Relegation Thread Version...99?!

[dont_do_it_doug.]

Fair answer, thanks!

I like the players and I like the "idea" of the manager, but I do worry that were almost a third of the season gone and we need to turn it around now, like now now. We MUST find a couple of wins in the next 5 games if only to build some momentum and instill confidence and that will be hard going.

[Grasshopper]

It's all about Remi now. We may have the least points but we are just as bad as Sunderland and Newcastle, and Bournemouth. What we need is a cool head and I think we will get that from Garde, who plays our best 11. For whatever reason, Sherwood and now KM have gone out of their way to sabotage the team this season - it can't just be inept, I think they have had an agenda. We just need improvement and we will be fine - I think this is do-able.

so right

[HanoiVillan]

Fair answer, thanks!

 

 

I like the players and I like the "idea" of the manager, but I do worry that were almost a third of the season gone and we need to turn it around now, like now now. We MUST find a couple of wins in the next 5 games if only to build some momentum and instill confidence and that will be hard going.

Yep. I don't even want to write off the fixture this weekend. Of course it's absurd to expect a result, but it's a home game and to stay up we will need a lot of points at home. We need to look an awful lot more organised, harder to beat and more up for the fight this weekend, even if the result is very likely to go against us. After that, we need to approach every game looking for a win. 

However, I want to stress that since I'm pessimistic about our prospects, I will be patient with the manager. If we do go down, I won't be calling for his head unless he does abysmally badly, by which I mean, no improvement on Sherwood. We urgently need to get out of the habit of sacking at least one manager in most calendar years. 

[Grasshopper]

We need to win 10 games from 27. With expected defeats, that will probably be 50% win ratio.

 

 

That is making it sound a bigger task than it is for me. We need to win one more game than Sunderland and Newcastle, win one and draw one more than Bournemouth or win two more than Norwich. Three of those 4 things sees us safe over the next 27 games.

this

P.S. 10 from 27 isn't 50%

[VillaChris]

We have to play two away games in Manchester, City Sunday, Arsenal twice so it will very quickly become 10 wins from 20 if we're not careful.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

We have to play two away games in Manchester, City Sunday, Arsenal twice so it will very quickly become 10 wins from 20 if we're not careful.

You are George Osborne, I claim my five pounds.

[Grasshopper]

We have to play two away games in Manchester, City Sunday, Arsenal twice so it will very quickly become 10 wins from 20 if we're not careful.

ManC made hard work of beating Norwich because of injuries to their main players. A shot in the arm from Remi, a system that suits our best 11 (+subs) and a point (even 3 is not impossible)

Any of those fixtures following a midweek cup/CL game by any chance? (......."its only Villa, send out the reserves for 3 points - oh F**k, they can score".......)

[VillaChris]

I'm just being realistic...they will be plenty of games we won't win between now and the end of the season. Say we don't beat City or Everton which appears 99% likely then the ratio goes to 10 wins from 25 games, still the same even if we draw both games. That's what 4 points and messing up a decent fixture list for the first two months does.

At some point we'll have to have a 50% win ratio for a decent spell of games, we actually pretty much managed it under Sherwood, 5 wins in 11 games we got under him so near enough and if Remi is as good as people are claiming then he should manage that this season at some stage which would give us a fighting chance. 

[alreadyexists]

We have beaten Man City and Arsenal in the last 3 seasons with, I think most would agree, probably a worse squad than we have now. I agree they are difficult games, but to write them off as impossible is not true. If it were then we might as well just use Lawro's predictions to decide the league table. I do get the point though; that we have little margin for error from now until the end of the season, and I agree with you there.

[Keyblade]

Getting 4 points more than Bournmouth, Newcastle and Sunderland or Norwich over 28 games is by no means an impossible feat. In fact, it would only take a slight improvement on our current horrendous form to do so.

At this point a few years ago Southampton had 4 points from 11 games. They soon after went on to sack Adkins and hire Pochettino (who had no PL experience would you believe) and ended up finishing 14th. Let's hope Garde can be our Pochettino.

[Stevo985]

We need to win 10 games from 27. With expected defeats, that will probably be 50% win ratio.

 

No we don't.

10 wins would put us on 34 points with 17 more games. We probably only need 36 to stay up so we'd only have to draw 2 of those leaving 15 defeats.

7 or 8 wins and a handful of draws would see us safe I imagine.

[Keyblade]

Even so 10 wins from 27 is a 37% win ratio not 50 %, which is hardly impossible. 

[Stevo985]

There's always a way you can make staying up seem impossible. Then you can frame it a different way and it seems ok.

The way I'm looking at it, is midtable form from here until the end of the season will keep us up. I think the squad is capable of that if it's managed correctly.

IF Garde is as good as we're all hoping, we'll be fine. It rests on the quality of this appointment, imo. 

And, fwiw, I think we'll do it.

[markavfc40]

I'm just being realistic...they will be plenty of games we won't win between now and the end of the season. Say we don't beat City or Everton which appears 99% likely then the ratio goes to 10 wins from 25 games, still the same even if we draw both games. That's what 4 points and messing up a decent fixture list for the first two months does.

At some point we'll have to have a 50% win ratio for a decent spell of games, we actually pretty much managed it under Sherwood, 5 wins in 11 games we got under him so near enough and if Remi is as good as people are claiming then he should manage that this season at some stage which would give us a fighting chance. 

 

 

Why do you keep saying we need 10 wins? We have the team sitting 16^th averaging 0.8 points a game and the team sitting 17^th averaging 0.7 points a game. I think 35 points keeps you up this season and quite possibly slightly less.

We need to secure less than a handful of points over three of the four teams currently above us in the table and we have 27 games to do it. It is hardly a mountain is it. Tough yes but doable.

It certainly won’t need 10 wins. I’d say we need 32 points maximum over the next 27 games a points per game ratio which over a season would get you 45 points. 8 wins, 8 draws 11 defeats does it. We have Watford, Norwich, Newcastle all to play twice yet. That is 6 games. We also have Sunderland, West Brom, Stoke, Swansea, West Ham to play away and the likes of Bournemouth, Leicester, Palace, West Ham, Southampton, coming to VP.

You can be all doom and gloom about what we have in front of us and wallow in self pity about the poor start we have had. Or you can choose to do, as I am doing, and see the new manager coming in as a fresh start, focus on the positive that despite being as poor as we have ever been we are only 4 points from safety and see the next 27 games as a challenge but a big opportunity to claw back a maximum on 4 points on three teams. We can do this and as a fan base getting our arses down to VP, having a positive attitude and backing the lads and manager 100% will be a big help.

 

Edited November 4, 2015 by markavfc40

[Grasshopper]

I suppose it's all down to a manager, coaches & players having a set of excuses for when we get relegated or having some balls to just go out on the pitch and do whats required

[sexbelowsound]

I think we just need to get more points than 3 other teams.

Simples.

[Villarocker]

The person in me that has witnessed the first eleven league games this season thinks that you can write off the following games as defeats, from our remaining fixtures: Man City (x2), Arsenal (x2), Man Utd (A), Chelsea (H), Southampton (A), Liverpool (H), Everton (A). That leaves us with 18 games and a possible 54 points to get a minimum of 30 points from. Difficult ask that but, not impossible:

Watford (4 pts), Norwich (4 pts), Bournemouth (3 pts), Sunderland (1 pt), Albion (1 pt), Leicester (3 pts), Newcastle (4 pts), Stoke (1 pt), West Ham (3 pts), Swansea (1 pt) Crystal Palace (3 pts), Everton (1 pt), Spurs (1 pt). That's 7 wins and 9 draws to get us to 34 points. That's not losing 16 games out of the remaining 27, which shouldn't be too difficult if the guys find some form.

[Villarocker]

For some reason I cannot edit my above post so, here goes:

The optimist in me hopes that Remi Garde is a magician who will inspire us to many victories and up the league into mid-table comfort

[VillaChris]

I say 10 wins as in last few seasons 38 points has always seemed to be the number we confirm safety on, it certainly was last season and I think aswell in one of the Lambert seasons.

I say 10 wins as if we only win 9 that leaves us on 31 points so we'd have to draw a fair number of games on top of that and not draw too many.

I think it will be a tall order personally but the first few games of Garde will give us a good indication of whether the squad is up to it, I fear not.

Nobody is legislating either for one of the teams at the end of the season going on a mad run. That was us in 12/13, Wigan the previous season, Sunderland in 13/14 and Leciester and Sunderland last season.

Let's hope it's us.

Edited November 4, 2015 by VillaChris

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

The fact of the matter is you have to be truly awful to go down from this league. You look at how bad we've been for years now and have still survived.

This year is the strongest possibily of that happening, losing 9 of 11 given the fixtures we've had is attrocious. Especially as the 'harder' games we usually write off against the likes of Utd, Chelsea were more winnable this season than ever before given how bang average these sides have been. Yes we have a lot of poor players but I stand by the notion had the team been properly managed instead of being alienated by a clueless regime we'd be comfortably mid table now.

We've still got time, there is hope. Garde is getting a very good write-up by a lot the french guys in the game who know him, and he comes across well. Official unveiling today, I look forward to it, just hope we can hit the ground running.