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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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Just now, wazzap24 said:

Don't be concerned. If the 3 all get injured at once, we still have RDL and Jedi to come before anyone has to worry about Elphick and Richards. 

See what I mean though? We have 4 career centre halfs, 2 who could do a job if called upon and errrm, Micah Richards. 

I get people will have opinions on the quality of those players, but we aren't short on numbers and we can't keep buying new players every window! 

It's not the numbers I'm worried about at CB.  It's the fall-off in quality.  If we keep Chester and Terry fit then we're absolutely laughing.  Even using Chester and Samba for let's say 10 of those games.  No problem.

But given the amount of football Terry & particularly Samba have played, it's not really that bold a prediction to think at least one and maybe 2 of them will be missing every now and then.  And all of that assumes Chester remains bulletproof.  I don't want Richards or Elphick near that side.

I'm not a fan of square pegs in round holes (fnarr fnarr).  Re-purposing the likes of Jedinak, to me, should be a last resort stuff.  Ritchie de Laet ... well let's just say he has so far been less than reliable fitness-wise.

Had we gone into the season with Baker at number 3 or 4 (and Samba as the other) then I'd have no qualms at all, because I believe we will have a lot of use for a 4th CB this season.  As it is right now though I'd be a teency little bit nervous.

If we were to be unlucky given the ages involved, then we might find ourselves very light at first choice position in an area we were previously very good in.

So while we have 7 potential CBs (JC, JT, CS, MJ, RdL, MR, TE) there's only 3 I'd use in the first team to any degree.  I'd rather have only 4 (JC, JT, CS, NB) and be confident in them all - and then pad that with the likes of Clark & Suliman.

But we are where we are.  Not a big gripe.  Just as I said, a concern :)

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It basically comes down to luck really @BOF doesn't it? For all we go on about tactics, formations and styles of play, ultimately if you can keep your 'best' players fit and a decent handful of them find some form, we'll be fine. If we lose key players in any area, things are going to be tough. 

I maintain that with this squad, we have more options in most areas, than the majority of our opposition this season and hopefully that will see us right. If any one particular area is decimated by injury, there ain't much you can do. 

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Just now, wazzap24 said:

It basically come down to luck really @BOF doesn't it? For all we go on about tactics, formations and styles of play, ultimately if you can keep your 'best' players fit and a decent handful of them find some form, we'll be fine. If we lose key players in any area, things are going to be tough. 

I maintain that with this squad, we have more options in most areas, than the majority of our opposition this season and hopefully that will see us right. If any one particular area is decimated by injury, there ain't much you can do. 

Oh absolutely, luck plays a huge role and you try to limit it by being clever with your training regime.  I think we'll be fine.  I hope so anyway.  But to boil my post down to a single line.  One injury at CB and we've likely no subs (*that I'd be willing to use). But I don't want to labour the point :D  It was only a concern that popped up elsewhere that I wanted to raise my hand to :thumb:

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3 hours ago, hippo said:

I think going with Hogan as our number 2 goalscorer is a massive gamble. 

The rest of you post are the consequences of that gamble. The question is will he score enough goals to get us promoted ? You seem to be thinking he will - where as I don't.

By that logic, there are about 7 players we need to replace before the Hull game. Bruce needs to get his skates on, let's hope the Dr is willing to get the chequebook out.

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10 hours ago, hippo said:

kodjia is currently recovering from a serious injury. Hogan has looked mostly poor since joining us, RHM is only just back from Injury  and like the other two is untested at this level.

We struggled for goals last year - a fully fit kjoidia has proved he can get goals for us - the others all have pretty big question marks for me. - Id welcome another striker to be honest.

The reason we struggled for goals was the service and the defensive mentality of the team. If we play on the front foot we have the creative players and if we create Hogan will score. Whelan will enable 2 in midfield. Jedinak was good last year but only in a 3 so we lost an attacking option. We have the players Bruce needs to get them playing. I don't think we need another striker but we could do with another attacker. A no 10 who scores would be ideal. We scored 47 last year we need at least another 30 this year. 

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We have maintained our goalkeeping situation so should see a marginal improvement due to stability.

We have improved our defensive first XI but this area wasn't a problem.

We have hopefully improved our midfield engine with Whelan but still lack creativity/width.

We have not made any improvements to our attacking threat.

So in summary, with a little less than a week to go before kick-off, we're better but I doubt better enough to jump from 13th to Champions. I'd say we're currently in the playoff scrap, and probably at the lower end of that. We will concede even less, but this will not gain us enough points to get promotion as the goals simply aren't in this team/setup. It's asking a lot to keep scraping 1-0 wins. Left side midfield is a big concern as neither Grealish (injury/application) or Green (consistency/experience) have shown anything. Right side is similar as Adomah (injury/consistency) or Elmo don't inspire confidence of being overly reliable over an entire season. Attack is still largely Kodjia or no-one.

Happy to see the back of another few players (inc, but not limited to, Gardner, Elphick, Richards, Bacuna, McCormack, Bunn) but think we're at least 1, possibly 2, players short of a promotion winning squad, never mind a Championship winning one.

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6 hours ago, BOF said:

 

I'm not a fan of square pegs in round holes (fnarr fnarr).  Re-purposing the likes of Jedinak, to me, should be a last resort stuff.  Ritchie de Laet ... well let's just say he has so far been less than reliable fitness-wise.

 

I think it's a natural progression for Jedinak. He looked good there last season, typical Jedinak. I'm not sure if you would have caught those games tbf. 

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Jedinak looked good as CB when he played there, it's supposed to be a natural part of De Laet's game isn't it? Thought he could play all across the back line? Selling Baker was poor IMO. I agree though our first XI defence is better than last year. The midfield in theory as DDID says is a big improvement, but we are yet to see anything like a convincing display from the midfield and forwards. We still appear to be allergic to the ball.

I don't think we have the all conquering squad some think we do, we should be good enough for the play offs though. My worry is the continuing lack of looking like a cohesive unit, passing and movement is still very poor IMO and if we want to be part of the race to win the league we need to sort that out sharpish.

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5th best defence in league last year. The way we set up, we are never going to concede many. 

4th WORST goalscorers in league last year. Only the three relegated teams plus Blues were worse than us. Now looking at the players available to Bruce....that is a very....very worrying stat. Does anybody honestly see that situation improving to the tune of the required extra 30 odd goals we will need this season? Where on earth are those goals coming from?

Kodija and Hogan both capable of getting 20 goals individually. However on last years evidence, if they play together they won't get anywhere near that.

To even get competitive around the top 6 Steve Bruce has to completely change the mentality and approach of the team. The signings he has made and the evidence seen in preseason games do not suggest he is looking to do that.

We will not win enough games by playing cautious football. The evidence is there, just look at the teams that have gone up over recent seasons....they play attacking football and are generally full of youthful, energetic players. They will generally have a 25 goal + striker and a midfield that contributes another 20 odd goals.

How many goals do you see our midfield getting when forced to play so deep?

We have a pretty tough start to the season in my opinion, and the fact Wyness has already heaped the pressure on Bruce regarding promotion this season won't help. It also means that we have to be up and around those top spots from the get go. Last season proved yet again that its very tough to make up ground in the championship. You need to be in the mix all season. It took an average of 1.75 points per game to reaach the play offs last season, so with that in mind if we are not sitting on around 17/18 points by the time Bolton come to Villa Park on 30 September, than I think Bruce will be sacked.

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4 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Get voting people on skysports they have a vote who is going up and we are currently lying 8th! Derby, Fulham and Wolves all above us currently! 

Its what we do on the pitch that counts, not rustling up a few votes:)

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7 hours ago, ViewFromT2 said:

5th best defence in league last year. The way we set up, we are never going to concede many. 

4th WORST goalscorers in league last year. Only the three relegated teams plus Blues were worse than us. Now looking at the players available to Bruce....that is a very....very worrying stat. Does anybody honestly see that situation improving to the tune of the required extra 30 odd goals we will need this season? Where on earth are those goals coming from?

Kodija and Hogan both capable of getting 20 goals individually. However on last years evidence, if they play together they won't get anywhere near that.

To even get competitive around the top 6 Steve Bruce has to completely change the mentality and approach of the team. The signings he has made and the evidence seen in preseason games do not suggest he is looking to do that.

We will not win enough games by playing cautious football. The evidence is there, just look at the teams that have gone up over recent seasons....they play attacking football and are generally full of youthful, energetic players. They will generally have a 25 goal + striker and a midfield that contributes another 20 odd goals.

How many goals do you see our midfield getting when forced to play so deep?

We have a pretty tough start to the season in my opinion, and the fact Wyness has already heaped the pressure on Bruce regarding promotion this season won't help. It also means that we have to be up and around those top spots from the get go. Last season proved yet again that its very tough to make up ground in the championship. You need to be in the mix all season. It took an average of 1.75 points per game to reaach the play offs last season, so with that in mind if we are not sitting on around 17/18 points by the time Bolton come to Villa Park on 30 September, than I think Bruce will be sacked.

I agree 

We need goals and different options of creating chances.  I just cannot see this team scoring over 70 this season. 

We have not strengthened our attacking department. 

We will have the best defence. But scoring wins games.

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52 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Just want the season to start now. Will be a tough game though. They showed a lot of improvement near the end of last season.

....all 46 of em!

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11 hours ago, poitier said:

1-0 to the Villa.

Yep - I don't want to be a prophet of doom - but that villa side - which ever 11 you set up, doesn't look full of goals. Id be happy with a 1-0 win - but fear a 0-0 draw

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