Popular Post markavfc40 Posted December 28, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted December 28, 2016 (edited) 18 minutes ago, alreadyexists said: It's quite exciting really isn't it? All this not knowing what will happen. It is but I got to be honest I am pretty relaxed about us making the play offs. I always felt that the first goal was that we needed to be within five points of them by the end of January and I think we are spot on for that. There is nothing to fear in this league. We haven’t played great under Bruce but we have taken two points a game. I think there is room for a fair bit of improvement in our performances and when that comes I expect the points per game to improve. Of the teams above us we have beaten Fulham and Reading, drew with Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield, Barnsley and Derby and lost to Leeds and Sheff Wednesday. We have six of the nine teams above us to play at home where we are arguably the strongest team in this division. Also give us a sniff at promotion and a packed Villa Park will become more of a norm in the run in. After years of doom and gloom and struggle it is fantastic to have something positive to play for. Bring it on I say. Edited December 28, 2016 by markavfc40 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 28, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ask (sort of) and ye shall receive... So of the 27 teams that have made the playoffs over the last 20 years having been outside them after round 23, they have gained a total of 5.41 places. Excuse the 90's formatting, I'm genuinely shite with Excel. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Worth noting that only 4 have them have been promoted, so the 'finishing strong' thing is a bit of a myth, perhaps. Mind, none of this takes into account how many teams have dropped out of the top 6 after round 23 only to surge back up the table again. Ain't nobody got the time for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Ask (sort of) and ye shall receive... So of the 27 teams that have made the playoffs over the last 20 years having been outside them after round 23, they have gained a total of 5.41 places. Excuse the 90's formatting, I'm genuinely shite with Excel. Great stuff! (when do you go back to work?) i took 2 weeks off over Xmas/NY then I'll be working 1 or 2 days a week till mid March to build my strength back up - hence my post quantity over quality The only thing that worries me is that of the last 6 seasons only Norwich ended up in PL and then couldnt hack it. But we are Aston Villa, so with Bruce, there's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 28, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 28, 2016 14 times in 20 years a team 10th or lower after 23 games has made the play-offs - so a 70% chance of it happening to a team this season. You could probably go down to about Ipswich from the current table and say they have a chance, so us and another 6 teams. so maybe a 10% overall chance, statistically, of it happening and the team in question being Villa. I'd rate our chances as about 25% of getting into the play offs. The form of all the teams above us is at least as good, or better than ours over the last 5 games. We have the possible advantage of being able to spend more and be more attractive in January, but against that we also lose key players for several weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted December 28, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted December 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: It is but I got to be honest I am pretty relaxed about us making the play offs. I always felt that the first goal was that we needed to be within five points of them by the end of January and I think we are spot on for that. There is nothing to fear in this league. We haven’t played great under Bruce but we have taken two points a game. I think there is room for a fair bit of improvement in our performances and when that comes I expect the points per game to improve. Of the teams above us we have beaten Fulham and Reading, drew with Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield, Barnsley and Derby and lost to Leeds and Sheff Wednesday. We have six of the nine teams above us to play at home where we are arguably the strongest team in this division. Also give us a sniff at promotion and a packed Villa Park will become more of a norm in the run in. After years of doom and gloom and struggle it is fantastic to have something positive to play for. Bring it on I say. I agree Mark, very eloquently put. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, blandy said: 14 times in 20 years a team 10th or lower after 23 games has made the play-offs - so a 70% chance of it happening to a team this season. You could probably go down to about Ipswich from the current table and say they have a chance, so us and another 6 teams. so maybe a 10% overall chance, statistically, of it happening and the team in question being Villa. I'd rate our chances as about 25% of getting into the play offs. The form of all the teams above us is at least as good, or better than ours over the last 5 games. We have the possible advantage of being able to spend more and be more attractive in January, but against that we also lose key players for several weeks. I agree in principle (with your 25% chance figure) but I think the 10th place thing is a bit of a misnomer. Barnsley and Fulham are within tickling distance, it's Derby that are the biggest worry. If their form continues, we have to hope that two of us can nip in from the cold which has only happened 6 times in the last 20 years (there were 3 in 06/07). The beauty of this is, a win on Thursday and we could be 8th and only 3 points back. At which point we're looking at a whole new set of data, nobody is questioning our validity anymore. Lose and we could drop to 13th, be 9 points off and basically pissing in the wind hoping for a miracle. Until the next game that is, when it might all change again. Stats are only a snapshot, something to pass the time. They can't really predict anything. We might win 10 in a row and do a Sunderland, you never know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, Grasshopper said: Great stuff! (when do you go back to work?) Next Wednesday, so you can all breath a sigh of relief then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 28, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted December 28, 2016 30 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: Bring it on I say. 5 words is all it took to sum up how I'm feeling. Bring on Thursday. Bring on Cardiff. Bring all the bastards on. I'm tired of being downbeat, looking over our shoulder, worrying about what might or might not be. Let's take this thing on head first, as a team. Owner, manager, players and fans alike. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I think for my own sanity I need to forget what other teams are doing. Bruce averages 2 points a game. If we continue that we will get 80 points. That's been enough for a top 5 finish the past 6 years ( might be more, can't be arsed to look) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 No doubt its all in the balance and the margins are tight and the performances hardly inspire confidence but we are 9 points off 3rd place and it's Xmas. That's a good thing from where we were after the Preston game. There's also a lot of football to be played yet. It's also probably quite a sad indication of the quality of teams in the Championship overall. But none of the teams from 3-9th should be feared any more than they would us. Brighton and Newcastle are hardly unbeatable. Jonah is right though, just get our own house in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Next Wednesday, so you can all breath a sigh of relief then! no I'm lovin it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted December 28, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted December 28, 2016 (edited) The only really certainty is that any outcome is uncertain at the moment. Some are more likely than others, but you'll drive yourself mad trying to think of every permutation. Promotion is still possible, so let's just enjoy the ride! Edited December 28, 2016 by alreadyexists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted December 28, 2016 Moderator Share Posted December 28, 2016 On 08/11/2016 at 19:12, OutByEaster? said: We're unbeaten at home so far this season in nine games. That's the longest unbeaten home start to a season in 26 years, in fact, since 1990 in a run that included Inter Milan on the way to a seventeen game unbeaten home start. Up to 11 games with Leeds a big threat to that run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 55 minutes ago, DCJonah said: I think for my own sanity I need to forget what other teams are doing. Bruce averages 2 points a game. If we continue that we will get 80 points. That's been enough for a top 5 finish the past 6 years ( might be more, can't be arsed to look) This is Villa, it will be 80.0000129 this year. Watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Ask (sort of) and ye shall receive... So of the 27 teams that have made the playoffs over the last 20 years having been outside them after round 23, they have gained a total of 5.41 places. Excuse the 90's formatting, I'm genuinely shite with Excel. Great work! Really interesting to see. I think we should get play-offs, fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jareth Posted December 28, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Ask (sort of) and ye shall receive... So of the 27 teams that have made the playoffs over the last 20 years having been outside them after round 23, they have gained a total of 5.41 places. Excuse the 90's formatting, I'm genuinely shite with Excel. All that work when us getting play-offs is clearly 50/50. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don_Simon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We aren't going up this year. They're too weak willed, lacking basic passing and moving ability, don't take chances and can't defend for 90 minutes. It's villa of old, glossed over with the occasional piece of individual magic. (I like the Championship, so I'm okay with another year here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reivax_Villa Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 (edited) Our club and squad still need rebuilding. I do think we have individual quality however we lack quality as a team to get promoted. Another year in the Championship is looking likely. Despite the great job Steve Bruce is doing, he will need another season to turn this around. The harsh reality is that we are a top half Championship football club. Edited December 29, 2016 by Reivax_Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 there is no team cohesion just a bunch of individuals , Jan probably isn't the time for a clear out but it would be a good start I don't see Swansea , Sunderland and Hull being a threat to us for promotion next season and hopefully we won't give the others a 12 point head start either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts