The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Chindie]

I'm reminded that some believed Remain voters here were hoping for Britain to suffer in Brexit. Perhaps some Leavers are willing the EU to fail.

It's also rarely a good idea to provide financial advice that might cause someone to have a financial loss. In the UK you can be sued for it, whether you were paid for that advice or not.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

5 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I'm reminded that some believed Remain voters here were hoping for Britain to suffer in Brexit. Perhaps some Leavers are willing the EU to fail.

It's also rarely a good idea to provide financial advice that might cause someone to have a financial loss. In the UK you can be sued for it, whether you were paid for that advice or not.

That seem's good advice.  I am trying to split money up where possible to different places as it goes.  

If the Nonceomatic Wilders wins in Holland then I could be in trouble but I can get by with Dutch language so I got that going for me :-)

[Awol]

35 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I'm reminded that some believed Remain voters here were hoping for Britain to suffer in Brexit. Perhaps some Leavers are willing the EU to fail.

It's also rarely a good idea to provide financial advice that might cause someone to have a financial loss. In the UK you can be sued for it, whether you were paid for that advice or not.

I wanted us out of the EU precisely because the Euro is inevitably going to fail for structural reasons.

The entire EU banking sector is a house of cards, they all own each others debt and once a country decides to leave the currency union (probably Italy if the 5 Star movement gets in) it will set off a chain reaction across the continent.

They will have no choice but to nationalize the lot and the Cypriot bail in scheme will have to be repeated. The governments cannot print their own currencies to do it themselves because the ECB is Germany and Germany won't allow QE to the tune of trillions of Euros.

Eventually a country will have to leave because they cannot sustain crushing debt, zero growth and 40% youth unemployment indefinitely.  The only way out is devaluation to regain competitiveness and for that they'll need their own currency.

This isn't a controversial analysis  as 5 minutes on YouTube will confirm.

As for Neil sueing me he can go right ahead if he wants. 

 

[Chindie]

Oh I know all of that.

I'm not sure it's the whole story or a crushing inevitability. Are all the people with an interest in EU finances incompetent or willfully blind to it? Why aren't they running around with their hair on fire? Everyone has known about Greece for years and they've kicked the can down the road, but if it's inevitable the thing comes crashing down why aren't every business and corporation running for the hills?

And if the Euro fails soon, does that inevitably mean the political structure it has plugged into fails? The one that's made a lot of economies and businesses a lot of money? I'm not sure.

As Hanoi says the Euro won't be around for forever. It may go in our lifetimes. But I'm not sure there's this crushing inevitability some of the Leave camp think it is. And if it does go, I'm not sure I'd celebrate it. Because the waves are going smack everyone hard, whether we've had the cleanest of breaks or not. Which is why I find the slight hint of wishing it collapses I find in some Leave fans slightly bizarre. Especially ones that seemed to believe Remain voters wanted Brexit to fail.

[Xann]

Global finance is a house of cards.

It's all a sham.

Keep dancing to its tune and 99.5% of us are screwed.

The UK is eyebrows deep in it, yet we seem to be dead set on keeping the parasite healthy. All the while our quality of life slips away.

 

Also a massive social change is coming due to smarter automation. It'll really kick in over the next few decades. Many jobs will cease to exist.

It's going to require people power to make it workable for the majority.

Preferably not backward or Luddite people power, but there's a lot of dimwits about and recent Tory ideas on education will adversely affect the poor.

The less said about the new American model the better.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

45 minutes ago, Awol said:

As for Neil sueing me he can go right ahead if he wants. 

Not going to happen.  I think a " like" now and then is enough.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Amsterdam_Neil_D

[Enda]

Oh look, the "inevitable" collapse of the euro. Feels just like 2010. How seven years flies.

[darrenm]

3 hours ago, Chindie said:

Oh I know all of that.

I'm not sure it's the whole story or a crushing inevitability. Are all the people with an interest in EU finances incompetent or willfully blind to it? Why aren't they running around with their hair on fire? Everyone has known about Greece for years and they've kicked the can down the road, but if it's inevitable the thing comes crashing down why aren't every business and corporation running for the hills?

And if the Euro fails soon, does that inevitably mean the political structure it has plugged into fails? The one that's made a lot of economies and businesses a lot of money? I'm not sure.

As Hanoi says the Euro won't be around for forever. It may go in our lifetimes. But I'm not sure there's this crushing inevitability some of the Leave camp think it is. And if it does go, I'm not sure I'd celebrate it. Because the waves are going smack everyone hard, whether we've had the cleanest of breaks or not. Which is why I find the slight hint of wishing it collapses I find in some Leave fans slightly bizarre. Especially ones that seemed to believe Remain voters wanted Brexit to fail.

But has anyone involved with the Euro asked @Awol? Here they are, completely oblivious that it's destined for failure and all they have to do is get in touch and he'll tell them what will happen and how to sort it out.

[Awol]

35 minutes ago, darrenm said:

But has anyone involved with the Euro asked @Awol? Here they are, completely oblivious that it's destined for failure and all they have to do is get in touch and he'll tell them what will happen and how to sort it out.

If I personally had knowledge to figure all this out I wouldn't be swapping insults with gentlemen like yourself on a football forum..

..But I do read a lot. When people as experienced and ideologically opposed as Norman Lamont & Yanis Varofakis, Joseph Stieglitz & Mark Blythe, Mervyn King & Jim Mellon (and many, many others) are all coming to the same conclusion it's worth paying attention to. 

Or you could just stick your fingers in your ears and shout "lalalala" really loud while pretending everything's just peachy. In fact if that's your thing there's probably a few jobs going at the ECB. 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Awol

[Awol]

@Enda Yeah, who knew the Germans & French were so full of European solidarity that they'd  throw the entire Greek nation under the bus to bailout their domestic  banking systems. "Extend and pretend" was the phrase Varoufakis used to describe it. 

Seems they are now pretty close to running out of road. 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Awol

[TrentVilla]

2 hours ago, darrenm said:

But has anyone involved with the Euro asked @Awol? Here they are, completely oblivious that it's destined for failure and all they have to do is get in touch and he'll tell them what will happen and how to sort it out.

Leaving aside the fact the above wasn't really necessary...

They aren't completely oblivious, that is kind of the point. They know only too well the issue or issues they are facing, what they don't have and what AWOL is not even remotely claiming to have is the answer. He is simply predicting what he thinks the outcome will be, I share his view.

But don't think its just us or that this isn't something people within the EU or the ECB are already aware of, they are very much aware which is why the Greece issue was kicked down the road.

Just look at what Proff Otmar Issing has had to say on the future of the Euro, he was the first chief economist of the ECB so should have a decent handle on things. The idea that the Euro is on borrowed time isn't something AWOL just came up with on a whim.

[Enda]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

Seems they are now pretty close to running out of road. 

Just like the euro would be sunk by 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and every other year people have predicted this.

Look, clearly the eurozone is not an optimal currency area, and its future is uncertain. (The same was said of the US dollar when it was introduced in 1780, under much less sophisticated and coordinated government mechanisms.) But to suggest it's certain to fail is just madness. It has survived through the de facto abolition of the SGP, it has survived through largest financial crisis seen since 1929, and it has survived the election of Nuclear Option Varoufakis in Greece. All the while, it has implemented constitutional structural deficit rules and binding guidelines for season-long forewarning on national budgets.

In 2012, Marty Feldstein wrote that the euro should be seen as "a failed experiment". That was five years ago, almost to the day. If you're so sure that the end is nigh, what odds will you give me on the euro lasting another five years?

[Awol]

@Enda I think 5 years is a good shout actually in terms of an expiry date, it could come much sooner but that will obviously depend on events. 

As for odds you'll have to ask one of the degenerate gamblers on here, I wouldn't know where to start..

 

[darrenm]

1 hour ago, TrentVilla said:

Leaving aside the fact the above wasn't really necessary...

They aren't completely oblivious, that is kind of the point. They know only too well the issue or issues they are facing, what they don't have and what AWOL is not even remotely claiming to have is the answer. He is simply predicting what he thinks the outcome will be, I share his view.

But don't think its just us or that this isn't something people within the EU or the ECB are already aware of, they are very much aware which is why the Greece issue was kicked down the road.

Just look at what Proff Otmar Issing has had to say on the future of the Euro, he was the first chief economist of the ECB so should have a decent handle on things. The idea that the Euro is on borrowed time isn't something AWOL just came up with on a whim.

I humbly apologise to Awol. I didn't realise it would cause offence. I'm truly sorry.

[Awol]

8 minutes ago, darrenm said:

I humbly apologise to Awol. I didn't realise it would cause offence. I'm truly sorry.

I'm not offended, we can all take a ribbing - well, most of us! 

[Chindie]

I caught a Beeb interview earlier with some bloke who was part of an organisation that had done an investigation into the exposure to the EU of the UK's city exports. Averaged out it was about 50%. 50% of our cities' exports are going to somewhere on our doorstep that we've decided to turn our back on easy trade with.

In some cities it was 2/3rds.

I hope those business owners have products that rest of the world really wants. Or there's enough margin for them to take a hit. Or no competitors on the continent.

[Awol]

39 minutes ago, Chindie said:

I caught a Beeb interview earlier with some bloke who was part of an organisation that had done an investigation into the exposure to the EU of the UK's city exports. Averaged out it was about 50%. 50% of our cities' exports are going to somewhere on our doorstep that we've decided to turn our back on easy trade with.

In some cities it was 2/3rds.

I hope those business owners have products that rest of the world really wants. Or there's enough margin for them to take a hit. Or no competitors on the continent.

Funny thing, lots of countries that don't even have FTA's trade with the single market without being in the single market. 

[Chindie]

14 minutes ago, Awol said:

Funny thing, lots of countries that don't even have FTA's trade with the single market without being in the single market. 

They do indeed. I'm not sure I've argued against that. I even provided an answer (a couple really) that accounts for this very eventuality.

My point, to be clearer, is rather... There's a reason that market with its free trade exists. It makes trade easier, cheaper. We will still trade with the single market when we leave (unless it vanishes into the ether on the glorious and long prophesied day of the collapse of the Euro) but it'll be more difficult. And that isn't good.

Unless you think it is good to make trade more difficult.

[Chindie]

This is probably a little out of date at this point but worth watching still I think.

 

[Awol]

17 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Unless you think it is good to make trade more difficult 

No, I think there's a balance to be struck between how much existing UK-EU trade will be restricted by Brexit vs the opportunities to increase trade via FTA's with other markets that are beyond Europe and actually growing. 

For better or worse the former is unknowable at this point, so some will choose to be pessimistic and others positive according to their personal bias. Anyone who tells you that they know what the arrangements will be in two years isn't telling the truth.

On the latter part we know major growing economies want to create FTA type arrangements with the UK, but we don't know how fast, easy or advantageous they will be at this point either.

What we can say for certain is that the EU is stagnant and represents an ever shrinking percentage of the global economy. 

The significant economic growth in the world is happening beyond the single market and increasingly in the Far East. 

The world is changing rapidly and there are no easy answers to any of the major challenges we face, be they economic, demographic or climatic.