Genie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Where is the 0.2% figure from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, TrentVilla said: That sort of comment isn’t statistically supported though is it? I mean they are I assume approximations or judgment calls based on what they are seeing. Isn’t a judgment call based on what is seen the same as it statistically supported? There’s been about 40,000 deaths in England since they said they knew about the new variant. Enough to draw a fair conclusion this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted January 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Genie said: Isn’t a judgment call based on what is seen the same as it statistically supported? There’s been about 40,000 deaths in England since they said they knew about the new variant. Enough to draw a fair conclusion this week. No, absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 36 minutes ago, sidcow said: Oh man, I really had expected the deal rate to start falling off now. We've had 2 weeks of lower numbers but that just doesn't seem to be reflecting in the deaths yet. Another 1,725 today. Higher than any day last week other than the record of 20th January. 311,060 vaccines is higher than yesterday but still a fair bit below last weeks figures even with the new centers opening. I had hoped that by now they would be going for new daily records. When did the england lockdown start? Ours started 23rd Dec and we’re really seeing a massive drop off in cases in the last week or so. So if you guys were a week behind on the lockdown (again)... My county was stubbornly in the hundreds, then last week the new cases just tumbled, it was constantly around 200 / 240 then about a week ago the day by day figures basically sort of went: 240....90 ... 80... 40...20....and today was 13. So it is coming, it’s just stubborn (KW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: When did the england lockdown start? Ours started 23rd Dec and we’re really seeing a massive drop off in cases in the last week or so. So if you guys were a week behind on the lockdown (again)... My county was stubbornly in the hundreds, then last week the new cases just tumbled, it was constantly around 200 / 240 then about a week ago the day by day figures basically sort of went: 240....90 ... 80... 40...20....and today was 13. So it is coming, it’s just stubborn (KW). I assume the consistently really high numbers in England are mainly down to the new variant. Hopefully it’s not so rife in Wales hence the lockdown having the expected impact. I think the England lockdown is only helping to slightly offset the damage of the new variant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Genie said: I assume the consistently really high numbers in England are mainly down to the new variant. Hopefully it’s not so rife in Wales hence the lockdown having the expected impact. I think the England lockdown is only helping to slightly offset the damage of the new variant. I think some of the first reports of the ‘new’ variant were in all the usual trouble spots, north east Wales up by dirty Wrexham, and south east Wales over by dirty Newport. My hunch, it’s more down to timing than variant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, Genie said: Where is the 0.2% figure from? The difference between 10 and 13 (so really it should be 0.3%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, bickster said: The difference between 10 and 13 If for every 1000 infections 13 (or 14) people die isn’t it an increase of 30% (or 40%)? Where does 0.2% come in? Edited January 27, 2021 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It certainly sounds a lot less worrying than "30% more deaths". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: We have a 8:30pm - 4:00am Curfew in place in The Netherlands. As far as I can understand this is how it went to a certain degree over the last few days:- Sunday Night: Riots and looting against the Curfew Monday Night: Riots and looting against the Curfew Tuesday Night: The Football Hooligan elements per city do patrols, hardly anything. (They were given the correct Orange tops by the Police so everyone knows who they are also) I was going to ask about what was happening over there! I thought you were chilled out in the Netherlands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The cases are falling off a cliff. The problem is hospitalisations lag that by a week or so and deaths by 2-3 weeks. So with a large majority of the over 70s vaccinated and with a week or so for immunity in those to work, then maybe this week we'll see a definite decline in deaths, and the week after hopefully a sharper decline. If it doesn't happen soon something is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Variant A: 1,000,000 infections = 10,000 deaths Variant B: 1,000,000 infections = 13-14,000 deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Genie said: If for every 1000 infections 13 (or 14) people die isn’t it an increase of 30% (or 40%)? Where does 0.2% come in? I never said 0,2% for starters but you asked where it came from so I told you, it's 0.3% deaths went from 10/1000 to 13/1000 so deaths in 100 increased by 0.3% (of potential deaths) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I think some of the first reports of the ‘new’ variant were in all the usual trouble spots, north east Wales up by dirty Wrexham, and south east Wales over by dirty Newport. My hunch, it’s more down to timing than variant. No idea what you mean, Newport be the land of the gods........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, bickster said: I never said 0,2% for starters but you asked where it came from so I told you, it's 0.3% deaths went from 10/1000 to 13/1000 so deaths in 100 increased by 0.3% (of potential deaths) I didn’t ask you specifically, it was mentioned multiple times on the previous page but it doesn’t align to anything hence why I was confused. Sir Patrick Vallence’s comment suggests that the new variant kills 30-40% more people than the older variant. I’d say that was significant not sure why VT crew are playing it down to the point of adjusting the numbers (10 became 11, 13-14 was called 13). Edited January 27, 2021 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: No idea what you mean, Newport be the land of the gods........ One of the best rap videos ever was filmed on that bridge. I used to go to gigs upstairs in The Kings Hotel, saw Dr Feelgood there. Great times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, Xela said: I was going to ask about what was happening over there! I thought you were chilled out in the Netherlands! Shortage of weed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted January 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 27, 2021 My hunch going by the Press Conference this evening is that we'll go back to the tiers system on 08th March. Cue my elderly parents (now having had their first dose) straight on the way down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, sidcow said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55639096 Covid: Large trial of new treatment begins in UK Early findings suggested the treatment cut the odds of a Covid-19 patient in hospital developing severe disease - such as requiring ventilation - by almost 80%. I remember reading this a couple of weeks ago which was also hot on the heels of another story about 2 new drugs being approved which would cut deaths by 1/4. Not sure what they mean by "large trial" but surely if you have the opportunity you would roll it out to as many as possible. Anyway I was hoping that 2 - 4 weeks after these announcements we would see a decent enough drop off in deaths. Not sure that has happened although maybe these benefits have now been countered by the more deadly strain taking hold. My mate said he was given a trial treatment a week ago and got released from hospital today. I'm not sure what it was or how much of his improvement was down to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: My mate said he was given a trial treatment a week ago and got released from hospital today. I'm not sure what it was or how much of his improvement was down to it. Wow, I seem to recall you saying he was really ill as well? Hopefully that was one of these treatments in action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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