. Normally, anything over 3 days is 'almost there' so you might find the next couple of days sounding quite high while they continue to backfill those days. If I take those 2 out, the trend goes back to 27/28th Feb, which I'd guess will be how it ends up.

image.thumb.png.a0b62613a3d8303a82a30fd2e8e93597.png

Expect Boris's announcement on the 22nd to be in jubilant tone that we're now under 200 deaths a day. It's currently about 300.

Loving your charts mate, you should be on after Chris on the 22nd. It’s genuinely got me feeling positive for the first time in months.

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Christ, there are some brave people out there 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56097088

Quote

Covid-19: World's first human trials given green light in UK

Healthy, young volunteers will be infected with coronavirus to test vaccines and treatments in the world's first Covid-19 "human challenge" study, which will take place in the UK.

The study, which has received ethics approval, will start in the next few weeks and recruit 90 people aged 18-30.

They will be exposed to the virus in a safe and controlled environment while medics monitor their health.

Quote

The trials will help scientists work out the smallest amount of coronavirus needed to cause infection, and how the body's immune system reacts to it.

This will give doctors a better understanding of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, which will feed into the development of vaccines and treatments.

 

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3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

If I was looking for work, I would be on that like a flash.

Yeah, easy money.

The colleague was saying that you stay at the place for 2 weeks on your own. You can take books and electronic devices etc but can’t leave your room at all. They bring your food and take it away. A bit like being in prison (👀) but get a big ole chunk of money for it. 

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5 hours ago, Genie said:

Must be a fair few quid being paid.

A colleague of mine was due to do a flu virus trial like that (got cancelled because of Covid) and was getting paid £4k. 

I heard in radio they are not getting paid but getting compensation. That's all that was said whilst I caught the news. That's ridiculous, does compensation mean Gratis points or something?

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2 minutes ago, supermon said:

I heard in radio they are not getting paid but getting compensation. That's all that was said whilst I caught the news. That's ridiculous, does compensation mean Gratis points or something?

Probably a tax loophole. 

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7 minutes ago, supermon said:

I heard in radio they are not getting paid but getting compensation. That's all that was said whilst I caught the news. That's ridiculous, does compensation mean Gratis points or something?

BBC said they would be "paid for their time" 

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10 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Reading about the Orthodox Jewish community in the USA getting decimated by Covid because they flaunt safety protocols. I wonder if they ask why God has abandoned them?

They're used to it. 

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How the beach 'super-spreader' myth can inform UK's future Covid response

Quote

They were images that seemed to define a hot, febrile, and dangerous summer: massed ranks of daytrippers swamping Britain’s beaches, making the most of the June sunshine after months of restrictions – and, some front pages suggested, creating an appalling risk of coronavirus infection.

Eight months later, the headlines tell a different story: there was no real danger at all.

According to Prof Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at Edinburgh University who sits on the government’s SPI-M committee, the chance of a super-spreader event among the crowds that turned up from Bournemouth to Southend was minimal in theory – and nonexistent in practice.

“Over the summer we were treated to all this on the television news, pictures of crowded beaches, and there was an outcry about this,” he told MPs. “There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”

...

reality was never quite as apocalyptic as the telephoto lens pictures which appeared to show a sea of humanity all but on top of each other – in fact, for the most part, just a trick of perspective.

Instead, some suggest, Woolhouse’s intervention is a reminder that the narrative propagated in parts of the media about the daytrippers had some of the qualities of a moral panic.

...more on link

 

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37 minutes ago, snowychap said:

It’s great news, but I think part of the issue of thousands flocking to the beaches was impact outside of them. The shops, food outlets, ice cream stalls, toilets, petrol stations etc.

Does the study include all the peripheral interactions involved with people heading to the coast for the day, often a round trip of hundreds of miles?

It’s probably still little risk of being a super spreading event just wondered if they’d delved fully into it... or just confirmed what we knew already that sitting in a spot with more than a couple of meters to other people is fine?

Also, any breakout would unlikely occur in the location of the beach, it would be back at the home town of the people who came from all over to spend the day at the beach. I doubt many people who potentially caught Covid following a day at the beach stated that’s where they think they got it.

Edited by Genie
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44 minutes ago, Genie said:

Does the study

What 'study'?

As per the article:

Quote

Woolhouse, for his part, has been taken by surprise by the interest in his comments – which he presumed to be a statement of a generally understood fact.

“This is not a subtle picture,” he said. “The published studies were already quite clear at the time

 

44 minutes ago, Genie said:

part of the issue of thousands flocking to the beaches was impact outside of them

As per the article:

Quote

Nobody disputes that there were some possible knock-on risks during the heatwave, on crowded trains or overused toilets – and the traffic jams and litter the crowds brought had a very real effect on local residents’ quality of life.

..

44 minutes ago, Genie said:

any breakout would unlikely occur in the location of the beach, it would be back at the home town of the people who came from all over to spend the day at the beach

As per the article:

Quote

“We have known for some time that only about 10% of transmission events are linked to outdoor activities,”

I.e. it's about linking an outbreak to a common location where people may have been and not simply to where they live - so it's not about asking people where they 'think' they may have acquired it.

A point here is that yes, there are peripheral issues (some of which I raised myself last year in a discussion with @HanoiVillan) but that the simple event of people being outside even in large numbers is not something that has massive repercussions in terms of the spreading of this virus (or likely any other) unless people in those large numbers are in close proximity for a substantial amount of time in small groups.

The real point is that, even after a year of this pandemic being around, people are still missing the picture about where our attention(s) should lie in order to reduce transmission of this and other viruses - workplaces, indoor spaces, places with no or poor ventilation, &c. and we should stop wringing our hands (and I may have been guilty of that myself, tbh) about people going outside in large numbers, stop getting so obsessed with people sanitising their sodding hands every thirty seconds, cleaning parcels or boxes delivered to your house, leaping back to stay 10 metres away (yes, hyperbole) from someone walking towards you and past you on a pavement, and on and on.

Edited by snowychap
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Over here, from the weekend multiple people from 2 households can exercise outdoors together.

If figures stay on the current trajectory, then lockdown basically finishes in 3 weeks time: y’all can leave the house, non-essential shops open, tourism open.

All schools back 15th March.

Pubs / nightclubs highly likely stay closed a bit longer.

 

Edited by chrisp65
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26 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Over here, from the weekend multiple people from 2 households can exercise outdoors together.

If figures stay on the current trajectory, then lockdown basically finishes in 3 weeks time: y’all can leave the house, non-essential shops open, tourism open.

All schools back 15th March.

Pubs / nightclubs highly likely stay closed a bit longer.

 

I expect it'll be similar in England with Johnson's address on Monday night.

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