17/18 Promotion Charge

[terrytini]

11 hours ago, DCJonah said:

And making the playoffs means we need to beat two top half teams back to back, which again form doesn't suggest we would be capable of it even if high 60's was enough to scrape into the playoffs. 

I’m afraid it’s a little worse than that if we look at the only factual information from Bruces time with us.

He has played 29 times against sides in the Top 15 And secured 8 wins, totalling 32 points at an average of 1.103 points per game/(goal difference -11)

Against sides in the bottom 8 he’s played 18 times and won 12, getting 39 points at an average of 2.16 points per game ( goal difference +16).

Taking a realistic points tally for promotion to be 92 points ( 2 per game over the season) he now needs 2.14 per game.

In other words for the rest of the season he needs to perform as well against ALL clubs as he so far has ( with quite a large sample size of 47 games ) against the Bottom 8 only.

Results against the other 15 have to improve stratospherically.

[terrytini]

Or to put it another way, had we only played sides in the bottom 8 we’d have been promoted.

Had we only played sides in the other 15 we’d have been relegated.

[terrytini]

Away from home the record is 22 points from 23 games at just under a point a game.

Taking all this into account I confidentially predict that as long as we (a) only play at home, and (b) only play teams in the bottom 8, this thread will justify its existence into April !!!

[TRO]

I have been having an indepth conversation this afternoon with a few Blues fans.

sensible ones guys, yes there is some.

we were discussing our last 2 games.its obvious they are happy, i am not.

the key point to me is DESIRE and application.

They made the point, they had a few key players back granted, but it was the approach that was different.....they out cardiffed Cardiff.They showed intensity and urgency and imposed themselves.....They got in to them and competed and won their individual battles

We was lethargic, leggy and second to every second ball....we lost out one on one.

The bits that will deny us promotion, is the ability to impose ourselves, we are passive and apologetic....when we apply ourselves we can beat anyone.....but its inconsistent.

we need assertion, if we have any hopes.

 

 

[TRO]

4 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Away from home the record is 22 points from 23 games at just under a point a game.

Taking all this into account I confidentially predict that as long as we (a) only play at home, and (b) only play teams in the bottom 8, this thread will justify its existence into April !!!

Terry.....you only have to watch that game to know we are not right......confidence is often talked about in this game.....4 wins on the bounce and we produce that.

Edited October 15, 2017 by TRO

[terrytini]

Just now, TRO said:

Terry.....you only have to watch that game to know we are not right.

I’ve no wish to continue the Bruce in/out debate as of itself -  I think we’ve all had enough !!

But yes you are right - I was there and we are not right, but that has been the case right through pre-season, through August, and, yes, through a run of some good results........nothing about Saturdays game surprised me......in fact I’m actually more surprised at the reactions ........looks like a lot of people saw improvements that were not necessarily there and subsequently got disappointed.

[TRO]

11 minutes ago, terrytini said:

I’ve no wish to continue the Bruce in/out debate as of itself -  I think we’ve all had enough !!

But yes you are right - I was there and we are not right, but that has been the case right through pre-season, through August, and, yes, through a run of some good results........nothing about Saturdays game surprised me......in fact I’m actually more surprised at the reactions ........looks like a lot of people saw improvements that were not necessarily there and subsequently got disappointed.

I wrote in an earlier post......i had an idea that was going to be our response and I'm ****off with myself for thinking it.

Contrary to our battles, i have never disagreed with your view of us.....just unsure who is to blame.....and thought time would cure us with good coaching work......so much for hoping.

I know under normal circumstances it has to be the manager.....but i guess our 6 years of poo has mellowed my thoughts and i have been quick to defend stability.

He was shaking his head a lot yesterday and gesticullating, so i guess he was not happy....but so many were below par.

.....but this team is not right yet.

the amount of basic inefficiencies, stunned me to watching it in silence.....if i was them i would be ashamed.

Edited October 15, 2017 by TRO

[villa89]

It's going to be tight to make it into the playoffs. Very tight. Automatic promotion chances are long gone because of the manager. 

[GeordieVillan]

10 hours ago, villa89 said:

It's going to be tight to make it into the playoffs. Very tight. Automatic promotion chances are long gone because of the manager. 

How can you say that? To say our chances of automatic promotion are long gone is just ridiculous. Its October and we are 5 points off second place.

Is it impossible that we might continue as we are for a little while and then suddenly "click" and close this gap? You might think its unlikely because the manager seems to be inept, but its not impossible.

If we get through this season with a team that "isn't right", or isn't playing attractive free flowing football, but we end up getting promoted, Bruce will have done his job. The issue will then be assessing whether Bruce is the suitable person to manage us in the Premier League, and I would imagine the general consensus would be that he is not.

Lets be pragmatic, its our first defeat after 8 unbeaten - thats a very decent run. If we can get 6 points from the next 3 games, we will still be very much in the mix. This league is all about staying in touch with the top for as long as possible. Yes we would ideally like to be one of the top 2 from right now until the end of the season, but we started badly and are playing catch up.

[VillaChris]

11 hours ago, villa89 said:

It's going to be tight to make it into the playoffs. Very tight. Automatic promotion chances are long gone because of the manager. 

Depends on our next few games. We need a response otherwise we will look flat track bullies and that won't be enough for top 2 or maybe even play offs.

Wolves are cut above at this level. They'll get automatic promotion and probably win the league.

Look at the others though, Cardiff were poor and won't be second. Leeds are faltering after a good start, don't think they have enough goals. Boro for all the hype have been even worse than us.Think they've yet to win an away game.

Preston and Sheffield United dark horses for second. Wouldn't reflect well on us if either nicked second.

All to play for but we need to bounce back quickly.

[Mark Albrighton]

As I’ve had a spare moment, looking at the fixtures up to the season’s halfway mark I reckon we’ll reach around the 40 points total (I’ve tried to be realistic, with an undercurrent of optimism).

Fulham (h) Blues (a) Preston (a)

I think about five points from these three.

Wednesday (h) QPR (a) Sunderland (h) Ipswich (h)

Probably the most optimistic section of my predictions, I reckon maybe ten points here.

Leeds (a) Milwall (h) Derby (a) Sheff Utd (h)

Maybe seven points from these four taking us to the halfway mark.

That would get us to 41 points, 1.78 points per game. Just for reference purposes, Newcastle were on 49 points at the halfway point last season.

[villa82]

15 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said:

As I’ve had a spare moment, looking at the fixtures up to the season’s halfway mark I reckon we’ll reach around the 40 points total (I’ve tried to be realistic, with an undercurrent of optimism).

Fulham (h) Blues (a) Preston (a)

I think about five points from these three.

Wednesday (h) QPR (a) Sunderland (h) Ipswich (h)

Probably the most optimistic section of my predictions, I reckon maybe ten points here.

Leeds (a) Milwall (h) Derby (a) Sheff Utd (h)

Maybe seven points from these four taking us to the halfway mark.

That would get us to 41 points, 1.78 points per game. Just for reference purposes, Newcastle were on 49 points at the halfway point last season.

Very optimistic., only one lost game in the next 11. 

[Mark Albrighton]

1 minute ago, villa82 said:

Very optimistic., only one lost game in the next 11. 

Yeah, I did think that. The sun finally coming out today may have influenced me.

[omariqy]

I'd take playoffs right now. No way we are getting top 2 with Bruce in charge.

[Grasshopper]

14 hours ago, TRO said:

I have been having an indepth conversation this afternoon with a few Blues fans.

sensible ones guys, yes there is some.

we were discussing our last 2 games.its obvious they are happy, i am not.  

Tro, why stoop so low?

14 hours ago, TRO said:

the key point to me is DESIRE and application. 

Alan Hutton?

 

 

[Grasshopper]

15 hours ago, terrytini said:

I’m afraid it’s a little worse than that if we look at the only factual information from Bruces time with us.

He has played 29 times against sides in the Top 15 And secured 8 wins, totalling 32 points at an average of 1.103 points per game/(goal difference -11)

Against sides in the bottom 8 he’s played 18 times and won 12, getting 39 points at an average of 2.16 points per game ( goal difference +16).

Taking a realistic points tally for promotion to be 92 points ( 2 per game over the season) he now needs 2.14 per game.

In other words for the rest of the season he needs to perform as well against ALL clubs as he so far has ( with quite a large sample size of 47 games ) against the Bottom 8 only.

Results against the other 15 have to improve stratospherically.

Terry, you cant come on here with that sort of logic. It goes completely against the grain of why „The Board“ are keeping the status quo.

[DCJonah]

2 hours ago, Shropshire Lad said:

As I’ve had a spare moment, looking at the fixtures up to the season’s halfway mark I reckon we’ll reach around the 40 points total (I’ve tried to be realistic, with an undercurrent of optimism).

Fulham (h) Blues (a) Preston (a)

I think about five points from these three.

Wednesday (h) QPR (a) Sunderland (h) Ipswich (h)

Probably the most optimistic section of my predictions, I reckon maybe ten points here.

Leeds (a) Milwall (h) Derby (a) Sheff Utd (h)

Maybe seven points from these four taking us to the halfway mark.

That would get us to 41 points, 1.78 points per game. Just for reference purposes, Newcastle were on 49 points at the halfway point last season.

If we get that I'll be pretty happy. Can't see it though. 

[dn1982]

We now know we aren't as good as Wolves but there's not much else in this league to be afraid of. The next 4 games will show if we can look at 2nd or we will be lucky to challenge for the playoffs. You have to shrug off defeat in this league and just keep going. We need to go undefeated till the next international break now.  

[TRO]

35 minutes ago, dn1982 said:

We now know we aren't as good as Wolves but there's not much else in this league to be afraid of. The next 4 games will show if we can look at 2nd or we will be lucky to challenge for the playoffs. You have to shrug off defeat in this league and just keep going. We need to go undefeated till the next international break now.  

Not taking anything away from Wolves....but a cold wintery Tuesday night up North .....We will see.

mind you we probably don'y fancy it either.

[VILLAMARV]

On 10/3/2017 at 16:34, VILLAMARV said:

the next 7 rounds of fixtures will show us a lot about Villa, Fulham, Bristol City, Wolves and Preston in particular, lots of games against each other in that sequence as well as games against the likes of Leeds, Sheff Utd and Cardiff for some of them. 5 of the top 10 for Wolves, Preston and Fulham in the next 7 games, 4 of them in store for Bristol City.

Wolves: Aston Villa(W1-0), Preston, QPR [a], Norwich [a] - Fulham, Reading [a], Leeds

Bristol City: Burton (D0-0), Leeds, Sunderland [a], Fulham [a] - Cardiff, Sheff Weds [a], Preston

Preston NE: Fulham [a](D2-2), Wolves [a], Brentford - Aston Villa, Ipswich [a], Bolton, Bristol City [a]

Aston Villa: Wolves [a](L0-2), Fulham, SHA [a] - Preston [a], Sheff Weds, QPR[a], Sunderland

Fulham: Preston(D2-2), Aston Villa [a], Bolton, Bristol City - Wolves [a], Derby, Sheff Utd [a]

The next 4/5 games for us look massive though and I'd agree on us having one of the toughest Octobers on paper.

Big games this weekend all over the place as teams around each other all play each other in some fashion - except Sheff Utd who welcome Reading. In the top half, as the list says it's Villa vs Fulham, Wolves vs Preston, Bristol City vs Leeds, meanwhile for the teams just below us, Cardiff visit Middlesbrough. Ipswich vs Norwich is on Sunday. Derby and Sheff Weds keep up the trend of playing teams around each other this weekend slap bang in mid table. From Forest down (except Reading) all the teams within 5 points of Burton play someone near them too. We cant afford a bad run. Back on the bike quick please boys. Wins against Fulham and SHA before going to Preston would be great.