Popular Post villa4europe Posted October 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted October 28, 2021 17 hours ago, Lichfield Dean said: Standard misdirection and kicking of smaller businesses by the government in this budget. Beer tax reductions are only on 40l containers, which are too big for most small breweries and pubs to handle. So as it stands, if you like your Heineken in a Wetherspoon's, great, the taxation rules will help them. Everybody else though? Yeah, they're screwed. At least the definition of the 40l size is not written in stone yet, so there is a chance they might back down... Seen a really angry response to this on my facebook form pub landlords and workers that I know, it's properly shafted them whilst Boris and Rishi are shouting from the rooftops about how incredible it is Favourite is probably this photo and comment that these are 30L kegs that a they're holding and exempt, shows the ineptitude of the clowns 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brumstopdogs Posted October 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted October 29, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted October 29, 2021 On 27/10/2021 at 22:54, Lichfield Dean said: Standard misdirection and kicking of smaller businesses by the government in this budget. Beer tax reductions are only on 40l containers, which are too big for most small breweries and pubs to handle. So as it stands, if you like your Heineken in a Wetherspoon's, great, the taxation rules will help them. Everybody else though? Yeah, they're screwed. At least the definition of the 40l size is not written in stone yet, so there is a chance they might back down... That tweet makes it sound like the threshold has been reduced to 20L and it's good news, which is not the case at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lichfield Dean Posted October 29, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted October 29, 2021 2 hours ago, fightoffyour said: That tweet makes it sound like the threshold has been reduced to 20L and it's good news, which is not the case at all. Yeah, they could probably have worded that a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumstopdogs Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 30, 2021 Author Moderator Share Posted October 30, 2021 50 minutes ago, Brumstopdogs said: They're very canny, the baby eaters. Days of co-ordinated leaks about "positive" things in the budget to start off each days news cycle, concocted rows with the French about fishing and so on, all set the agenda and give Labour (and the other parties) little chance of a fair hearing. They mess everythign up, the tories, but they're much better at spin and news management than anyone except the SNP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 30, 2021 Moderator Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Brumstopdogs said: Oh good, YouGov again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, bickster said: Oh good, YouGov again True, but the point is valid, for what has gone on they should be lucky to have 10%. They should be busy fending off angry mobs with pitch forks outside the houses of parliament. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 30, 2021 Moderator Share Posted October 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, Genie said: True, but the point is valid, for what has gone on they should be lucky to have 10%. They should be busy fending off angry mobs with pitch forks outside the houses of parliament. I have a problem with YouGov's weighting methods, their weighted samples are skewed to reflect correct proportions of Leave / Remain voters at the referendum, this is as much use as a chocolate teapot in 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, bickster said: I have a problem with YouGov's weighting methods, their weighted samples are skewed to reflect correct proportions of Leave / Remain voters at the referendum, this is as much use as a chocolate teapot in 2021 This is just respondents stating who’s they’d vote for if there was an election tomorrow. Might not be the most accurate survey in the world, but it shows a terrifying trend that people aren’t abandoning the Tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 30, 2021 Moderator Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Genie said: This is just respondents stating who’s they’d vote for if there was an election tomorrow. No, it isn't. The results are skewed to fit profiles, you need to look deeper at the methodology. The YouGov methodology skews the results to reflect how thaose people "say" they voted at the referendum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, bickster said: No, it isn't. The results are skewed to fit profiles, you need to look deeper at the methodology. The YouGov methodoly skews the results to reflect how thaose people "say" they voted at the referendum Where does it say anything about the EU referendum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just now, Genie said: Where does it say anything about the EU referendum? https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/ How is the data analysed? 'Once the survey is complete, the final data are then statistically weighted to the national profile of all adults aged 18+ (including people without internet access). All reputable research agencies weight data as a fine-tuning measure and at YouGov we weight by age, gender, social class, region and level of education. For political work we also weight by how respondents voted at the previous election, how respondents voted at the EU referendum and their level of political interest. Targets for the weighted data are derived from four sources: 1. The census 2. Large scale random probability surveys, such as the Labour Force Survey, The National Readership survey and the British Election Study 3. The results of the 2017 general election and 2016 referendum. 4. Official ONS population estimates' also How YouGov asks about voting intention? 'When we ask voting intention for Westminster elections we prompt people with the names of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Brexit party, Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru or "some other party". People selecting some other party are then shown a second screen offering the choice of other smaller political parties or "other". The selection of which parties we prompt for is based purely upon what past research and comparison with election results has produced the most accurate results; there is no formal criteria or level of support at which a party is prompted for. This is kept under regular review to reflect changes in the party system. Respondents are asked to say how likely they are to vote on a scale of zero to ten and their answers to voting intention questions are additionally weighted based on their answer and whether they report having voted at previous elections.' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - They don't make clear exactly how the weightings work, and it isn't *only* based on the 2016 referendum, but that clearly plays a part in the weighting (and rightly so, it is definitely not completely irrelevant). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted October 30, 2021 Moderator Share Posted October 30, 2021 I'm still not happy that they put the third largest party by respondent seventh in their ordering. Literally marginalised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 30, 2021 Moderator Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: and it isn't *only* based on the 2016 referendum, but that clearly plays a part in the weighting (and rightly so, it is definitely not completely irrelevant). If you look at what they do they exactly match the figures to be 48-52. Its as if it is THE defining category in the weightings . My point is that they are basing this on what people tell them now not how they actually voted and are matching that to the result of the referendum, there's only one thing that will do for sure and that is make the weighting inaccurate. In that poll it has changed the remain respondents from 703 to 630 but the corresponding leave voters have changed from 670 to 673. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, bickster said: If you look at what they do they exactly match the figures to be 48-52. Its as if it is THE defining category in the weightings . My point is that they are basing this on what people tell them now not how they actually voted and are matching that to the result of the referendum, there's only one thing that will do for sure and that is make the weighting inaccurate. In that poll it has changed the remain respondents from 703 to 630 but the corresponding leave voters have changed from 670 to 673. I'm not quite following you - the 2016 referendum is just one of 7 different weightings per the full results page, so I don't understand what you mean by 'the defining category'. I do agree that there will inevitably be slips when asking people how they voted five and a half years ago, because lots of people will have forgotten how they voted by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Surely the value in these polls is nothing to do with the actual percentage, but the change? So it doesn't really matter if the methodology of one poll gives a nine point lead and one gives a two point lead. The interest is in the direction of movement (if any) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Surely the value in these polls is nothing to do with the actual percentage, but the change? So it doesn't really matter if the methodology of one poll gives a nine point lead and one gives a two point lead. The interest is in the direction of movement (if any) Yes, that’s what I thought. The fact that there’s been a report saying the Tories killed thousands of people, they’ve been sending hundreds of millions to dodgy friend owned companies for PPE that can’t be used, shagging their PA’s breaking covid rules, lying about who is paying for refurbishments and holidays and why, increases taxes when they say they wouldn’t, the shambolic handling of Brexit which has made the country an international laughing stock, empty shelves, dry fuel pumps, cost of living going through the roof etc etc etc hasn’t led to a collapse of their support is really worrying. Voting intention however adjusted should be showing people have lost trust in those charlatans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Silvers Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Warning, includes foul language, which IS called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 18 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm not quite following you - the 2016 referendum is just one of 7 different weightings per the full results page, so I don't understand what you mean by 'the defining category'. I do agree that there will inevitably be slips when asking people how they voted five and a half years ago, because lots of people will have forgotten how they voted by now. I think because a lot of the polling done now suggests if that referendum were held tomorrow knowing what we know now they all suggest a very different result means that artificially weighting your respondents to the result of that referendum immediately gives you a skewed outcome. Its like saying I’m going to weight my respondents based on the voting % from the election of 1997. You’ll get a load more labour people, less tories and thus a completely wrong outcome even though a lot of that original % for labour have either died off or changed to another side. It’s a really bonkers methodology. The question has to be asked - when are the media, polling organisations and the public going to stop being defined by a crazy day in 2016 and look at the here and now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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