Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Arj Guy]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

I'm just curious, do you know how many active personnel Ukraine has compared to Russia?

The longer this war goes on, the less troops Russia have as they don't want to mobilise as it would be an admittance that it's a war. Ukraine is currently training 700.000 men in the West and there's a two week waiting period to volunteer for the UA army. These men will be trained, supplied and organised by NATO tactics. These things take time. The army fighting Russia in the east is largely still employing a hybrid between Soviet tactics and NATO tactics as they've been in contact since day one.

Also, do please note the 'gains' you're suggesting. Russia hasn't moved past a defensive line since Popasna using force, they've been lured into Severodonetsk only to be pushed out again, and now the front is at a total standstill except for around Kherson where Ukraine is pushing slightly every day, and around Kharkiv where small villages change hands every other day.

Russia control the vast majority of Severodonetsk, Ukraine's own officials say Russia is occupying 80% of it. But sure they've been pushed out because you say so. Spreading disinformation on a message board does not change the reality of what is happening on the ground. As for this huge army that is being prepared in Western Ukraine that will drive the Russians out in a great counter offensive, well I'll believe it when I see it

Edited June 16, 2022 by Arj Guy

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

41 minutes ago, tinker said:

we have to stop using their energy for them to lose the war

This is the key to it all.  Stop giving the words removed money for energy.  

Turn it off and solve the problems that brings.  

Edited June 16, 2022 by Amsterdam_Neil_D

[bickster]

Just now, Arj Guy said:

Russia control most of Severodonetsk, Ukraine's own officials say Russia is occupying 70%- 80% of it. But sure they've been pushed out because you say so. Spreading disinformation on a message board does not change the reality of what is happening on the ground

He isn't spreading any misinformation. The front line in Severodonetsk has ebbed and flowed over the last couple of weeks. There was a point where Russia claimed to have control over the entire city but Ukraine took half of it back due to some subterfuge which has yet to be revealed.The front line on the western Front hasn't moved in weeks. If you search back three weeks in this topic you will see people saying much the same as you, yet here we are, with the front line in almost the same place as it was then. The only places where the front line has moved are around Kherson and Kharkiv and that is due to Ukraine  gains, yesterday you were talking about Russia taking Odessa, except on that Southern front they have been in retreat for weeks. The Ukraine forces are now less than 10km from Kherson city centre.

You just don't appear to be well informed on where the front line is and it's movement.

[chrisp65]

56 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The idea that if Ukraine isn't 'rolling Russia back' is some sort of win for Putin, it really isn't when you look at what is happening. It's a faltering bit of thought process if Ukraine needs to be rolling Russia back in order for people in the West to think that it is going well, imo. People who are arguing for appeasement use every little meter Russia moves forward (be it by Ukraine withdrawal or otherwise), to say "See! Ukraine needs to give away the Donbas and Crimea so we can have our oil and gas without feeling bad about it!" (see Chomsky, Scholz, Macron, Orban, Draghi).

If you count injured, missing, pow's and deserters Russia is nearing 200.000 troops. That is 1/4 of its total number of soldiers. How you can consider that a benefit for Putin I don't quite understand. Bear in mind that an army culminates at around 80% combat power. It then takes months and months to reequip, train and supply these troops. Russia doesn't have the backfill capability without mobilising.

It’s not an idea that Russia gaining territory is a win for Putin, it’s plain fact. I don’t know how else it could be seen.

If Putin spends a fortune gaining it, if he crashes his currency, spends his gold, needs to sell oil to someone else, loses 200,000 soldiers, so what? The only metric, the only KPI, is land. At the end of this if he has gained land, he’s up on the deal. Do you imagine that in 25 years time the map will have a little asterix on the border with a note that says ‘ah yes but at what moral and financial cost?’.

If you can still read that as appeasement, I’m not sure what else I can say.

[PussEKatt]

The bottom line is,that Putin is a rocket polisher. 

[Straggler]

54 minutes ago, bickster said:

Not sure Putin can hear him in a coma 

Colour me interested?  What is this rumour, I love to hear about bad things happening to bad people.

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, Straggler said:

Colour me interested?  What is this rumour, I love to hear about bad things happening to bad people.

Twitter reckons he had an operation that went badly, very much bucket of salt needed at this stage.

[bickster]

20 minutes ago, Genie said:

Twitter reckons he had an operation that went badly, very much bucket of salt needed at this stage.

Originated in Ukraine supposedly from Intel leak but I’m sceptical too

[Arj Guy]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

He isn't spreading any misinformation. The front line in Severodonetsk has ebbed and flowed over the last couple of weeks. There was a point where Russia claimed to have control over the entire city but Ukraine took half of it back due to some subterfuge which has yet to be revealed.The front line on the western Front hasn't moved in weeks. If you search back three weeks in this topic you will see people saying much the same as you, yet here we are, with the front line in almost the same place as it was then. The only places where the front line has moved are around Kherson and Kharkiv and that is due to Ukraine  gains, yesterday you were talking about Russia taking Odessa, except on that Southern front they have been in retreat for weeks. The Ukraine forces are now less than 10km from Kherson city centre.

You just don't appear to be well informed on where the front line is and it's movement.

He claimed Russia have been pushed out of Severodonetsk when they are currently occupying 80% of it. So yes that is spreading misinformation. As for Odessa and Kharkiv I meant that Russia would look to make gains in those areas once they have taken the Donbas. Russia are busy handing out Russian passports in Kherson, Ukraine aren't getting it back

[magnkarl]

29 minutes ago, Arj Guy said:

He claimed Russia have been pushed out of Severodonetsk when they are currently occupying 80% of it. So yes that is spreading misinformation. As for Odessa and Kharkiv I meant that Russia would look to make gains in those areas once they have taken the Donbas. Russia are busy handing out Russian passports in Kherson, Ukraine aren't getting it back

Where do you get your news? Russia was pushed out of Severodonetsk after they claimed to have taken it. Now Ukraine is retreating to Lysychansk as there's nothing left of the city, they've left a garrison in the Azot Chemical Plant to bind Russian resources for months ahead. You said Russia would get the whole coastline including Odessa. That is as far from the truth as possible. You should really try to see how ironic it is that you're calling out other posters on misinformation when your information is your own hot take rather than what is going on in Ukraine.

Here's your post, in case you forgot:

Quote

Ukraine will lose Donbas, most and perhaps all of its South Coast and probably Kharkiv and even more eventually. 

If you look at the original line of contact, Russia has made extremely few gains other than the South Coast. That isn't misinformation. The reason why Russia has gained anything is because Ukraine is fighting a smart war rather than standing their ground and getting slaughtered. It's what's happened in Lyman, Popasna, Rubizhine +++. When Russia gains, they trade a couple of BTG's a few dozen vehicles and an enormous logistical strain for it. Ukraine often counter attacks into the flanks and then they end up having to retreat.

Edited June 16, 2022 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Strange choice of video, Ukraine loading equipment into a one-off plane that the Russians blew to bits on the ground at the start of the war. Surely he could have found a clip of Caesar Howitzers that they've already donated in action. Plenty of those videos exist

When it comes to Macron (and Sholz etc) it really is a case of judge them by their actions not their words. I know he's been to Kyiv today and hopefully had a damascine moment but the proof as they say is in the pudding

 

[ender4]

1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Has he changed his mind about working with Russia to get a settlement?

Or is it just random words that he’ll forget about next week?

Edited June 16, 2022 by ender4

[magnkarl]

53 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Has he changed his mind about working with Russia to get a settlement?

Or is it just random words that he’ll forget about next week?

I’m not all clued up on French politics, but at least Scholz is feeling the pressure from his own parliament. There’s literally no one except for some of the old Merkel/Schröder guard who doesn’t want to deliver more. The public is also squarely for ramping up the support massively. 

It’s not that I don’t think Caesars are useful, they just won’t be useful while in France. PzH training should be all but complete in Netherlands, so there’s literally no excuse left for Scholz.

[sidcow]

Macron is also having trouble at home, although he won the election he's struggling to get a coalition together to run the country and pass laws. 

Maybe he's being pressured into a different tack by a potential partner. 

[foreveryoung]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

Strange choice of video, Ukraine loading equipment into a one-off plane that the Russians blew to bits on the ground at the start of the war. Surely he could have found a clip of Caesar Howitzers that they've already donated in action. Plenty of those videos exist

When it comes to Macron (and Sholz etc) it really is a case of judge them by their actions not their words. I know he's been to Kyiv today and hopefully had a damascine moment but the proof as they say is in the pudding

 

That's not the 225, 6 engined monster, that's a 124, there are plenty of those left.

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

That's not the 225, 6 engined monster, that's a 124, there are plenty of those left.

 

[mjmooney]

On 05/06/2022 at 21:47, magnkarl said:

Another Russian general ambushed in his car and sent packing. His vehicle was ambushed by Ukrainian SOF.

Roman Kutuzov was his name and he was involved in the horrendous killing of civilians North of Kiev. 

A distinguished name in Russian military history. 

[ml1dch]

 

Looks thrilled.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

 

Looks thrilled.

Probably not in the mood for some French Kissing.