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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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An 11 day break now until our next league game. I'd rest a few for the cup game this weekend and hopefully by the Wigan game we will have one or two more additions as well as the new keeper.

Our next 4 games are Wigan away, Hull and Ipswich at home and Reading away. We have to be winning all four which would likely put us into the top six then the challenge will be to stay there and see how high up we can get.

I think this is a very mediocre championship. Sha and QPR are only just outside top six and Sheff Utd are 2 points outside automatic. Our sights will still be on finishing top 6.

 

Edited by markavfc40
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We looked mentally and physically exhausted today. I’m confident the results will pick up now that the fixtures are spreading out a bit and we have time to get players back from injury and or get new recruits in. There were a few upsets across the league generally  today and I think that is down to Xmas fixture congestion, which has hit us particularly hard with our injury list and thin squad. McGinn and Hutton looked particularly knackered I thought. 

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41 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

 I'd rest a few for the cup game this weekend

I'd honestly just play the kids. What's the point in us wasting energy or risking injury? Are we under any delusion that we're going to win the FA Cup? 

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2 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I'd honestly just play the kids.

This.

As it stands I think it's the only choice we have. 

However, I'd throw people like Whelan, Nyland, Lansbury, Hogan etc. a game as they are fringe players and could do with the match fitness.

We need everyone else who is vital to us rested and ready for the next league game.

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12 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I'd honestly just play the kids. What's the point in us wasting energy or risking injury? Are we under any delusion that we're going to win the FA Cup? 

Also if we were amazingly to win the FA Cup we would be in Europa LEague next season which would ruin any chance of promotion next season

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I can understand people getting a bit concerned about making playoffs but Smiths record since taking over would still get us around 75 points which would be close.

We also need to consider out of his 14 games in charge only 5 of those games were against teams currently below us in the table. 11 out of 15 available points were picked up in those games. 

Win the next 3-4 and get Jack back and a few signings and it starts to look promising again. 

All teams seem to be dropping unexpected points it’s just hurting us more due to us playing catch-up. 

Dont give up hope guys. 

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6 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Have you not seen the last 5 games.

Play like we have in the next 20 games and it will relegation we're heading towards.

We have been in awful form and dropping too many points.

As many say, since losing Axel and Jack we have gone to ****. On that basis by the time they are back we could be too far behind by this point.

Yes but I also saw the 5 or so games before that. 

We haven’t played well but I think we should have won today. Leeds we should have got a draw. The other results were fair. 

Leeds at one stage this season went 8 games with only 2 wins. They’ve just lost 2 in a row. Bad form happens. A few back to back wins and it all looks different.

Jack will eventually return and we’re expecting new signings. Trust me we’ll make playoffs. 

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6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Yes but I also saw the 5 or so games before that. 

We haven’t played well but I think we should have won today. Leeds we should have got a draw. The other results were fair. 

Leeds at one stage this season went 8 games with only 2 wins. They’ve just lost 2 in a row. Bad form happens. A few back to back wins and it all looks different.

Jack will eventually return and we’re expecting new signings. Trust me we’ll make playoffs. 

I will ride your wave of optimism as only 5 games ago I felt we were on target for the Automatics!..

Just annoying seeing the teams above us lose and a chance to capitalise on it and we ourselves lose or draw.     :bang:

 

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5 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I will ride your wave of optimism as only 5 games ago I felt we were on target for the Automatics!..

Just annoying seeing the teams above us lose and a chance to capitalise on it and we ourselves lose or draw.     :bang:

 

I think we still have only lost once since played at QPR that was end of October

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51 minutes ago, Zatman said:

I think we still have only lost once since played at QPR that was end of October

I accept that dude and it is a cracking stat but for me the frustration comes when we draw to the Preston's, the QPR's, or throw away winning positions etc.

We should be slaughtering these teams - with or without Jack Grealish.

We really need to get in a few key astute signings this month.

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3 hours ago, Zatman said:

Also if we were amazingly to win the FA Cup we would be in Europa LEague next season which would ruin any chance of promotion next season

Villa fans: trying to imagine FA Cup glory for the first time in 62 years (and our first real trophy of any kind in 23 years) but then getting annoyed at the thought of long-missed European nights in case they potentially hypothetically get in the way of something else positive that might or might not happen regardless. 

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1 hour ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I accept that dude and it is a cracking stat but for me the frustration comes when we draw to the Preston's, the QPR's, or throw away winning positions etc.

We should be slaughtering these teams - with or without Jack Grealish.

We really need to get in a few key astute signings this month.

Preston missed out on playoffs by 2 points last season while Leeds and Norwich finished 13th and 14th. Goes to show how competitive this league is and how fortunes change.

I suppose it also shows how far making a good coaching appointment can take you. Leeds have made a great coupe in Bielsa and Farke seems to be working for Norwich too. Karanka at Forest has taken them from 17th to 7th in 6 months. Let's see if Smith can take us from 10th to playoffs in the same amount of time. It's doable.

Stoke are another example like us of a team with all the talent and calibre player to breeze through yet for one reason or another haven't taken the league by storm. I mean Krkic was touted as the next Lionel Messi at one point. Joe Allen played nearly 100 games for Liverpool, both players still in their prime. Berahino is not even in his prime and has a deserved 100 PL games under his belt. Butland is only 25 and en route to some degree of international career with England. Shawcross is 31 and has 10 years as a PL mainstay regular to his name.Diouf 100 PL games to his name. Fletcher over 200 appearances for Manchester United. Williams won the PL with Leicester just 3 years ago. Adam, Affelay, Ince. And we think we're stacked?

I personally don't think we've played anyone outside a fiercely competitive top half of the table under Smith except for Bolton and QPR, maybe Preston but if you go by last season they're another promotion candidate. Won 6, drawn 5 and lost 3 in that time. Not bad. Perhaps not what we'd of wished for in an ideal season.

I'm not sure I expect us to slaughter teams as a divine right but if it were to be against anyone in the division then in my opinion we haven't really played them yet under Smith. So you might be in for a pleasant surprise against some of the lesser teams when we meet them. We have already done it to Derby and Middlesbrough. So it can be done.

Bruce got Hull automatically promoted with 79 points once with a total of 15 losses, and 18 of his 24 victories came from 1-0 wins. Hull had a GD of +9 that season. Goes to show you don't have to dominate opponents, but you have to be adequately competitive consistently for most of the season. As it stands we are on course for 71 points and that's without facing the teams that I expect us to beat. So who knows how our fortunes may change, with a bit of consistency we might just go on a run and surprise ourselves.

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2 hours ago, Merson08 said:

Thought for the day: If games were decided by teams that scored the first goal, Villa would be top of the league with an 11 point gap. 

That's remarkable, truly. Because I have no idea how to interpret that information other than we are often playing on the front foot.

Goes to show you play to the whistle and that means 90 minutes of competition, because moments of class and errors alike can happen at any given time during that period.

No good scoring first every game is you go on to concede to the point of draw or deficit.

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13 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

An 11 day break now until our next league game. I'd rest a few for the cup game this weekend and hopefully by the Wigan game we will have one or two more additions as well as the new keeper.

Our next 4 games are Wigan away, Hull and Ipswich at home and Reading away. We have to be winning all four which would likely put us into the top six then the challenge will be to stay there and see how high up we can get.

I think this is a very mediocre championship. Sha and QPR are only just outside top six and Sheff Utd are 2 points outside automatic. Our sights will still be on finishing top 6.

 

As it stands Hull will be yet another "Entertaining" 2-2 draw as their best players are the two widemen, Grosicki and Bowen and we know our issues at fullback against pace.

We really have to be winning the other three to get some momentum back, season feels like it's passing us by now.

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