Dean Smith

[TRO]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

7th place in the league last season (what I mentioned) had 15 wins in 38 games, which is 39.5% win rate

Deans figure was cumulative, so I did Nuno's accordingly.

[Zatman]

1 minute ago, TRO said:

Wolves finished 7th has my sherlock holmes skills let me down?

Yes but was not Nuno career record but his record that season that was mentioned

Like me throwing your favourite manager Bruce record about

[TRO]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

But the prediction was for a season and I think worse case we’ll be 12th but probably end up slightly higher....so success compared to your prediction?

I am watching the games performances to make my comments, not the league table.

I am hoping tomorrow, we show more aggression , allied to our talent, we should in theory, bring home the bacon.

[TRO]

2 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Yes but was not Nuno career record but his record that season that was mentioned

Like me throwing your favourite manager Bruce record about

Done ok today though....ah.

ha ha No, you have broken that record, did you trawl back, to see when was the last time I mentioned him?....disappointing isn't it?....but agonisingly predictable.

[nick76]

1 minute ago, TRO said:

Deans figure was cumulative, so I did Nuno's accordingly.

Oh ok, I’m not sure that counts as it’s over various divisions....it’s mixing different levels and is lifted by his 30 wins in 46 in the Championship

All I was saying that roughly 40% win ratio per season in the PL gets you a really good league position, 7th last season.  We currently have 42% win ratio this year with 13 wins in 31 games.  Can we nick two more wins, who knows, our form isn’t good but if we can then it’s a season of 40% which is generally an easy top ten win ratio.

[Zatman]

1 minute ago, TRO said:

Done ok today though....ah.

ha ha No, you have broken that record, did you trawl back, to see when was the last time I mentioned him?....disappointing isn't it?....but agonisingly predictable.

Phew a draw against Liverpool, what a genius. If only i could find a manager that beat Liverpool 7-2 this season

[TRO]

3 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Oh ok, I’m not sure that counts as it’s over various divisions....it’s mixing different levels and is lifted by his 30 wins in 46 in the Championship

All I was saying that roughly 40% win ratio per season in the PL gets you a really good league position, 7th last season.  We currently have 42% win ratio this year with 13 wins in 31 games.  Can we nick two more wins, who knows, our form isn’t good but if we can then it’s a season of 40% which is generally an easy top ten win ratio.

but Nick, I have to remind you.....I am just answering your posts, which are drifting off my main point.

Let me try again......I don't want Dean gone, I want him to instill more aggression in to the team as a whole, some don't need it as they have it, but on the whole we need to be better equipped to go after opponents and not stand off so much.

I get it, that some folk, won't agree......thats fine.

Our form is pants, I want him to pick it up, collectively.....tomorrow, might be a good opportunity.

[TRO]

7 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Phew a draw against Liverpool, what a genius. If only i could find a manager that beat Liverpool 7-2 this season

not at their place we didn't.....at least go like for like.

Who is doubting our form then anyway?, certainly not me, but we can't dine out on that until the season ends......We need to find some form, now,mate....that is the issue, don't drift.

[TRO]

20 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Oh ok, I’m not sure that counts as it’s over various divisions....it’s mixing different levels and is lifted by his 30 wins in 46 in the Championship

All I was saying that roughly 40% win ratio per season in the PL gets you a really good league position, 7th last season.  We currently have 42% win ratio this year with 13 wins in 31 games.  Can we nick two more wins, who knows, our form isn’t good but if we can then it’s a season of 40% which is generally an easy top ten win ratio.

When win ratio's are computed, they go across various leagues, they calculate them club to club and then cumulative.

Its easier to win in the Championship than the PL in theory, but you can buy better players in the PL in theory, so it washes itself out....you have lower quality to win with in the lower divisions, it all relative in the end.

Win Ratio's are a good bench mark to measure managers overall success, all the better ones have good ratio's, a correlation is clear.

We have also seen over analysation is not always accurate, VAR  is an example of the more complex it gets the solution is still not clear, despite the initial thinking being, it will be.

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by TRO

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

I find it's like politics on here.

The extremists on either side ( 100 percent pro Dean/100 percent anti Dean ) don't realise they usually sound just as ridiculous as each other with their posts.

Some people leave no room for nuanced debate and/or observation.

People with valid opinions and views then have to sugarcoat their posts, or not post at all, just to avoid being attacked by a " mobb " from either side.

We all like Dean, but to pretend as if he is currently performing miracles is simply delusion.

I fall into the " combination of things are responsible for our form " etc camp.

I think the worry some of us have, is that we might not feel we see enough flexibility and/or proactivity to arrest the slide. ( Regardless of personell , I feel we have enough to give a better account of ourselves - win, lose or draw). I personally don't feel we always use what is at our disposal effectively.

I've seen a couple of posters say " They are on the beach because they can't reach Europe, and they are not getting relegated. That's almost an oxymoron, as the reason they have no chance of reaching Europe ( Or close ), is because of their performances, so it's a bit nonsensical to me. Before anyone hits the " Look at where we have come from and people are expecting Europe ", that's not what I'm trying to say.

We have done worse than all the teams below/around us for an extended period of time, from a position of advantage . We've had up to 3/4 games in hand on teams at times + a points advantage. With clusters of " winnable" games we whimpered and chucked away. Not been outplayed, and/outclassed, literally chucked away through a combination of unforced errors, poor game management etc.

Europe or no Europe, you would think as players/club/management they would want to perform as well as they could, to finish as high as possible, win new contracts, find new suitors, enhance their careers etc.

At the end of games, when I'm pissed off, I usually feel alot better after I watch Dean's post match and pressers. They usually leave me thinking "Man he really does see everything we see, he's obviously very smart ".

However, eventually it will get monotonous if the results/methods/application don't reflect the perceived knowledge and vision. At the end of the day, at a certain point, talk becomes cheap.

I kind of just want the season to end, see what we can do in the summer and go again. As I said the other day though, if we don't address certain areas, I could legit see us stagnating or even regressing in this league.

Obviously, Dean gets, and will continue to get more patience and rope from ALL of us, for all the obvious reasons. He ain't stupid though, so I hope/have faith he will address what needs addressing.

Edited April 24, 2021 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[nick76]

17 minutes ago, TRO said:

When win ratio's are computed, they go across various leagues, they calculate them club to club and then cumulative.

Its easier to win in the Championship than the PL in theory, but you can buy better players in the PL in theory, so it washes itself out....you have lower quality to win with in the lower divisions, it all relative in the end.

Win Ratio's are a good bench mark to measure managers overall success, all the better ones have good ratio's, a correlation is clear.

We have also seen over analysation is not always accurate, VAR  is an example of the more complex it gets the solution is still not clear, despite the initial thinking being, it will be.

 

A ratio is calculated for whatever you want to calculate, I was just referring to the PL that’s all.  On a side note, doing a ratio using various leagues/levels is nonsensical because you aren’t comparing apples with apples, it’s floored before you start.  Your second paragraph trying to justify doesn’t work either as you still aren’t comparing apples with apples full stop.  Ratios are also not good over long periods because circumstances are different each season and your goals are different especially in growing clubs.  Anyway we could debate that for a long time I bet, my point was that a 40% rate generally gets you a comfortable top ten 10, which is great season for us this season whereas you were pointing out Deans 40% win rate wasn’t all that.  That’s a my point was... I don’t care about the rest and I didn’t say you wanted Dean replaced re the other post.

[AvfcRigo82]

50 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I find it's like politics on here.

The extremists on either side ( 100 percent pro Dean/100 percent anti Dean ) don't realise they usually sound just as ridiculous as each other with their posts.

Some people leave no room for nuanced debate and/or observation.

People with valid opinions and views then have to sugarcoat their posts, or not post at all, just to avoid being attacked by a " mobb " from either side.

We all like Dean, but to pretend as if he is currently performing miracles is simply delusion.

I fall into the " combination of things are responsible for our form " etc camp.

I think the worry some of us have, is that we might not feel we see enough flexibility and/or proactivity to arrest the slide. ( Regardless of personell , I feel we have enough to give a better account of ourselves - win, lose or draw). I personally don't feel we always use what is at our disposal effectively.

I've seen a couple of posters say " They are on the beach because they can't reach Europe, and they are not getting relegated. That's almost an oxymoron, as the reason they have no chance of reaching Europe ( Or close ), is because of their performances, so it's a bit nonsensical to me. Before anyone hits the " Look at where we have come from and people are expecting Europe ", that's not what I'm trying to say.

We have done worse than all the teams below/around us for an extended period of time, from a position of advantage . We've had up to 3/4 games in hand on teams at times + a points advantage. With clusters of " winnable" games we whimpered and chucked away. Not been outplayed, and/outclassed, literally chucked away through a combination of unforced errors, poor game management etc.

Europe or no Europe, you would think as players/club/management they would want to perform as well as they could, to finish as high as possible, win new contracts, find new suitors, enhance their careers etc.

At the end of games, when I'm pissed off, I usually feel alot better after I watch Dean's post match and pressers. They usually leave me thinking "Man he really does see everything we see, he's obviously very smart ".

However, eventually it will get monotonous if the results/methods/application don't reflect the perceived knowledge and vision. At the end of the day, at a certain point, talk becomes cheap.

I kind of just want the season to end, see what we can do in the summer and go again. As I said the other day though, if we don't address certain areas, I could legit see us stagnating or even regressing in this league.

Obviously, Dean gets, and will continue to get more patience and rope from ALL of us, for all the obvious reasons. He ain't stupid though, so I hope/have faith he will address what needs addressing.

The VillaTalk voice of reason strikes again!

Cracking post sir.

[DaveAV1]

5 hours ago, briny_ear said:

I see this mentioned a lot in these pages. It's been a bit of a rollercoaster of improvement, hasn't it? Involving significant spells of going backwards, like most of last season , and since Christmas this season. And it would be as well to map our spells of better form onto a grid showing when Grealish has been playing well.

So I think the narrative of consistent improvement under Smith is hard to sustain.

I think it’s a bit harsh to say we haven’t progressed because the progression hasn’t been smooth. On that basis clubs would change manager every 3 or 4 months. The was calls for Moyse to be sacked last season and early this season it was apparently just a matter of time before OGS was sacked. 

I don’t know if Dean Smith is the right man to lead us to where we want to be. I do think though when we look at our squad it is very lightweight compared with many squads in the PL and I’m pretty sure weaker than any in the top 6, which is now where many people on here seem to think we should be now. I understand this raised level of expectation given the start of the season but it’s the second half of the season that squad strength or weakness is generally exposed. I read a comment recently, sorry I can’t remember by who, that basically said good managers can get results with the same players because they know how to get more from the players, which I’d agree with. The post then used Turchel as an example of that at Chelsea. I’m sorry but tweaking the Chelsea squad and looking along the bench at Villa Park when you’re struggling to find a player who can perhaps pass to a team mate occasionally really isn’t the same.

Of course I’d like Dean Smith to do well, because that means Villa are doing well. However better informed people than any of us on here will be making the decision on who continues with our progress. 

[foreveryoung]

9 hours ago, nick76 said:

I’m assuming you have no medical background, so this is an uninformed opinion, just like mine. I justify mine by articles, you justify yours by your opinion only.

Have I or anybody denied that? No, in fact I have said that.  It’s plainly obvious and almost all teams would struggle without a world class talent like Jack, especially a team that is only in its second season of the division.

Do they miss the main man? Of course.  The rest is your usual BS

Nope we’ve talked about this, still a lot to play for in league position in attracting potentially new players. You don’t agree, fine, doesn’t mean it’s not true

Don’t disagree with this but his presence may lift some of our other players, opposition teams may refocus on him allowing space for others.  Just because Jack himself might not have much impact, his presence could, plus he’s a talent that could help nick a goal for a win.  I mean look at Everton last night sneaking a win by something so silly.  Jack can create moments even in his rusty as an old cortina fitness levels and he couldn’t do any worse than Ross on the pitch.

You gotta love multi quoting, every one of my 'opinions' answered.

[nick76]

Just now, foreveryoung said:

You gotta love multi quoting, every one of my 'opinions' answered.

I guess you don’t understand what debate is or a forum is for...

[Villa87]

9 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I find it's like politics on here.

The extremists on either side ( 100 percent pro Dean/100 percent anti Dean ) don't realise they usually sound just as ridiculous as each other with their posts.

Some people leave no room for nuanced debate and/or observation.

People with valid opinions and views then have to sugarcoat their posts, or not post at all, just to avoid being attacked by a " mobb " from either side.

We all like Dean, but to pretend as if he is currently performing miracles is simply delusion.

I fall into the " combination of things are responsible for our form " etc camp.

I think the worry some of us have, is that we might not feel we see enough flexibility and/or proactivity to arrest the slide. ( Regardless of personell , I feel we have enough to give a better account of ourselves - win, lose or draw). I personally don't feel we always use what is at our disposal effectively.

I've seen a couple of posters say " They are on the beach because they can't reach Europe, and they are not getting relegated. That's almost an oxymoron, as the reason they have no chance of reaching Europe ( Or close ), is because of their performances, so it's a bit nonsensical to me. Before anyone hits the " Look at where we have come from and people are expecting Europe ", that's not what I'm trying to say.

We have done worse than all the teams below/around us for an extended period of time, from a position of advantage . We've had up to 3/4 games in hand on teams at times + a points advantage. With clusters of " winnable" games we whimpered and chucked away. Not been outplayed, and/outclassed, literally chucked away through a combination of unforced errors, poor game management etc.

Europe or no Europe, you would think as players/club/management they would want to perform as well as they could, to finish as high as possible, win new contracts, find new suitors, enhance their careers etc.

At the end of games, when I'm pissed off, I usually feel alot better after I watch Dean's post match and pressers. They usually leave me thinking "Man he really does see everything we see, he's obviously very smart ".

However, eventually it will get monotonous if the results/methods/application don't reflect the perceived knowledge and vision. At the end of the day, at a certain point, talk becomes cheap.

I kind of just want the season to end, see what we can do in the summer and go again. As I said the other day though, if we don't address certain areas, I could legit see us stagnating or even regressing in this league.

Obviously, Dean gets, and will continue to get more patience and rope from ALL of us, for all the obvious reasons. He ain't stupid though, so I hope/have faith he will address what needs addressing.

Great post

[foreveryoung]

3 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I guess you don’t understand what debate is or a forum is for...

I thought social debate, not defensive, not to try and justify why your right and others are wrong. My opinion is as above. Like I said, nothing to do with Covid, just a manager who is struggling to motivate the team without Grealish. It's my opinion and to me I believe close to the truth. If he don't improve more questions will be asked, maybe from the board. He needs to be better, progress gained half way through the season then we fall off a cliff is just not good enough and I'm sure the board will be thinking the same way. Also if we pushed for European football we may have attracted better players for next season.

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I thought social debate, not defensive, not to try and justify why your right and others are wrong.

Seeing as you love my multi quotes  social debate but it's nice if sometimes you include facts rather trying to claim fact when it's just your opinion

4 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Like I said, nothing to do with Covid, just a manager who is struggling to motivate the team

opinion

4 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

It's my opinion and to me I believe close to the truth.

again no medical background, no supporting in fact or articles....just a random opinion, biased because you dont like Smith.  You obviously believe it's closer to the truth because it's your opinion.  You're not going to say, "this is my opinion but it's far away from the truth" you say some silly things but I dont think even you would say that, you're not quite Villalad21 yet

7 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

If he don't improve more questions will be asked, maybe from the board. He needs to be better, progress gained half way through the season then we fall off a cliff is just not good enough and I'm sure the board will be thinking the same way.

I agree but the difference is timing, you think now.  I'll be surprised if they really think seriously like this until into next season.

8 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Also if we pushed for European football we may have attracted better players for next season.

Dont even know what this means, that Smith wasnt trying to win games, to be further up the league....that he wanted to be around midtable.  So Smith purposely didnt try for Europe?!?!  Didnt try to get further up the league!

Anyway glad you love my multi quotes...

[foreveryoung]

13 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Seeing as you love my multi quotes  social debate but it's nice if sometimes you include facts rather trying to claim fact when it's just your opinion

opinion

again no medical background, no supporting in fact or articles....just a random opinion, biased because you dont like Smith.  You obviously believe it's closer to the truth because it's your opinion.  You're not going to say, "this is my opinion but it's far away from the truth" you say some silly things but I dont think even you would say that, you're not quite Villalad21 yet

I agree but the difference is timing, you think now.  I'll be surprised if they really think seriously like this until into next season.

Dont even know what this means, that Smith wasnt trying to win games, to be further up the league....that he wanted to be around midtable.  So Smith purposely didnt try for Europe?!?!  Didnt try to get further up the league!

Anyway glad you love my multi quotes...

[lexicon]

I really can't abide this 'It's just my opinion, I don't care about facts' way of thinking - It's just incredibly arrogant. But then we do live in the 'we're fed up of experts' time, so what can you honestly expect these days?