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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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This Fulham run isn't going to last forever. If it does, then they more than deserve that 2nd spot. We should be glad that they started to peak in Feb/March rather than May. There's still 2 months of football left to play. Plenty of twists and turns yet. If we play as relatively consistent as we have been, in other words 2 ppg...I think we should be good for that 2nd spot. We just have to beat Cardiff though.

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6 hours ago, NASTY_LEE said:

For all this talk of Fulham's form, they are only 1 point better off over the last 6 games and that includes 3 against us. There's no need to panic yet.

They’ve played nearly all the top 6 in those games though 

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We're easily still in contention for 2nd.

What, in my mind, will determine if we do or don't finish there is our ability to stay focused and consistent. We were top 2 recently.

If we can also perform better than we have against the top end teams, we're in with a good shout.

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3 hours ago, flashingqwerty said:

Taking current league standings as the measure, both Cardiff and Fulham have easier opposition than us in the run in.  The average league standing for our remaining games is 12.3, Cardiff's is 13.3 and Fulham's is 14.7

Suggests to me that we're more likely to be finishing 4th than 2nd as we stand.

Looking at the individual games, i'm expecting 27/36 points leaving us on 90 pts.

I'm expecting 24/36 for Cardiff, leaving them on 91 pts.

And 30/33 for Fulham, leaving them on 92 pts.

I'm sure this isn't how it'll all go down, but its what i think about the games right now.  So i'm less than confident at the moment.

  Means nothing - all about who handles the pressure best from here . 

‘There is no way 90 points would finish 4th .

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2 hours ago, Eastie said:

  Means nothing - all about who handles the pressure best from here . 

‘There is no way 90 points would finish 4th .

The last time 3rd got 90 points was 97/98 - 1st & 2nd got 94 and 91 respectfully.

4th has never got 90 points. I’ve only checked back to 1980/81 season :flag: but that was the last season of 2 points for a win, and I would be very surprised if anyone got 90 previously as it is mathematically impossible!

It over just yet, not by a long shot and it is looking like it is going to the wire. As it stands you are looking at Wolves, Cardiff, Us, and Fulham for the top 4; just not sure what order! 

Incidentally, it does make a nice change though to get to much and to have something positive to play for!

Edited by cyrusr
Added mathematically impossible.
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As said above. Doesnt matter who is playing who.. its about handling the pressure. We got to 2nd and we choked. Lets see how the other teams handle being in that 2nd position. So far Cardiff are not bottling it.. but it is starting to get really serious now. If we win ( i believe we play before them now... ) the pressure will be immense for their next match. Lets see. 

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2 hours ago, cyrusr said:

The last time 3rd got 90 points was 97/98 - 1st & 2nd got 94 and 91 respectfully.

4th has never got 90 points. I’ve only checked back to 1980/81 season :flag: but that was the last season of 2 points for a win, and I would be very surprised if anyone got 90 previously as it is mathematically impossible!

It over just yet, not by a long shot and it is looking like it is going to the wire. As it stands you are looking at Wolves, Cardiff, Us, and Fulham for the top 4; just not sure what order! 

Incidentally, it does make a nice change though to get to much and to have something positive to play for!

After several seasons of panic around how poor we've been it is alien to us when we're looking at the top of the league, causing some degree of collective concern.

What this post highlights is that it is still mathematically very much open and many of those around us have to play each other (and us). 

Let's keep some positivity, we've put ourselves in contention and thanks to the snow will have players back for Tuesday - let Cardiff, Fulham and Derby worry about that!

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5 hours ago, Keyblade said:

This Fulham run isn't going to last forever. If it does, then they more than deserve that 2nd spot. We should be glad that they started to peak in Feb/March rather than May. There's still 2 months of football left to play. Plenty of twists and turns yet. If we play as relatively consistent as we have been, in other words 2 ppg...I think we should be good for that 2nd spot. We just have to beat Cardiff though.

This is "Cardiff will fall away" all over again.:rolleyes:

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41 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

This is "Cardiff will fall away" all over again.:rolleyes:

Has a team ever won something like 18 out of their last 20 games? It's unheard of as far as I know. If they manage to do that, then fair play to them they might even get 1st. But it's very unlikely simply by the law of averages is what I was saying.

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16 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

No chance were going up in the playoffs

Our only chance is top two and i just think Cardiff and Fulham are more likely

I’m sure I heard people saying there was no chance that we’d get into the playoff places before New Year :detect:

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I didn't see anything in the Derby v Fulham game to be afraid of.

Sessegnon, takes up good positions and dispatches the ball very well and along with Mitrovic......just does what he supposed to do well.

When we are on our game, we have players who do that too.

Its down to us to get it right,( albeit injuries to key players have been pants) We control our own destiny in the main. We get on another run and it will all look favourable, its feasible.

 

Edited by TRO
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2 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

This is "Cardiff will fall away" all over again.:rolleyes:

I don't think they will.

Marko Gruic is a powerful addition to them in Midfield and Gary Madine is a big lump up front that adds power to an already powerful outfit.

They are a tough old nut for this league, where silky skills can be easily negated.....Its not like the Prem, where refs will protect the skilful players more readily.

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16 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Fair point but Mitrovic has only started the last 4 games so the outstanding form has started without him. I'm hoping Grabban can be our Mitrovic. 

I think he can....He needs a run of games without interruption.

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1 hour ago, markavfc40 said:

Fulham are on an excellent run but I can't say I am too concerned. Why would I be when my club are also on an excellent run having lost one of their last ten winning eight.

We have a three point cushion over 5th with a game in hand, a one point cushion over 4th with a game in hand and are four points behind 2nd with 12 games to go and one of them against that second placed side at Villa Park where we have lost one league game all season.

With the form we are in, with two of our best attacking threats now back from injury giving us pretty much a fully fit squad I am still supremely confident we will get promotion. We can only control what we do and we have done that very well over the last couple of months. I see no reason why that won't continue. Quite the opposite.

ditto

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8 hours ago, Eastie said:

  Means nothing - all about who handles the pressure best from here . 

‘There is no way 90 points would finish 4th .

I think you are right.

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16 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Fair point but Mitrovic has only started the last 4 games so the outstanding form has started without him. I'm hoping Grabban can be our Mitrovic. 

true, but it has given them that little edge.

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8 hours ago, Eastie said:

They’ve played nearly all the top 6 in those games though 

Our run included thrashing a Bristol team that had just dumped Utd out the cup and Sheff Utd away who were strongly placed. You can only beat what's in front of you. If we played Derby tomorrow I'd be confident of putting them away. 

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