The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[HanoiVillan]

Nor was the stated purpose of the court challenge to delay the triggering of article 50. 

[snowychap]

Looks like Fillon's goose may be cooked.

[tonyh29]

28 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Looks like Fillon's goose may be cooked.

Seems unlikely they could hold a new primary so could go to Juppe but there is even talk of Sarkozy

[TrentVilla]

17 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I think you are correct,  no way back now no matter what happens.  

I don't know how a party actually dies but it cannot be far away.

 

Think it's when the fat lady sings, right now Diane Abbott is clearing her throat.... (add your own Corbyn joke here)

[Chindie]

The Brexit White Paper is, unsurprisingly, a bit rubbish it seems. It was finished at 4am, it has an error in it that suggests we get 14 weeks holiday a year... It also apparently contains very little actual hard content, it's supposedly just the wishlist with minor elaboration...

[PieFacE]

10 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The Brexit White Paper is, unsurprisingly, a bit rubbish it seems. It was finished at 4am, it has an error in it that suggests we get 14 weeks holiday a year... It also apparently contains very little actual hard content, it's supposedly just the wishlist with minor elaboration...

I would have voted out if I knew this earlier... 

[HanoiVillan]

This is why I don't watch Question Time (or read the Mail very often, for that matter):

That woman cancelled out my vote 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

Good article here regarding Gert Wilders and the upcoming Dutch elections.

Here..

It won't matter what the EU think they can threaten the UK with,  if he wins it will crumble to nothing.  

Make no mistake,  he can win and the middle class arw now joing him.

I don't know what is going on as  a year ago I would have said no chance but we could have a problem here.

[V01]

Not cool man, you need to warn people if you're linking to the Mail. 

[snowychap]

2 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Good article here regarding Gert Wilders and the upcoming Dutch elections.

Here..

From that piece in the Mail:

Quote

Yet next month there are national elections in the Netherlands — and Wilders's Freedom Party is ahead in the polls and expected to win at least 20 per cent of the vote. It could be even higher.

...

For a groundswell of support for Wilders among the Dutch — his is the most popular party in the Netherlands — is fast gathering momentum.

...

But one thing is certain: if Wilders wins the election but cannot take power, it will surely enrage those Dutch people who — rightly or wrongly — believe they have no one else to turn to.

20% or 'even higher' for Wilders and then you add in the support from the potential kingmaker bloke from Forum for Democracy and that amounts to enough to be a serious danger of deciding a very different path for the Netherlands.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, V01 said:

Not cool man, you need to warn people if you're linking to the Mail. 

Sorry mate,  it was very early.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

45 minutes ago, snowychap said:

20% or 'even higher' for Wilders and then you add in the support from the potential kingmaker bloke from Forum for Democracy and that amounts to enough to be a serious danger of deciding a very different path for the Netherlands.

Imagine if there is an attack in Europe just before the election,  could get more than 20 %.  A lot of people I have spoken to will vote for him.

Not sure where that would leave me but let's see.  It seems a bit different from the UK in that whereas in the UK immigrants set up business's (I am thinking Polish / Pakistani / Indian as good examples) and all the power to them for that.  In NL a lot of immigrants have never and will never work on purpose.  My Son in law has never worked in his life and he is 36 (Turkish).  For that observation I have to say he (Wilders) is correct which is a worry.

[Awol]

3 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Good article here regarding Gert Wilders and the upcoming Dutch elections....

That's basically the scenario we discussed on here the other day, GW wins but can't govern.

As someone who knows the country well I'd be interested in your take on this interview with Douglas Murray the other day?

EDIT: there was an attempted attack yesterday  in Paris by an Egyptian. Fortunately he tried to take on armed French soldiers with a machete with predictable results. 

Doesn't make much difference in Holland but it keeps things ticking in France for Le Penn.

Edited February 4, 2017 by Awol

[snowychap]

57 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Imagine if there is an attack in Europe just before the election,  could get more than 20 %.  A lot of people I have spoken to will vote for him.

Maybe but my point is that it would still appear to be a minority of people.

There's a long way between a lot more than 20% and even a simple majority - that's before one gets in to a discussion about the issues with a narrow, simple majority having the moral/political authority to make such momentous decisions.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Maybe but my point is that it would still appear to be a minority of people.

There's a long way between a lot more than 20% and even a simple majority - that's before one gets in to a discussion about the issues with a narrow, simple majority having the moral/political authority to make such momentous decisions.

I am no sure there is a majority in the Dutch parliament anyway but it's like the Brexit and Trump votes,  anything can happen currently it seems so for those reasons you can see why I am a little concerned ? .  

[StefanAVFC]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38762034

Quote

The BBC has obtained a more localised breakdown of votes from nearly half of the local authorities which counted EU referendum ballots last June.

This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted. The key findings are:

• The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters - populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards)
• The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census
• The age of voters was also important, with older electorates more likely to choose Leave
• Ethnicity was crucial in some places, with ethnic minority areas generally more likely to back Remain. However this varied, and in parts of London some Asian populations were more likely to support Leave
• The combination of education, age and ethnicity accounts for the large majority of the variation in votes between different places
• Across the country and in many council districts we can point out stark contrasts between localities which most favoured Leave or Remain
• There was a broad pattern in several urban areas of deprived, predominantly white, housing estates towards the urban periphery voting Leave, while inner cities with high numbers of ethnic minorities and/or students voted Remain
• Around 270 locations can be identified where the local outcome was in the opposite direction to the broader official counting area, including parts of Scotland which backed Leave and a Cornwall constituency which voted Remain
• Postal voters appear narrowly more likely to have backed Remain than those who voted in a polling station

 

[Chindie]

^Birmingham released the ward details quite a while ago, I'm surprised it's taken so long for others to follow suit (or as the article says, been loathe to release at all until the Beeb pestered them enough).

Interesting read though. Not a shock in it's findings. If your area is white, older and poor, you're surrounded by Leavers in god's waiting room.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

Interesting read though. Not a shock in it's findings. If your area is white, older and poor, you're surrounded by Leavers in god's waiting room.

that's one view , I just took it as another example that a degree in media studies doesn't equip you for the real world 

but , seriously , it's quite interesting  .. I guess looking at the data from and the over whelming Yes vote in 1975 , you have to ask , What made these people all change their mind the next time they got the vote ?

 

 

[blandy]

3 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

, it's quite interesting  .. I guess looking at the data from and the over whelming Yes vote in 1975 , you have to ask , What made these people all change their mind the next time they got the vote ?

Not saying you are, cus you're not, but it would be easy for someone to look at the BBC thing and go "ah, the thickies voted leave, that's because they're thick, and that proves it". But that would be thick.

There's probably a correlation between educational level and the type of job/non-job people have. People with fewer qualifications may be more likely to be in lower paid or unskilled work which has (in their view) had wages held down by immigration, or maybe they feel that being poor already they've nothing to lose by voting leave?

According to various bits of analysis I've seen the UK went from being "the sick man of Yurp" to one of the more prosperous economies in Yurp through joining the Yurpeen union. But they also show that in recent times the vast vast amount of the growth an benefit to the economy has gone to the rich and the south.

So maybe your question is answered by "growing inequality & political disenchantment, disconnection and corruption," or to summarise it more briefly

"Thatcher's fault - she started it"

[Chindie]

17 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

that's one view , I just took it as another example that a degree in media studies doesn't equip you for the real world 

but , seriously , it's quite interesting  .. I guess looking at the data from and the over whelming Yes vote in 1975 , you have to ask , What made these people all change their mind the next time they got the vote ?

 

 

Years and years and years of shit media coverage, lies, and intangible benefits. And change in the shape of foreigners (surreptitiously implied to be brown Quran readers or job stealing scrounging Eastern European pimps and gangster plumbers).

And the British supremacy thing.