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It's Your Round

Mbwana ‘Ally’ Samatta

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I've looked at a few videos of him and what's clear is that he is two footed. That is such an asset to have as a striker defenders don't know how to deal with you. 

 

The price seems quite reasonable so let's hope he can hit the ground running. 

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4 hours ago, thunderball said:

Decent player, right sort of age, great scoring record, good price in this market. Fingers crossed.

But if we do go down he looks like he would stay and would score loads down there too.

I think this is a big part of our thinking, and why we are resisting the temptation to take HUGE gambles.

Short term it might be painful but long term I think we will be better for it.

We stay up and the added bonus is that we already have "decent" squad players who will have a years more maturity and experience at this level.

Then we can add a few big guns.

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1 minute ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

Reliable based on what? So then most forwards in the lesser leagues would have a lower than average 'attacking output', making the insights totally moot.

Based on previous transfers where they've predicted how well players will do in a different league. They predicted a preposterous season for Salah based on his numbers in Italy, coming back to a league he'd already failed in. 32 goals later I think they were right.

Moving "up leagues", it's hard to maintain a high number, yes. His attacking output would be higher if kept the ball better and made passes in the lead up to goals more often. It takes into account where his goals were scored from, and where they went into the net and translates it all across. Would these 5 goals he's stuck right down the middle of the goal have gone in if it was a PL goalkeeper? No? Right well his score comes down.

I'm not agreeing with it, it's not perfect, nothing is. Just saying I think their methods are sound. Like I said, the Villa Analytics account will hopefully give something better later as it's run by a fan and he'll be looking to be positive.

I think this dude is better than Wes and he's now playing for a team that can open up almost anyone when playing well, so he'll sure get chances to mess this negative review off.

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30 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

It's questioning his 'attacking output' but he scored 32 goals last season and has 10 goals so far this season.

Looks stupid.

 

Looking through the FAQ, Its partly because those stats are adjusted as a prediction of how the player would perform the Premier League. His attacking output is actually 57 f your baseline is the Belgium league. I also think its just 50 is the benchmark average for the league, its not like how other rating systems work which would lead to confusion if you're used to those systems.

Secondly, attacking output from what I understand is actually based on a player's contribution to chances created. It doesn't take into account goals scored or finishing ability. 

"NYA's attacking output rating is a measure of contributions to xGF per minute that a player's team is in possession of the ball. A player can not easily advance the ball or create a shot when his team does not have possession. Yet within the time his team has possession, a player may use any number of touches to contribute to xGF. This is why NYA uses minutes in possession as a denominator."

xGF I assume is just expected goals for. Expected goals for should purely be a function of chances created. The fact that its denominator is minutes in posession leads me to believe its basically another name for the xG90 Buildup stat that understat uses, only with key passes included.

TLDR, I don't think attacking output look at your goals scored at all, just how much you contribute to creating chances. Its just a badly named stat.

Edited by Laughable Chimp

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13 minutes ago, TRO said:

Lewandowski.

31 and no premier league experience. No thanks :trollface:

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1 hour ago, tomav84 said:

norwich signed pukki for free as a 28 year old, so in his prime too. scored 29 goals in his first season, getting promoted with norwich, and 9 in the prem despite playing for bottom of the league. price equates to ability quite rarely. with most transfers i'd say a player turns out to be either overpriced or a bargain. you just always hope that he's the latter

also, sometimes teams just look in the wrong places.

oh, per wikipedia, he signed 4.5 year deal in Jan 2016, meaning if my math is correct his contract is up in June

edit: correction, per transfermarkt, expires 2021 - so guessing cashing in now before he goes into his final year

Thats true, its hard to prospect/scout every nook and cranny.....we need a bit of luck

Leicester have had such a good success rate at it..... we did too in the late 70's

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4 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Looking through the FAQ, Its partly because those stats are adjusted as a prediction of how the player would perform the Premier League. His attacking output is actually 57 f your baseline is the Belgium league.

Secondly, attacking output from what I understand is actually based on a player's contribution to chances created. It doesn't take into account goals scored or finishing ability. 

"NYA's attacking output rating is a measure of contributions to xGF per minute that a player's team is in possession of the ball. A player can not easily advance the ball or create a shot when his team does not have possession. Yet within the time his team has possession, a player may use any number of touches to contribute to xGF. This is why NYA uses minutes in possession as a denominator."

xGF I assume is just expected goals for. Expected goals for should purely be a function of chances created. The fact that its denominator is minutes in posession leads me to believe its basically another name for the xG90 Buildup stat that understat uses, only with key passes included.

TLDR, I don't think attacking output look at your goals scored at all, just how much you contribute to creating chances. Its just a badly named stat.

Maybe I'm old school but isn't it the striker's job to convert chances rather than create them? Sounds like a load of bullshit to me. He has a good record, 43 goals in 98 in the league, that's the most significant stat in terms of his ability in front of goal. Personally I'm very much unsure about the signing but I'm not going to look at some metric which is barely meaningful and get concerned.

Edited by Dr_Pangloss
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9 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

Based on previous transfers where they've predicted how well players will do in a different league. They predicted a preposterous season for Salah based on his numbers in Italy, coming back to a league he'd already failed in. 32 goals later I think they were right.

Moving "up leagues", it's hard to maintain a high number, yes. His attacking output would be higher if kept the ball better and made passes in the lead up to goals more often. It takes into account where his goals were scored from, and where they went into the net and translates it all across. Would these 5 goals he's stuck right down the middle of the goal have gone in if it was a PL goalkeeper? No? Right well his score comes down.

I'm not agreeing with it, it's not perfect, nothing is. Just saying I think their methods are sound. Like I said, the Villa Analytics account will hopefully give something better later as it's run by a fan and he'll be looking to be positive.

I think this dude is better than Wes and he's now playing for a team that can open up almost anyone when playing well, so he'll sure get chances to mess this negative review off.

This doesn't really help, how does this metric generalise? Any data on that? What's the prediction accuracy out of sample? Helping to get one prediction right (i.e. Salah) doesn't make it a good independent variable. Presumably their models will have more than this variable in to make predictions as well so not going to be explaining all of the variation.

Edited by Dr_Pangloss

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5 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Looking through the FAQ, Its partly because those stats are adjusted as a prediction of how the player would perform the Premier League. His attacking output is actually 57 f your baseline is the Belgium league. I also think its just 50 is the benchmark average for the league, its not like how other rating systems work which would lead to confusion if you're used to those systems.

Secondly, attacking output from what I understand is actually based on a player's contribution to chances created. It doesn't take into account goals scored or finishing ability. 

"NYA's attacking output rating is a measure of contributions to xGF per minute that a player's team is in possession of the ball. A player can not easily advance the ball or create a shot when his team does not have possession. Yet within the time his team has possession, a player may use any number of touches to contribute to xGF. This is why NYA uses minutes in possession as a denominator."

xGF I assume is just expected goals for. Expected goals for should purely be a function of chances created. The fact that its denominator is minutes in posession leads me to believe its basically another name for the xG90 Buildup stat that understat uses, only with key passes included.

TLDR, I don't think attacking output look at your goals scored at all, just how much you contribute to creating chances. Its just a badly named stat.

Lets watch him play, we will know everything we need to know then.

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Well my Tanzanian (Man U supporting mate) seems to think he is a TOP player, his only worry is that the physicality of Premier League might take him time to adapt to.

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Looking at this video he doesn’t look clinical but does look quite dynamic. Seems a handful for defenders.  Different type of player to Wesley it seems. 

Edited by Vive_La_Villa

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Just now, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Well my Tanzanian (Man U supporting mate) seems to think he is a TOP player, his only worry is that the physicality of Premier League might take him time to adapt to.

Thats always the worry for me....but we have to see him.

If he has the " eye of the tiger" he will adapt fairly quickly through desire and determination.

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4 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

This doesn't really help, how does this metric generalise? Any data on that? What's the prediction accuracy out of sample? Helping to get one prediction right (i.e. Salah) doesn't make it a good independent variable. Presumably their models will have more than this variable in to make predictions as well so not going to be explaining all of the variation.

www.google.com

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24 minutes ago, TRO said:

Mahrez £400,000 from LeHavre, I think.

crazy

we must be due a bit of luck.

It's funny. Steve Walsh was head of recruitment when Mahrez was signed & got a job at Everton based on his success at Leicester & proceeded to shat the bed. 

It's hard to know what goes on behind closed doors at any club, who is actually pulling the trigger & who is just along for the ride ?

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Looking forward to watching him play in the same team as Wes too, think they would make a good pair. I know Smith doesn't favour that formation but Wes is used to playing as second striker, and Samatta seems to have that energy up front that we desperately miss.

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Just now, thunderball said:

Looking forward to watching him play in the same team as Wes too, think they would make a good pair. I know Smith doesn't favour that formation but Wes is used to playing as second striker, and Samatta seems to have that energy up front that we desperately miss.

Hopefully in the Premier League!

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2 minutes ago, gurru991 said:

It's funny. Steve Walsh was head of recruitment when Mahrez was signed & got a job at Everton based on his success at Leicester & proceeded to shat the bed. 

It's hard to know what goes on behind closed doors at any club, who is actually pulling the trigger & who is just along for the ride ?

bang on.

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20 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

Maybe I'm old school but isn't it the striker's job to convert chances rather than create them? Sounds like a load of bullshit to me. He has a good record, 43 goals in 98 in the league, that's the most significant stat in terms of his ability in front of goal. Personally I'm very much unsure about the signing but I'm not going to look at some metric which is barely meaningful and get concerned.

I agree. But I think in this case its more people using the stat wrongly. There are stats that do give an idea of the player's ability in front of goal that you should be looking at other than just goals scored.

As I say this, I'm trying to find a stat in their site that gives a good idea of his finishing ability and I don't think the site has one. On understat, you can check a player's finishing ability by looking at how much their goals are higher than their xG. In this one, there's nothing of the sort. Expected goals per shot is the closest one but its actually extremely misleading. Its not measuring how clinical the striker is, its measuring the quality of chances he gets in front of goal per shot.

Its an interesting site, but I think I'd rather mostly stick with understat, tranfermarkt and whoscored. 😁

Edit: Nah wait, there's non-penalty goals per shot. So that can be compared with expected goals per shot.

So, from what I can tell that just tells me he's not a super clinical striker(such as someone like Vardy) and relies on lots of good chances to score. But, this stat is largely useless without being able to compare with other players further.

 

Edited by Laughable Chimp

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Watched some of his play last week, heads the ball in the crucial areas, something we are missing. Movement also seems more fluid

 

Just like all but 1 ever signing, I hope he does well, he does well will equate to us having a greater chance of staying up

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