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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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28 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Warnock is already unhappy that Derby away is going to be played on April 17th.

Gives them a schedule of:

Sheffield United away

Wolves home

Us away

Norwich away

Derby away

Our only hope is they have a similar run as over xmas and lose four of them which is pretty unlikely. Even then I don't see us being good enough to capitalise. We blew it with QPR and I think we'll be inconsistant rest of the season. Good enough for play offs but don't think we'll even finish third.

To have a slim chance we need to take 20 points from the last 8 and home Cardiff drop 13 points at least . 

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6 minutes ago, Eastie said:

Unlikely we would get Cardiff or Fulham over 2 legs -unless we finish 6th .

Yea thats the only saving grace we avoid those two. I don't fancy playing boro though either. Derby I think we can beat over two legs esp full strength and with fingers crossed big kodj

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44 minutes ago, Eastie said:

To have a slim chance we need to take 20 points from the last 8 and home Cardiff drop 13 points at least . 

Yep we obviously need to beat Cardiff and then feasibly the gap is down to 4 and do-able again. Cardiff can lose other games aswell.

Only problem is we need to win most of ours and I don't see us doing that e.g going to likes of Norwich and Millwall and winning.

Someone mentioned 08-09 and this does feel similar.

Arsenal went past us at this point. I did think back then looking at their fixtures they would lose some games and we could reel them in. I forgot that we could barely win a game at that point. We finished that season winning 2 of our last 8 and finished miles behind Arsenal.

Edited by VillaChris
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2 hours ago, VillaJ100 said:

To have any chance Cardiff have to have a major, major collapse, like losing 4-5 in a row and us beating them, while we win every last game. Theoretically possible but so is a black hole swallowing earth at half 3 this afternoon. Not gonna happen. 

That's like an 18 point swing. We only need 7. They just have to lose to Wolves and one other as well as to us and we just have to match them apart from that. We made up a 7 point gap in Derby in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's nowhere near insurmountable, especially with their fixture list in April.

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3 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Yep we obviously need to beat Cardiff and then feasibly the gap is down to 4 and do-able again. Cardiff can lose other games aswell.

Only problem is we need to win most of ours and I don't see us doing that e.g going to likes of Norwich and Millwall and winning.

Someone mentioned 08-09 and this does feel similar.

Arsenal went past us at this point. I did think back then looking at their fixtures they would lose some games and we could reel them in. I forgot that we could barely win a game at that point. We finished that season winning 2 of our last 8 and finished miles behind Arsenal.

The difference there is the relative quality of Arsenal and Cardiff.

Cariff don’t have anything like the Championship equivalent of Van Persie, Fabregas, Nasri, Gallas, Touré, Clichy and so on.

Edited by a m ole
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If Cardiff had played their game against Derby and won then the gap would be 10 points. If we somehow won every game then we have to hope Cardiff only get 17 points from their 9 games. That's 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. If we only get 7 wins then that means Cardiff only need 14 points which is 4 wins 2 draws and 3 losses. Bruce said we needed 6 wins in our last 8 games to get autos. Assuming we draw one more and lose the other then that is 19 points more. We would be on 88 points. Cardiff could only get 12 points more from their remaining 9 games. That is 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. 

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5 hours ago, a m ole said:

The difference there is the relative quality of Arsenal and Cardiff.

Cariff don’t have anything like the Championship equivalent of Van Persie, Fabregas, Nasri, Gallas, Touré, Clichy and so on.

Yes I know but I was trying to say it was a similar scenario. We don't have the quality of Young, Carew, Milner, Petrov playing for us anymore of course.

It feels like we're out of breath now trying to catch the teams ahead just like that Arsenal season.

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6 hours ago, omariqy said:

If Cardiff had played their game against Derby and won then the gap would be 10 points. If we somehow won every game then we have to hope Cardiff only get 17 points from their 9 games. That's 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. If we only get 7 wins then that means Cardiff only need 14 points which is 4 wins 2 draws and 3 losses. Bruce said we needed 6 wins in our last 8 games to get autos. Assuming we draw one more and lose the other then that is 19 points more. We would be on 88 points. Cardiff could only get 12 points more from their remaining 9 games. That is 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. 

Not going to happen. We need to just get some form and confidence to go in to the places with. 

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8 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Yep we obviously need to beat Cardiff and then feasibly the gap is down to 4 and do-able again. Cardiff can lose other games aswell.

Only problem is we need to win most of ours and I don't see us doing that e.g going to likes of Norwich and Millwall and winning.

Someone mentioned 08-09 and this does feel similar.

Arsenal went past us at this point. I did think back then looking at their fixtures they would lose some games and we could reel them in. I forgot that we could barely win a game at that point. We finished that season winning 2 of our last 8 and finished miles behind Arsenal.

I would say we over achieved for most of that season.6th place was a realistic finish in the end. 

This season automatic promotion was a realistic goal. Which is why it’s so disappointing we are unlikely to make it. 

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16 hours ago, Keyblade said:

That's like an 18 point swing. We only need 7. They just have to lose to Wolves and one other as well as to us and we just have to match them apart from that. We made up a 7 point gap in Derby in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's nowhere near insurmountable, especially with their fixture list in April.

I don’t see us getting as many points as Fulham get on the last 8 games immaterial of Cardiff.

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3 hours ago, Eastie said:

I don’t see us getting as many points as Fulham get on the last 8 games immaterial of Cardiff.

That is the key for me. Even if Cardiff lose a few we have now let Fulham into the race and they have a very winnable 8 games left.

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Making up 8 points in 8 games isn't going to happen, especially when they have a game in hand. It's very unlikely that Fulham can catch them either, but that's probably a good result for us now unless we win out.

 

Fulham barnstorm home,  Cardiff fall in a hole including getting smashed by us in our game, Fulham overtake Cardiff and we get a battered, bruised Cardiff in the playoffs.

 

It's all unlikely though at this stage. We're going to have to beat Fulham to go up.

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Quote

 

EFL ask for observations regarding Derby-Cardiff postponement

Last Updated: 19/03/18 8:34pm

The EFL have asked Derby and Cardiff for their observations regarding the postponement of Sunday's Championship match.

Cardiff boss Neil Warnock has described the Rams' decision to announce that the game had been called off at 8.30 on Sunday morning as "scandalous" and a "disgrace".

Bur Derby say they "fully complied with all the matchday operational regulations surrounding the postponement of the game".

On Sunday morning, Derby announced that the clash had been postponed due to Pride Park and its surrounding areas being unsafe for "supporters, staff and officials".

The postponement infuriated Warnock, whose promotion-chasing side could have climbed back to within three points of Championship leaders Wolves with a victory.

Warnock blasts Derby postponement

Cardiff City boss Neil Warnock calls the decision to cancel Sunday's Championship match at Derby a "disgrace".

Cardiff City boss Neil Warnock calls the decision to cancel Sunday's Championship match at Derby a

He told Sky Sports News: "I think it's a disgrace, quite frankly.

"There's nothing here, the car parks are clear, all the shops are open.

"We've come from the middle of the countryside on the coach and the roads have been perfectly all right, so I just don't know where they're coming from with this. It leaves a sour taste.

"I think it's scandalous."

An English Football League statement said on Sunday that the decision was made "first thing this morning following discussions between Derby County, Derbyshire Police and the local Safety Advisory Group".

But Derbyshire Constabulary have said they were not involved in the club's decision.

Derbyshire police tweeted on Monday: "For clarity, Derby County Football Club took the decision to postpone the match due to the weather conditions and the health and safety of people travelling to the ground.

Cardiff are second in the Championship and chasing automatic promotion

"The club made this decision independently. It was not made by Derbyshire Constabulary."

In response to the police statement, Derby issued a further release insisting they followed the correct procedures.

"We fully complied with all the matchday operational regulations surrounding the postponement of the game," Derby said on Monday afternoon.

"The decision was fully supported by the independent Safety Advisory Group, who are responsible for ensuring that the club complies with the terms and conditions of our Safety Certificate."

An EFL spokesman said: "We are aware of the comments that have been made throughout the course of today in regard to yesterday's postponement between Derby and Cardiff and, having asked both clubs for their observations on the matter on Sunday, will not be making any further comment until the full responses are received."

Cardiff City executive director and CEO, Ken Choo said in a statement on Monday evening: "I completely understand the frustrations of our supporters, particularly those who travelled to Derby this past weekend.

"I share their frustrations and am in dialogue with the EFL to determine exactly why the game was postponed and how that decision was reached.

"We look forward to the EFL's response and will update our supporters in due course."

 

CLICK

One thing I will say about this, Warnock sure would have fired up Derby for this game now. I think Warnocks comments would have infuriated Derby County.

 

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I have just read the last few pages and lots of Mystic Megs posting in here.....with the white flag being frantically waved.

All as i know is yes, we have made things very very difficult with the two losses, but for Cardiff, Fulham and Villa .....it ain't over till the fat lady sings !!!!!!

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Cardiff are capable of hitting a rough patch we know that, with this big derby game crammed in as well they will be playing alot of games in April

But Fulham are more of a threat to them than us. we have harder games and the complete implosion in the last two games as doomed us to the lottery of play offs  

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2 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

We went on a 7 game run after our last bad patch. We can do it again. As they say, it ain't over til the fat lady sings.

we can but its unlikely with derby,, leeds and cardiff to play. slo tough away trip to norwich. mnot gonna happen, we blew it 

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2 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

We went on a 7 game run after our last bad patch. We can do it again. As they say, it ain't over til the fat lady sings.

Sadly I think we fired her under Lerner's cost cutting along with Doris the tea lady and the chocolate digestives so we might be screwed.

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11 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

We went on a 7 game run after our last bad patch. We can do it again. As they say, it ain't over til the fat lady sings.

Yes and we never went 2nd in that time. 

P.S. We did go 2nd at one point but  was it during this run? Why can'y you delete embarassing points on here, such a needed feature :D

Edited by Alakagom
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