Xela Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Auckland shutting down after 3 new covid cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 14, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14, 2021 15m first doses target hit, and 2 days early too. Amazing. I saw a report earlier that they were seeking to open up yet more centers as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's seriously impressive. All from Matt Hancock watching Contagion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 14, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14, 2021 258 deaths today. I know they are always lower at the weekend but that's the lowest number reported since Boxing Day, which I don't trust as a reliable figure, so you really have to go back to 21 December. 10,972 new cases, the lowest since since 2nd October! Numbers in hospital the lowest since 27 December, numbers admitted to hospital the lowest since 11 December. We're getting there. Are those new cases numbers the vaccination effect now? They seem to be falling faster than they rose looking at the graph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, sidcow said: 258 deaths today. I know they are always lower at the weekend but that's the lowest number reported since Boxing Day, which I don't trust as a reliable figure, so you really have to go back to 21 December. 10,972 new cases, the lowest since since 2nd October! Numbers in hospital the lowest since 27 December, numbers admitted to hospital the lowest since 11 December. We're getting there. Are those new cases numbers the vaccination effect now? They seem to be falling faster than they rose looking at the graph. I read something a week ago which said there's no evidence that the fall is being sped up by the vaccine. I find that surprising but it might have been a bit premature at the time. You'd expect a 2-3 week delay after being vaccinated to be effective and the vaccine numbers didn't start ramping up until about 4 weeks ago. Then deaths are from people infected ~4 weeks ago. So maybe most of the decrease is the lockdown down and the vaccine is starting to have an effect from December's doses. Edited February 14, 2021 by darrenm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's probably a mixture, the lockdown will have helped get the R down below 1 and the vaccine is probably now kicking in for the most vulnerable people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Vaccination won’t stop people being exposed to or carrying the virus though. It must be lockdown reducing case numbers. If you’ve had the vaccine and work front line, you can still catch and spread. You’re just far less likely to turn in to a hospital statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Vaccination won’t stop people being exposed to or carrying the virus though. It must be lockdown reducing case numbers. If you’ve had the vaccine and work front line, you can still catch and spread. You’re just far less likely to turn in to a hospital statistic. The vaccine also significantly reduces transmission 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, darrenm said: The vaccine also significantly reduces transmission How does it do that then? Genuine question. My other half has had the vaccine because of where she works. I haven’t. So I’d be interested to know how it stops transmission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, chrisp65 said: How does it do that then? Genuine question. My other half has had the vaccine because of where she works. I haven’t. So I’d be interested to know how it stops transmission. Apparently people carry less virus in the system because of brushing it off behind the scenes. https://www.cityam.com/pfizer-vaccine-cuts-covid-19-transmission-risk-four-fold-even-before-second-dose-study/ Quote People vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine are four times less likely to spread the Coronavirus, even before they have received their second jab, according to a new study. I saw something similar for the Oxford vaccine the other day but I think it's common sense they would work the same when both are reducing viral load. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Oxford is up to 67% reduction according to their study 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 14, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14, 2021 I would have thought that with vaccinations you would get a lot more asymptomatic infected people, who therefore wouldn't go get a test and therefore not be diagnosed? People would would have previously been hospital cases might still get ill enough to think they had it and go get tested, but some of those people who got tests because they felt reasonably ill might hardly feel ill at all. That would be a logical conclusion for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, sidcow said: I would have thought that with vaccinations you would get a lot more asymptomatic infected people, who therefore wouldn't go get a test and therefore not be diagnosed? People would would have previously been hospital cases might still get ill enough to think they had it and go get tested, but some of those people who got tests because they felt reasonably ill might hardly feel ill at all. That would be a logical conclusion for me. I think there would be a real danger of us turning into mutation factories if the vaccines didn't cut down transmission. Because we'd all be out unknowingly spreading it. I think testing will be and should be on the agenda for quite a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 14, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, darrenm said: I think there would be a real danger of us turning into mutation factories if the vaccines didn't cut down transmission. Because we'd all be out unknowingly spreading it. I think testing will be and should be on the agenda for quite a while yet. No, I agree and I agree. I'm just thinking right now after 17m vaccinations and many many who have had them for several week, there must be some effect on the numbers, and some people might not now know they are ill to go for a test in the first place. I've also seen reports that say it he vaccines reduce transmission, that's surely also playing into the numbers of not massively yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 12/02/2021 at 16:22, darrenm said: Adding 3 more days in which have been marked as complete data brings the 0 day point to exactly 2 weeks time. As said above, it won't be, but deaths are still falling in a steady linear rate, possibly now falling faster I've updated the figures where dates have complete and incomplete data up until 2 days ago. It's fairly safe to use recent incomplete data now because if they do increase, they only increase by single figures. The downward trend seems to be increasing. 0 day was 1st March. Now it's 10 days time. Usual caveats apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Seems like good news! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 As the young are rewarded with being less at risk, my view is they should be penalised in other ways. Curfews, extend their lockdown and absolutely no foreign travel. They are less likely to die so they already have a reward in that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Seat68 said: As the young are rewarded with being less at risk, my view is they should be penalised in other ways. Curfews, extend their lockdown and absolutely no foreign travel. They are less likely to die so they already have a reward in that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 15, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 15, 2021 Cant find the story right now but there's interesting news regarding a new vaccine being developed by Nottingham University which aims to deal with mutations of the virus before they happen. The story is on Sky News on my Tablet but I can't find it on the website atm Should be going to trial in the UK in the next few weeks It sounds like its the future for the next generation of COVID vaccines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 15, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, bickster said: Cant find the story right now but there's interesting news regarding a new vaccine being developed by Nottingham University which aims to deal with mutations of the virus before they happen. The story is on Sky News on my Tablet but I can't find it on the website atm Should be going to trial in the UK in the next few weeks It sounds like its the future for the next generation of COVID vaccines Yeah, I saw that. One vaccine to rule them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts