Popular Post ml1dch Posted October 24, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted October 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: tbh I don't really know what anyone is arguing any more , so I think your penny is safe does this guy earn me a (virtual) penny ? he's not actually arguing more stringent checks but he is suggesting it would raise the levels on US imports Definitely not. He's basically saying "the UK doesn't have to lower it's standards, the USA could just improve theirs if they want to take advantage of this potential new market" Which doesn't really take into account that the reason they are not taking advantage of the whole EU market at the moment is that they don't want to improve their standards. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 What next guys? A blue R for 'remainer' tattooed on our arms? A blue badge with yellow stars? All university heads should be either saying 'no' or 'why?'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said: This is horrific. "Are you against Brexit? Do you think it won't be a success? SABOTEUR!!!" Brexit only leads the way for more authoritarianism and we're **** sleepwalking into it. You won't find many economists who view Brexit through a positive lens. Only a minority of crackpots and idiots do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 24, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said: You won't find many economists who view Brexit through a positive lens. Only a minority of crackpots and idiots do. Prof Patrick Minford... oh yes I see your point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, darrenm said: This is terrifying Edited October 24, 2017 by snowychap 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, bickster said: Prof Patrick Minford... oh yes I see your point Quote Only economic study showing benefits of Brexit debunked as 'doubly misleading' The sole economic modelling exercise showing material benefits for the UK from Brexit has been debunked as “doubly misleading”, further demolishing the argument that for Britain “no deal would be better than a bad deal” when it comes to the EU. Work by the “Economists for Brexit” group, led by Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School, before last year’s referendum suggested that if the UK left the EU without a trade deal and unilaterally dropped all tariff barriers on imports the country’s GDP could be boosted by 4 per cent relative to otherwise...... ....But Professor Alan Winters, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, on Wednesday pointed out that the modelling assumptions that produced the Economists for Brexit headline figure were suspect. The small print of the modelling reveals the assumption that "general international pressure" over the next decade will compel the EU to reduce its own effective tariffs on imports from 20 per cent to 10 per cent - and that the authors ignore the impact of differences in EU safety and quality standards for goods on producer prices. Professor Winters also points out that the modelling of Minford’s group bizarrely assumes the EU will waive its standards on goods imports from the UK post-Brexit, which implies precisely the sort of deep trade deal which the Economists for Brexit have been consistently arguing that the UK does not need to bother pursuing. “Gaining 4 per cent [of GDP] requires more integration with Europe than the UK has at present!” Professor Winters wrote in a blog post. “The term ‘unilateral free trade’ is thus doubly misleading: first, it presumes agreements with reciprocal liberalisations with the UK’s trading partners, including the EU, and second, on the EU, it is just plain wrong,” he said. "Unless the UK and EU sign an FTA [Free Trade Agreement] that explicitly removes all EU non-tariff barriers to exports from the UK, WTO rules prevent the EU from eliminating barriers on the UK alone. If achieved, eliminating all tariffs and non-tariff barriers between the UK and the EU would imply deeper integration than the EU Customs Union and Single Market currently deliver, but coupled with a race to the bottom on standards!" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexiteers-economists-for-brexit-patrick-minford-study-doubly-misleading-eu-uk-trade-deal-tariff-a7691271.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 24, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: does this guy earn me a (virtual) penny ? he's not actually arguing more stringent checks but he is suggesting it would raise the levels on US imports Quote No. I know everyone has "had enough of experts", but I've just got a teensy feeling that a "top global financier" might not be the best authority on food safety. His argument is thin, anyway, whatever his "expertise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 24, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 24, 2017 Argument being thin is kind. His argument is **** moronic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 4 hours ago, Genie said: I voted remain but it’s obvious the EU has outgrown itself. Tariff free trade and free movement, great. All the other shit, the laws, the red tape, the enormous amounts of money paid in being hoovered up by an unnecessary group of politicians. No thanks. It's one of those binary choices where both options are crap. I can't help feeling that a serious politician, some good time ago, should have got together a coalition of willing countries to put the EU on a different path. It feels like there was half an opportunity with the hobbyist millionaire PM Cameron. Had he been a serious politician and not just filling time, he could have used his jaunt to Brussels to bring back allies for a reform. Not just a bit of paper with nothing very much written on it. As much as I don't want Brexit and a country lead by the inspirational free thinkers Fox, Johnson and Redwood, I also don't want an all consuming US of E. I don't want an EU that wants it's own army, but thinks fascist police brutality and the taking of political prisoners in Catalonia are anything but a small internal affairs matter. They want budget for stealth warplanes, but no right to democracy for EU citizens? **** me that's as awful as it gets. Yes, to free trade zones and common standards for working conditions and food safety etc.. Not so sure free movement in it's current guise is a great plan. Any Russian or Libyan with enough money and enough muscle can get a Maltese passport and come to live or work in the UK? No, not good. People can move freely between countries but not automatically get jobs and benefits? Yes, perfectly good idea. I voted remain, and due to the way Brexit is being 'organised' and our awful lame duck PM, I still would. But there's a lot wrong with the EU. I suspect that if we did turn tail and ask to get back in now, we'd have even less sway than before. It would be a poor move to go back, tail between our collective legs. Unfortunately, it's also a poor move to carry on down this disorganised party political brexit. As for the money being paid in to the EU, there are plenty of regions of the UK that will suffer through less investment than they get from the EU, once Westminster is in charge of the £350 million a week. Now admittedly, that reduced budget might actually be spent on jobs and not conceptual art installations. I suspect it will be spent tarting up the Palace of Westminster, Buckingham Palace, Downing Street and subbing tax cuts to global business and millionaires, to encourage trickle down economics, old boy. Yeah, we've voluntarily put a game in play where both possible outcomes are crap. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 You're not allowed nuance. You're only allowed to think in 1s or 0s in relation to brexit 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: Yeah, we've voluntarily put a game in play where both possible outcomes are crap. we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 24, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted October 24, 2017 5 hours ago, chrisp65 said: People can move freely between countries but not automatically get jobs and benefits? Yes, perfectly good idea. Just on that, as I understand it the complete free movement thing that the UK currently allows - we don't have to under the EU rules, we just choose to. The EU allows for the free movement of Labour - there's the ability to stop people without jobs staying - I think it's something like 4 months limit. It wouldn't be much of a tweak to have gently addressed this to make it slightly more strict of whatever and kind of killed the whole immigration "argument" for Brexit dead. But as you say, no one's made any effort, really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 20 minutes ago, blandy said: Just on that, as I understand it the complete free movement thing that the UK currently allows - we don't have to under the EU rules, we just choose to. The EU allows for the free movement of Labour - there's the ability to stop people without jobs staying - I think it's something like 4 months limit. By all accounts we decided that it would be too expensive to bother having a department to administer who had a job and who didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 25, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 25, 2017 (edited) Had a Brexit/UK economy seminar earlier. Usual stuff, there's no economic upside, the options are various choices of bad, their current bet is a limited trade deal ala CETA because an extended one would mean the UK has to cross apparent red lines... But a CETA deal is also a bad deal. There was a Q&A session at the end which had the question 'is there any economic study showing a positive outcome to Brexit?' which made me laugh - the answer was initially an embarrassed chuckle and 'No'*. * I can hear the whirring of googling for frantic gotchas on this, I should say this is paraphrased and actually was a more nuanced question. Edited October 25, 2017 by Chindie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 David Davis in front of the Select Committee this morning: "Czechoslovakia doesn't currently have a Government..." I suppose he's sort of correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 in absentia for 28 years, et non habent loca! Nothing get's past our british bulldog negotiator. If he only he could fashion up a few more patriotic economists / researchers / historians/ professional journalists / farmers / business owners / students / lecturers / cars / cheese / Kitchener paintings we'll be fine. nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 25, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, ml1dch said: David Davis in front of the Select Committee this morning: "Czechoslovakia doesn't currently have a Government..." I suppose he's sort of correct. Complete buffoon. Doesn't have the first idea what he's doing, beyond allegedly what Tate and Lyle would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Rodders said: in absentia for 28 years, et non habent loca! Nothing get's past our british bulldog negotiator. If he only he could fashion up a few more patriotic economists / researchers / historians/ professional journalists / farmers / business owners / students / lecturers / cars / cheese / Kitchener paintings we'll be fine. nothing to worry about. Edit : oh look an eagle Edited October 25, 2017 by tonyh29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: <nothing to see here> Edit: OK - you edited, I will too. Edited October 25, 2017 by bobzy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, bobzy said: Edit: OK - you edited, I will too. It’s a grey area so I thought best not do a Davis and removed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted October 25, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: It’s a grey area so I thought best not do a Davis and removed it It IS a grey area. Either way, as a politician, referring to a country that has been defunct for a generation is a notable cock-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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