Dean Smith

[Peter Griffin]

1 minute ago, KMitch said:

I doubt it...  I still think you're overestimating the amount of Villa supporters who want Smith out.  

I don't think it has anything to do with whether fans want Deano or not. Fonseca is up there in the elite category. I love my VW, its a great car, I don't want to change it but if someone offered me a Ferrari I have to admit I would sacrifice my lovely VW for it

[OutByEaster?]

Gents, there's an actual article linking us with Fonseca, if you wish to, please feel free to start a thread to discuss that speculation.

This thread will remain for discussion of Dean Smith.

Thank you.

[MaVilla]

51 minutes ago, YLN said:

Oh. Well i didn't know that.

These are my questions too. I have concerns. In particular around how this season has started and the formation etc. I haven't read much of this thread and am only going by the west ham match thread, which was very strongly anti Smith. I know, match thread.

I am still of the opinion that being so adamant that we need smith out is not correct, and we should be adopting a wait and see approach, as you seem to be doing. I'm not certain that Smith will turn it around,  but this is not the time to be certain, one way or the other.

I mean....im not gonna lie, im very much on the fence right now with regard to Deano, i have said some very negative things recently, but thats more of me venting some frustration on an electronic talking board, but i do hold both positive and negative views of Deano, he has done some great things, but he is also seriously infuriating at times and has some major flaws which i hope doesnt cost him his job! (on the assumption that if he does survive, he has earned it by turning our fortunes around).

I think if he loses the next game, he will be in serious trouble, even if not from the board, definitely from the fans.....regardless of any historic positives.

[Rossco76]

I guess when you think about it logically without emotion, with the change in playing personnel this season and the disjointed preseason, IF the board decide to make a change to the manager, you're much much better off doing it sooner rather than later to give the new guy almost a kind of a clean slate.

I think the board will wait however until Xmas and if we're mid-table at Xmas I think Deano stays. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if he goes this international break if we lose against Saints though, just hope they've got something properly lined up in the background if that is the case.

[briny_ear]

1 hour ago, Keyblade said:

It's such a small sample size though. How many games has he been without Jack, less than 30 over 3 seasons? He was our best player, a world class talent. It doesn't take rocket science to deduce that there would be a drop-off when he's out.

Also I wasn't cherry picking at all. Ironically, singling out a single variable and say it is/was the source of our current troubles and/or the source of our previous triumphs sounds like a better description of cherry picking, but I wouldn't accuse anyone of that.

I pointed out that specific West Ham result as an amusing parallel, but I think it's universally agreed upon that we were noticeably worse since the covid outbreak both in our play and our results. In fact, let me delve into that:

In the 7 games since the outbreak, and before the Grealish injury, we only picked up 7 points (1 ppg) compared to the 11 points in the previous 7 (1.57 ppg). The average position of the teams in the latter run of 7 games was was 10.5 compared to 12 for the former. In other words, we did noticeably worse in a slightly easier run of fixtures. There was a distinct drop-off in terms of results, and if you recall, in the performances too.

Grealish was then out for 11 games (he came on as a sub for the Everton game, but that was very late on in the game). In those 11 games, we picked up 12 points (1.1 ppg). For comparison, the average position of the teams we faced was 10.7. In other words, we did roughly the same as we did right before he got injured, with a slightly more difficult fixture list to boot.

So now with this context in mind I'll ask; is it cherry picking to posit that we were just as bad after the outbreak before Grealish got injured, or would you say it's a fair assessment? Because if it's cherry picking, then so is "Smith can't get anything out of the side without Grealish".

 

I think this is a fruitless debate, and no doubt very tedious to other readers, so I will just say that I don’t understand your figures. If you don’t count brief late appearances as substitute against Everton and Palace in May, which I agree you shouldn’t, then Jack was out for 14 matches with his shin injury. During that time we picked up 13 points, so 0.93 points per game. This season without Jack we have picked up 10 points from 10 games, so 1 point per game. However you choose to explain it, Smith’s record without Grealish in the side has been very poor.

I don’t know what point you are making by referring to the “outbreak” but if we take that period as matches between after 8 January (the Liverpool cup match) and 13 February (Jack’s last game before injury) then we played 7 games for 10 points - wins against Newcastle, Southampton and Arsenal and a draw against Brighton. So that’s 10 points from 7 games, or 1.42 points per game. Not as good as pre-Christmas but still significantly better than the matches without Jack.

However, I suspect this is very boring for other posters (I take my full share of the responsibility for that) and is about past events that can’t be changed. It’s what happens next that is most important.

[Zatman]

1 hour ago, andym said:

Our pass accuracy has generally been very poor under Smith, we only averaged 75% first season back up and 77% last season. 

That he seemingly refuses to address this is one of the biggest concerns for me, and actually we seemed to go in the other direction when Shakespeare arrived, more and more just hit and hope on the break, relying on Grealish to make the most of it.

You are never going to consistently control games if you give the ball away so cheaply. It puts more pressure on the defense, and you get tired from constantly having to chase after the ball again. The teams who finish higher in the league are all hitting at least low 80's; they keep the ball better and they do more with it.

Its probably not helped that his first name on the team sheet in midfield hasn't individually averaged over 77% yet (and is a shocking 70% so far this year). Even those 'next level down from the top ' teams (so between 4th and 10th) have multiple midfielders hitting between 80 and 85%.

 

 

 

 

One of Leicester tactics to win the league

[KentVillan]

18 minutes ago, Rossco76 said:

I guess when you think about it logically without emotion, with the change in playing personnel this season and the disjointed preseason, IF the board decide to make a change to the manager, you're much much better off doing it sooner rather than later to give the new guy almost a kind of a clean slate.

I think the board will wait however until Xmas and if we're mid-table at Xmas I think Deano stays. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if he goes this international break if we lose against Saints though, just hope they've got something properly lined up in the background if that is the case.

Brighton gave Hughton a full season where he narrowly avoided relegation, and although it nearly cost them, I think they just about called it right.

It’s much easier to tap up good managers in the spring and give them a full summer to add players and work on their ideas with the squad away from the weekly grind of league fixtures.

Unless people think Smith is getting us relegated, which seems unlikely to me, I’d stick with him. Fonseca is decent, but Family Guy is getting a bit overexcited. Not sure he merits a knee jerk dumping.

[TrentVilla]

Multiple posts removed - please check names of threads if unclear.

[Keyblade]

2 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

I think this is a fruitless debate, and no doubt very tedious to other readers, so I will just say that I don’t understand your figures. If you don’t count brief late appearances as substitute against Everton and Palace in May, which I agree you shouldn’t, then Jack was out for 14 matches with his shin injury. During that time we picked up 13 points, so 0.93 points per game. This season without Jack we have picked up 10 points from 10 games, so 1 point per game. However you choose to explain it, Smith’s record without Grealish in the side has been very poor.

I don’t know what point you are making by referring to the “outbreak” but if we take that period as matches between after 8 January (the Liverpool cup match) and 13 February (Jack’s last game before injury) then we played 7 games for 10 points - wins against Newcastle, Southampton and Arsenal and a draw against Brighton. So that’s 10 points from 7 games, or 1.42 points per game. Not as good as pre-Christmas but still significantly better than the matches without Jack.

However, I suspect this is very boring for other posters (I take my full share of the responsibility for that) and is about past events that can’t be changed. It’s what happens next that is most important.

The point I was making was that I was commenting on a trend seen before his injury, which you dismissed as cherry picking as if I were basing it on a single result. The jury's still out on this conclusion based on a very limited data set. There are so many other variables to consider. Each season had different circumstances that make it hard to definitively narrow down the root cause to a single thing, which is my overall point. The guy isn't even at the club anymore, I don't even know why he's still part of this argument.

[Peter Griffin]

24 minutes ago, Rossco76 said:

I think the board will wait however until Xmas and if we're mid-table at Xmas I think Deano stays. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if he goes this international break if we lose against Saints though, just hope they've got something properly lined up in the background if that is the case.

I agree, if we are midtable at xmas there is no way Smith will be gone. The challenge Smith has is getting to xmas and getting through the next few games. If he can do that he will be safe imo

[TRO]

7 hours ago, M_Afro said:

Fair enough. Do you have some stats that offer hope? In my mind the stats are pretty damning but the performances speak for themselves and don’t rely on anything deemed to be selective. Something rational to cling to would be appreciated.

In 86 games, we have won 27 games and drawn 16 ( thats back to promotion year)....thats 97 points, an average points haul of just over 1 point per game.....those are the facts....This latest dip of 4 games, doesn't tell the big picture, its just a snap shot....sure we could go on a winning run or alternatively stay like we are, its anyones guess or gamble.

Over that period many forms of mitigation is negated....but you can select an alternative period, i.e last 20 games, but it remains much the same....The last 20 games we made 7 wins and 3 draws, 24 points, just over a point per game again...The picture remains so similar.

Folk can glean what they like from that.

Edited November 2, 2021 by TRO

[TRO]

33 minutes ago, Peter Griffin said:

I agree, if we are midtable at xmas there is no way Smith will be gone. The challenge Smith has is getting to xmas and getting through the next few games. If he can do that he will be safe imo

The problem is Pete, it was mooted after the heavy Leicester defeat at home, which was nearly 2 seasons ago...that he maybe on borrowed time.

sure we had a good season 2020/21....but the sequence of results has a familiar tone to them, under closer scrutiny.....last season, we did manage to limit the back to back losses, that happened 4 times, we have to go back to the relegation scrap of 2019/20 to see the 4 losses on the trot, that happened twice, plus 2 x 3 losses on the trot.

[Farlz]

If Saints batter us on Friday and we lose that’ll be the end for Smith I’m certain. This is gonna be as big as it gets, he has to get it right. 

Smith has turned it around from the death before and I fully believe he can do it again. It can’t end like this. 

[villalad21]

All I want for Christmas is Potter. 

[villalad21]

The owners won't act irrationally because of 5 games.

However. Barely hovering above 1.00 point on average in 2021 is a sackable offense to most managers.

[Rugeley Villa]

From what I’ve been reading this morning he’s on borrowed time. Fail to win Friday and he’s gone I think .

[M_Afro]

I think the DM article is likely to be nonsense. Where would they have got their information from? Have we ever leaked stuff to the DM before?

[tomav84]

1 hour ago, villalad21 said:

All I want for Christmas is Potter. 

yes, we know, trust me we know. you've said a number of times already

[tomav84]

18 minutes ago, M_Afro said:

I think the DM article is likely to be nonsense. Where would they have got their information from? Have we ever leaked stuff to the DM before?

even if it's correct, it ultimately means nothing aside from proving that we're better run than the likes of newcastle and spurs. we would want to sound out potential replacements before taking action.

[chrisvilla4]

Anyone seen Neil Cutler about recently? Always felt he is a positive part of the backroom staff.