The ISIS threat to Europe

[StefanAVFC]

4 minutes ago, ROTTERDAM1982 said:

Literally has, because the inference was that Trump was wrong to suggest that travelling to Europe was getting more dangerous for Americans.The reasoning being that terrorist attacks in Europe are on the increase, hence my post.

 

 Sorry if you had trouble understanding it.

Okay then.

You didn't respond to a single one of Chris' points.

Why are you just focusing on suicide bombing? Terrorism is much, much broader than that.

Also, do you have a source for your '40% of prisoners in Britain are muslim' stat?

[chrisp65]

18 minutes ago, ROTTERDAM1982 said:

Statistically as well Chrisp is the fact that 100% of suicide bombers are Muslim, there has been more "suicide attacks" in Europe in the last 3 years than there has been in the last 100 years, and how many would there have been if not for the security services.

 40% of the prison poulation in Britain are muslim, they make up 4% of the population, in France i believe its even higher.You can stick your head in the sand if you want to, but the general consesus is that the world is a less safe place than it was 10 years ago.

No doubt its our fault.

What does 'no doubt it's our fault' even mean?

As for 100% of suicide bombers being muslim, try to do some really basic google research first before embarrassing yourself. It's more like 99%. The current campaign of terror is indeed using islam as it's 'thing'. But the first suicide bombings? Russians. From as early as the 1800's. They lost a Tsar that way. Let's ignore suicide missions by Germans and Japs in the second world war. But yes, currently, well spotted, mostly muslamic.

You do yourself a dis service, presuming I've stuck my head in the sand. I was answering the point about the publicity various attacks get, and whether coverage is based on geography or race etc.. Coverage is based on media outrage and fear. A single terrorist death is more newsworthy than 40 or 50 road traffic deaths. It must be, they get the coverage. But do they get the coverage because there are pictures to go with the story. We can't sit and watch a newsreader any longer, we need pictures. New pictures every 20 minute update.

I wasn't apologising for terrorists, they can all die a long and painful death out of my sight where nobody cares as far as I'm concerned. I was commenting on news coverage and I was commenting on perceived risk. I appreciate that might be complicated.

Don't push your agenda about prisoners on to me, thanks. There's a decent point to be made about prisons. But again, do some basic research. There are over 84,000 people in UK prisons at present. less than 13,000 of them identify as muslim. It's a big and disproportionate number, but it ain't 40%, it's not even 20%, it's about 15%. Too high. 

Now, relax a bit, and I won't suggest where you can stick your head.

 

[Chindie]

40% of the prison population isn't Muslim. It's more like 14%.

The Christian prison population is nearly 50%. I assume we'll be sending all church going people to the camps.

The other 'stats' are misleading as well. The Tamil Tigers 'invented' suicide attacks in the modern era and they were active until 2009 - they aren't Muslims. Historically the methodology had been used by Russians, the Japanese famously, etc etc. Not all suicide bombers are Muslim. Like the Tamil Tigers the Kyrds have also used it for nationalistic aims. There's been an obvious vogue for it in the last 20 odd years amongst Islamic extremism, but it's not uniquely Islamic by any means.

The 'stat' that there have been more in the last 3 years than the past 100 is very misleading. You can also say that there have been examples of cyber attacks in the last 3 years than the last 100 - it's simply down to the fact it's a relatively new tactic in this style. The figure is meaningless. Suicide bombing is, as Robert Pape will tell you, quite successful - groups undertaking suicide bombing tend to achieve more of their aims than groups that do not use it. It's also a very 'successful' tactic generally. It carries a greater punch than is equivalents, because the bomber has control to the nth degree and can hit much more effectively than a static bomb. Combine that with various things going on the world on the Islamic sphere and how it can tie into versions of Islam and can why it's become popular. But that still doesn't change the fact that the stat is incredibly misleading to make out this is a long standing problem being exponentially worse recently, when really its only a comparatively modern thing that has grown in the last decade or so, and still, on the scale of things, remains fairly minor, even of you go beyond the UK and extend it to Europe generally.

As for the world getting more dangerous... Statistically not really. Terrorism is still a blip on death tolls worldwide, thankfully. I always quote this, but I always remember it from essay research - in every year apart from 2001, Americans were more likely to die drowning in a public toilet than in an act of terrorism.

[OutByEaster?]

47 minutes ago, ROTTERDAM1982 said:

Literally has, because the inference was that Trump was wrong to suggest that travelling to Europe was getting more dangerous for Americans.The reasoning being that terrorist attacks in Europe are on the increase, hence my post.

It does add weight to the idea that travelling to America is becoming more dangerous for European Muslims.

 

[StefanAVFC]

It does show that it's very easy to become popular these days. People are scared and people like hearing about how the people in charge are going to resolve those fears.

Not really relevant to this thread but two things about Poland. There's a refugee camp with 90 people around 30KM from where I live. Poland is becoming a bit right wing these days. Right wing Christian party is in power. In my city, nationalists are setting up patrols to prevent foreigners attacking Poles.

I've never seen a foreigner attack a Pole here. I've seen foreigners being attacked by nationalists.

Secondly, there was a bomb threat called at Warsaw Modlin airport yesterday. It was drunk teenagers at a party.

[maqroll]

Strange that Belgian law enforcement is taking heat for perceived slack security when nothing was said against their French counterparts in that regard.

[Chindie]

4 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Strange that Belgian law enforcement is taking heat for perceived slack security when nothing was said against their French counterparts in that regard.

The French were blindsided. It happens.

The Belgians were hit by a cell they knew, linked to the French atrocities, that they had already in part apprehended and dealt with in the aftermath of Paris, after it took them 4 months to find the remaining perpetrator they had discovered a stone's throw from his known residences, by people they knew and by people they'd been told to monitor. They dropped the ball, badly.

By all accounts a lot of home truths are coming out about the Belgian security services, not least of all the fact that different elements of it don't speak to each other, seemingly due to language issues, which just seems bizarre.

[maqroll]

Yes, the language thing is truly strange, and I'm sure it's something the terrorists are eager to exploit.

[Chindie]

4 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Yes, the language thing is truly strange, and I'm sure it's something the terrorists are eager to exploit.

I think that's giving any terrorist group too much credit. I'd stake good money they didn't have the faintest idea of any weakness of the Belgian services. And if wager that even if they now did, it wouldn't particularly influence they way they did things.

What the communication problems between departments and districts highlights is a weakness that lets things be missed, or fall through the cracks. Now they have been burnt by it, they can try to close that crack and stop it happening again. The communication failings let this group get lucky.

[maqroll]

1 minute ago, Chindie said:

I think that's giving any terrorist group too much credit. I'd stake good money they didn't have the faintest idea of any weakness of the Belgian services. And if wager that even if they now did, it wouldn't particularly influence they way they did things.

What the communication problems between departments and districts highlights is a weakness that lets things be missed, or fall through the cracks. Now they have been burnt by it, they can try to close that crack and stop it happening again. The communication failings let this group get lucky.

These people are mostly Belgian citizens, they'll know fully well the linguistic gaps in their own country.

[maqroll]

In fact, I'd go as far to say Belgium was identified by terrorist groups and their enablers long ago as a soft target and a safe haven to hideout, recruit, plan, etc for the precise reason that there are massive gaps in communication amongst law enforcement there. 

[Rob182]

I don't know if this is the right thread to put this in, but an Egyptian plane has been hijacked by a gunman. It was meant to land in Cairo but the gunmen ordered the pilot to land it in Cyprus, which it now has.

I haven't seen much official information other than this come out. But there has been rumours of a bomb being on board. Also a work colleague just said that there were Egyptian, English and American passengers, and that the Egyptian passengers have been set free (but I've not seen that reports anywhere, so could be BS).

[Demitri_C]

22 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

I don't know if this is the right thread to put this in, but an Egyptian plane has been hijacked by a gunman. It was meant to land in Cairo but the gunmen ordered the pilot to land it in Cyprus, which it now has.

I haven't seen much official information other than this come out. But there has been rumours of a bomb being on board. Also a work colleague just said that there were Egyptian, English and American passengers, and that the Egyptian passengers have been set free (but I've not seen that reports anywhere, so could be BS).

As a greek obviously very concerned for those on board and all the cypriots in the country. There has to be questions about Egypts security as this is the second serious incident to happen after the Russian air craft

[tonyh29]

sounds more like a political thing rather than a terrorist related plot

[maqroll]

I feel like we are hurtling towards the precipice. Things are really **** up in the world right now.

[Demitri_C]

Just now, tonyh29 said:

sounds more like a political thing rather than a terrorist related plot

There is rumours on Greek TV that the guy is in love with a greek woman that wont take him back and he is trying to make  a point. If true what a lunatic. 

[Genie]

Bbc front page

Quote

Spoiler

Most of the passengers on board a hijacked Egyptian airliner that was forced to divert to Cyprus have been freed, the airline says.

EgyptAir said negotiations had resulted in the release of all those on board Flight MS181 apart from the crew and four foreign passengers.

Video from Larnaca airport has shown people leaving the plane and boarding a bus.

It was taken over after a passenger said he was wearing an explosives belt.

Latest reports from Cypriot media suggest there is just one hijacker who was motivated by "personal reasons" and may be seeking asylum - although this has not been confirmed.

Live updates

EgyptAir said the Airbus A320 was carrying 81 passengers from Alexandria to Cairo.

A senior Alexandria airport official said those on board the flight when it took off included eight Americans, four Britons, four Dutch, two Belgians, one Italian and 30 Egyptians.

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, maqroll said:

I feel like we are hurtling towards the precipice. Things are really **** up in the world right now.

You could be right,  ISIS,  Trump, Syria, Paris and Brussels to name a few.  All the planets are lining up so to speak.

IF Trump gets in and IF Isis attack US soil for example then we have a problem.  He should and will retaliate but how and with what is the question.  He will go bigger than anyone before as his ego dictates that course of action IMO.  The UK has a weak and D-mob happy Prime Minister only interested in his legacy of European Union connections and the referendum.  Add to the the 1000's of terrorists returning from Syria which Europe seems to think they are all harmless with terror plans then we have an interesting Summer on the cards.  Maybe it's time for an ultimatum,  next ISIS attack on European soil X will happen.  We react to things after they happen,  put the ball  in their court for a change.  What X is,  I have some ideas.

 

[Chindie]

5 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

You could be right,  ISIS,  Trump, Syria, Paris and Brussels to name a few.  All the planets are lining up so to speak.

IF Trump gets in and IF Isis attack US soil for example then we have a problem.  He should and will retaliate but how and with what is the question.  He will go bigger than anyone before as his ego dictates that course of action IMO.  The UK has a weak and D-mob happy Prime Minister only interested in his legacy of European Union connections and the referendum.  Add to the the 1000's of terrorists returning from Syria which Europe seems to think they are all harmless with terror plans then we have an interesting Summer on the cards.  Maybe it's time for an ultimatum,  next ISIS attack on European soil X will happen.  We react to things after they happen,  put the ball  in their court for a change.  What X is,  I have some ideas.

 

What are your thoughts for X?

Presuming it's some kind of military action, this is exactly what ISIS wants. They believe in a scenario that was apparently prophesied where an end of times battle takes place in Dabiq which proceeds the return of Jesus and the end times. By issuing an ultimatum that says 'the next attack will be followed by US invasion of Syria and an eradication of IS' you'd have an attack in days. You may as well just go in. Everything IS is doing and inspiring abroad are jabs at the world to encourage the reaction - to enchanted us to do something that drives more people to them, and ultimately to force us to enact their prophecy and get embroiled in a nightmare...

Assuming we did go in and fight IS proper, what is the plan assuming you can capture all that territory? You're signing up to nation building, which to date has been a fools errand in the Middle East. Nation building is difficult in the best of circumstances (if not impossible). In Syria and Iraq? You'd be signing up for generations long campaigns which will sow the seeds of the next terror group. If you just turn large chunks of Syria to glass, and walk away at a job well done, who's going to fill the gap? Assad? He's a lunatic murdering his people en masse. The Kurds? A lot of Syrian people will have a problem with that, and likely other people in the region too. The anti Assad forces? You're just setting the battle lines for a war that will possibly lead to a genocide. And so on and so forth. A power vacuum and misguided meddling helped to make IS, another will just foster the next. And that's not accounting for wider regional games of influence and power with the Iranians and the Saudis, or Shia and Sunni generally.

There isn't an easy answer to this. If there was we'd already be doing it. Pandora's box has been opened and we're going to watch it play out until things change to such a degree we can try to fix it.

[choffer]

Again, too early to tell if it's "terror" but reports of Capitol Hill/Whitehouse being on lock-down because of a shooting this morning.