Dr_Pangloss Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 hours ago, dn1982 said: We now know we aren't as good as Wolves but there's not much else in this league to be afraid of. The next 4 games will show if we can look at 2nd or we will be lucky to challenge for the playoffs. You have to shrug off defeat in this league and just keep going. We need to go undefeated till the next international break now. Bruce very often sets us up as though he's very afraid of something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 (edited) 5 hours ago, Grasshopper said: Tro, why stoop so low? Alan Hutton? We was talking under some scaffolding planks sheltered from the rain Edited October 16, 2017 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted October 16, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 hours ago, DCJonah said: If we get that I'll be pretty happy. Can't see it though. As I would be. A lot will depend on how we respond to this defeat of course. It’s just on the face of it, to me, achieving around 20 points over the next 11 games seems doable. I look at those sides and I don’t find myself feeling too anxious. It won’t be easy, there will be defeats, but then we’ve seen the likes of Fulham, Wednesday, Leeds falter a bit so far. But then of course, they will say the same of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 hours ago, DCJonah said: If we get that I'll be pretty happy. Can't see it though. I can’t see it either and I wouldn’t be happy anyway. 40 points from 23 games means probably 52 needed from the other 23....no chance. We need to win 8 or 9 of our next 11 to even be in with a chance of Top 2. And it’s not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, terrytini said: 40 points from 23 games means probably 52 needed from the other 23....no chance. We need to win 8 or 9 of our next 11 to even be in with a chance of Top 2. And it’s not going to happen. The last 5 years the following points would have seen you finish second ( I can't be asked to go back further) - 78, 86, 87, 89, 86 I think any team that gets 87 points would be unlucky to miss out on automatic promotion. Over the next 11 games I think we an take 22 points. That would put us on 41 leaving around 45/46 from 23 games. With 12 games gone I don't think we are playing to our potential yet. Of course others sides could claim that. I also don't think this league is any great shakes. I am still confident we'll get automatic this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 16, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 16, 2017 Not unless we start performing better against sides in the top half of the table we won’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: The last 5 years the following points would have seen you finish second ( I can't be asked to go back further) - 78, 86, 87, 89, 86 I think any team that gets 87 points would be unlucky to miss out on automatic promotion. Over the next 11 games I think we an take 22 points. That would put us on 41 leaving around 45/46 from 23 games. With 12 games gone I don't think we are playing to our potential yet. Of course others sides could claim that. I also don't think this league is any great shakes. I am still confident we'll get automatic this season. Where do you get that from ? Last year 93, previous two 89, previous 93. The potential bit ? Fine that’s your view - I don’t think we are either but suspect the cause isn’t going to change) but I was just on about the maths. I don’t see it, nowhere near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 minute ago, TrentVilla said: Not unless we start performing better against sides in the top half of the table we won’t. Quite. Not just top half, top 15. Further to my Posts on this yesterday I would make this additional observation. Bruce has played 13 Away games against sides in the Top 15. Won 1 Drawn 2 Lost 10 Scored 5 Conceeded 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 16, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 16, 2017 Just now, terrytini said: Quite. Not just top half, top 15. Further to my Posts on this yesterday I would make this additional observation. Bruce has played 13 Away games against sides in the Top 15. Won 1 Drawn 2 Lost 10 Scored 5 Conceeded 22 Exactly. Which is why a baulk at talk of improvement. I honestly think our good run said more about who we played than it did us or how we played. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, terrytini said: Bruce has played 13 Away games against sides in the Top 15. Won 1 Drawn 2 Lost 10 Scored 5 Conceeded 22 That's embarrassing and what's worse is that he talks about our away form as if it's something he has no control over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, villa89 said: That's embarrassing and what's worse is that he talks about our away form as if it's something he has no control over. Even worse he says he’s concentrated on fixing it !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 (edited) 15 minutes ago, terrytini said: Where do you get that from ? Last year 93, previous two 89, previous 93. The potential bit ? Fine that’s your view - I don’t think we are either but suspect the cause isn’t going to change) but I was just on about the maths. I don’t see it, nowhere near. I looked at the team finishing third and added one point onto their total mate. Reading in third had 85 points last season. We are still a relatively new team. Terry, Elmo, Snodgrass, Whelan, Davis have all started no more than 12 games for us. Kodjia is not yet fully fit or sharp. Then we have one of our better players from last season in Jedinak to come back, Grealish who I think can have a big influence this season, Green who is a great rotation option and could be a real threat off the bench. I think squad wise we have the strongest in the league. Hopefully over this next 11 games we keep ourselves within a handful of points of the top 2, or better, and then look to really kick on from that in the second half of the season. Edited October 16, 2017 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: Exactly. Which is why a baulk at talk of improvement. I honestly think our good run said more about who we played than it did us or how we played. Totally agree. The way we scraped past rock bottom Bolton was an indicator of that and those away stats are absolutely abysmal if true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 22 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: The last 5 years the following points would have seen you finish second ( I can't be asked to go back further) - 78, 86, 87, 89, 86 I think any team that gets 87 points would be unlucky to miss out on automatic promotion. Over the next 11 games I think we an take 22 points. That would put us on 41 leaving around 45/46 from 23 games. With 12 games gone I don't think we are playing to our potential yet. Of course others sides could claim that. I also don't think this league is any great shakes. I am still confident we'll get automatic this season. So to continue... you see my point now ? On your own positivevestimation you think we will be on 41 Points from 23 games. We will need at least 89.....So a team that manages well under 2 points a game by halfway will have to average significantly OVER that for the second half...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: I looked at the team finishing third and added one point onto their total mate. Reading in third had 85 points last season. We are still a relatively new team. Terry, Elmo, Snodgrass, Whelan, Davis have all started no more than 12 games for us. Kodjia is not yet fully fit or sharp. Then we have one of our better players from last season in Jedinak to come back, Grealish who I think can have a big influence this season, Green who is a great rotation option and could be a real threat off the bench. I think squad wise we have the strongest in the league. Hopefully over this next 11 games we keep ourselves within a handful of points of the top 2 or better and then look to really kick on from that in the second half of the season. What ??? The Points totals to finish 2nd are the points totals the teams who finished 2nd got !! You got what is needed for 2nd by adding one to third ? Blimey. That’s novel I’ll give you that Mark. I can’t deny there is s logic to it... but.... Teams that finish 2nd get around 92 Points, year in and out ..., whichever way you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, terrytini said: So to continue... you see my point now ? On your own positivevestimation you think we will be on 41 Points from 23 games. We will need at least 89.....So a team that manages well under 2 points a game by halfway will have to average significantly OVER that for the second half...... Why will we need 89? the average over the last 5 years to finish second is around 86. We get 41 over the first half of the season that is 45 from 23 games needed. I'll be honest mate I am an optimist. I don't consider it blind optimism though as I genuinely don't see anything to fear in this league and I think our performances will improve and along with that we can maintain the 2+ points a game we have over the last half a dozen games. Time will be prove if my optimism is misguided I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 minute ago, terrytini said: What ??? The Points totals to finish 2nd are the points totals the teams who finished 2nd got !! You got what is needed for 2nd by adding one to third ? Blimey. That’s novel I’ll give you that Mark. I can’t deny there is s logic to it... but.... Teams that finish 2nd get around 92 Points, year in and out ..., whichever way you look at it. What? Brighton could have got 86 last season and they would have finished 2nd. If the team that finishes third this season gets 85 points, as they did last season, and we get 86 then we will finish second. I'd have thought that was the most logical way to see what is needed for second. We don't need to do as Brighton did and finish 7 points above third. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 As for the rest yes those are all points people raise.... I’m just on about the maths of how we have done, against who, and so on. Other teams are also relatively new and might improve, other teams have injured players, our form with the people you mention is included in the stats I’ve ysed, they were here last year for those results. You may be right of course on those subjective issues, but I and others could suggest many other subjective issues to counter it ( and for me that’s all been done to death). All I’m doing is looking at what has happened historically with us, and the League. Of course it proves nothing, but - in my opinion - it means promotion is cloud cuckoo land. Hope I am very wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Just now, markavfc40 said: What? Brighton could have got 86 last season and they would have finished 2nd. If the team that finishes third this season gets 85 points, as they did last season, and we get 86 then we will finish second. I'd have thought that was the most logical way to see what is needed for second. We don't need to do as Brighton did and finish 7 points above third. You have no idea what might have happened had Brighton got fewer points. Suppose as just one example the team they dropped them to were the team just below them ? Suppose going into the last day the points difference affected how teams performed. Its just guesswork. The facts are that teams that finish second tend to get 2 points per game. Just like in the Premier League it’s “40 Points” to avoid the drop. You can’t look at the final totals and work backwards!! Well you can if you like. Id have thought if you were that optimistic you be confident of the 92 anyway !!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 16, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: Why will we need 89? the average over the last 5 years to finish second is around 86. We get 41 over the first half of the season that is 45 from 23 games needed. I'll be honest mate I am an optimist. I don't consider it blind optimism though as I genuinely don't see anything to fear in this league and I think our performances will improve and along with that we can maintain the 2+ points a game we have over the last half a dozen games. Time will be prove if my optimism is misguided I guess. Actually, it isn’t 86 it’s 88. Even that is a little false due to the unusually low figure in the 12/13 season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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