Dante_Lockhart Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 IMO all we need to do is beat Sunderland, QPR and Burnley. Those are the 3 must win games for me. If we can sneak some results in-between them (a win against Everton?) all the better, but 35 points will be enough to stay up this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If we can't stay up at the expense of this years shit league, I'll cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ED Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 IMO all we need to do is beat Sunderland, QPR and Burnley. Those are the 3 must win games for me. If we can sneak some results in-between them (a win against Everton?) all the better, but 35 points will be enough to stay up this year. Apart from Sunderland our away games are write offs, and I imagine it being a nervy draw no side wants to lose. This then means we have to win 3/5 home games..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante_Lockhart Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 IMO all we need to do is beat Sunderland, QPR and Burnley. Those are the 3 must win games for me. If we can sneak some results in-between them (a win against Everton?) all the better, but 35 points will be enough to stay up this year. Apart from Sunderland our away games are write offs, and I imagine it being a nervy draw no side wants to lose. This then means we have to win 3/5 home games..... Swansea, QPR, Everton, West Ham, Burnley. Certainly doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Relegation run-ins (assuming West Brom on 30 are safe at this stage of the season) Everton (28pts) play teams in 11th, 18th, 6th, 9th, 19th, 4th, 17th, 16th, 10th and 7th in current table. This equates to 117; so the higher the number the better/easier run in you have. Hull (27pts) play teams in 20th, 1st, 9th, 6th, 5th,12th, 3rd, 19th, 7th and 4th = 86 Sunderland (26pts) play 17th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 3rd, 8th, 6th, 14th, 20th and 1st = 102 Aston Villa (25pts) play 16th, 9th, 4th, 7th, 19th, 2nd, 14th, 10th, 6th and 19th = 106 QPR (22pts) play 7th, 12th, 14th, 13th, 1st, 17th, 10th, 5th, 2nd, 11th and 20th = 112 (but one game extra*) Burnley (22pts) play 2nd, 6th, 7th, 3rd, 14th, 20th, 10th, 15th, 8th, 17th = 102 Leicester (18pts) play 5th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 9th, 19th, 1st, 11th, 6th, 16th, 18th = 125 (but one game extra*) So Leicester have the easiest run in but are bottom for a reason - a threat but a small one. Everton have the second easiest run in and already top of this pile - they're safe. QPR, like Leicester but only three points behind us - got to think we need to better all results they have and the key game is inevitably Aston Villa vs. QPR! Villa - mid level run in, not easy not hard. Will need to pick up the points where they are 'expected' Burnley and Sunderland - trickier run in, particularly Burnley's next four games and that could cut them adrift. Sunderland need points in next few games. Hull have awful run in and next game against Leicester will be now be crucial. So I think Leicester doomed, Burnley doomed and then it's between Hull, QPR, Sunderland and ourselves with Sunderland safest and then a scrap between us and Hull with QPR still favourites for the drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Relegation run-ins (assuming West Brom on 30 are safe at this stage of the season) Everton (28pts) play teams in 11th, 18th, 6th, 9th, 19th, 4th, 17th, 16th, 10th and 7th in current table. This equates to 117; so the higher the number the better/easier run in you have. Hull (27pts) play teams in 20th, 1st, 9th, 6th, 5th,12th, 3rd, 19th, 7th and 4th = 86 Sunderland (26pts) play 17th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 3rd, 8th, 6th, 14th, 20th and 1st = 102 Aston Villa (25pts) play 16th, 9th, 4th, 7th, 19th, 2nd, 14th, 10th, 6th and 19th = 106 QPR (22pts) play 7th, 12th, 14th, 13th, 1st, 17th, 10th, 5th, 2nd, 11th and 20th = 112 (but one game extra*) Burnley (22pts) play 2nd, 6th, 7th, 3rd, 14th, 20th, 10th, 15th, 8th, 17th = 102 Leicester (18pts) play 5th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 9th, 19th, 1st, 11th, 6th, 16th, 18th = 125 (but one game extra*) So Leicester have the easiest run in but are bottom for a reason - a threat but a small one. Everton have the second easiest run in and already top of this pile - they're safe. QPR, like Leicester but only three points behind us - got to think we need to better all results they have and the key game is inevitably Aston Villa vs. QPR! Villa - mid level run in, not easy not hard. Will need to pick up the points where they are 'expected' Burnley and Sunderland - trickier run in, particularly Burnley's next four games and that could cut them adrift. Sunderland need points in next few games. Hull have awful run in and next game against Leicester will be now be crucial. So I think Leicester doomed, Burnley doomed and then it's between Hull, QPR, Sunderland and ourselves with Sunderland safest and then a scrap between us and Hull with QPR still favourites for the drop. If we beat Sunderland and QPR - IMO we would be extremley unlikley to go down. A Win at Sunderland would give us massive breathing space - going into those final fixtures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexbelowsound Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If only football was that easy to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don_Simon Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 IMO all we need to do is beat Sunderland, QPR and Burnley. Those are the 3 must win games for me. If we can sneak some results in-between them (a win against Everton?) all the better, but 35 points will be enough to stay up this year. "All we need to do" - If picking up three wins had been so easy and straight forward we'd be fighting the top three, not the bottom three. I love the optimism in the wake of Tuesday's win, but a speck of perspective shows we struggle to win games, so winning three is not going to be straightforward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante_Lockhart Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I didn't say it was going to be easy, but it is self explanatory. If we win those 3 games against teams also battling relegation, which we CAN do, then we'll be safe. So yes, all we need to do is win those. It's simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeordieVillan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Who knows what will happen in the Cup on Saturday or against Sunderland the week after, but if we can win both, then it actually then sets us up for a decent finish to the season, with a potential mid-table finish and cup semi final at least. Who would have thought that. However, if we lost the next 2 games, the impact on confidence would be a massive setback. The other thing is, the goal difference in narrowing now aswell, so if Spurs can beat QPR by a couple of goals on the weekend, then that looks like it is going to be less and less of a factor aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Go down, win the cup, relegated from the championship, win Europa, Relegated from League 1, win the Champions League. My face when; Edited March 5, 2015 by lapal_fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacbuddies Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Relegation run-ins (assuming West Brom on 30 are safe at this stage of the season) Everton (28pts) play teams in 11th, 18th, 6th, 9th, 19th, 4th, 17th, 16th, 10th and 7th in current table. This equates to 117; so the higher the number the better/easier run in you have. Hull (27pts) play teams in 20th, 1st, 9th, 6th, 5th,12th, 3rd, 19th, 7th and 4th = 86 Sunderland (26pts) play 17th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 3rd, 8th, 6th, 14th, 20th and 1st = 102 Aston Villa (25pts) play 16th, 9th, 4th, 7th, 19th, 2nd, 14th, 10th, 6th and 19th = 106 QPR (22pts) play 7th, 12th, 14th, 13th, 1st, 17th, 10th, 5th, 2nd, 11th and 20th = 112 (but one game extra*) Burnley (22pts) play 2nd, 6th, 7th, 3rd, 14th, 20th, 10th, 15th, 8th, 17th = 102 Leicester (18pts) play 5th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 9th, 19th, 1st, 11th, 6th, 16th, 18th = 125 (but one game extra*) So Leicester have the easiest run in but are bottom for a reason - a threat but a small one. Everton have the second easiest run in and already top of this pile - they're safe. QPR, like Leicester but only three points behind us - got to think we need to better all results they have and the key game is inevitably Aston Villa vs. QPR! Villa - mid level run in, not easy not hard. Will need to pick up the points where they are 'expected' Burnley and Sunderland - trickier run in, particularly Burnley's next four games and that could cut them adrift. Sunderland need points in next few games. Hull have awful run in and next game against Leicester will be now be crucial. So I think Leicester doomed, Burnley doomed and then it's between Hull, QPR, Sunderland and ourselves with Sunderland safest and then a scrap between us and Hull with QPR still favourites for the drop. If only teams didn't move around and just stayed exactly in the places you have them today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonoridge91 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Everton have the second easiest run in and already top of this pile - they're safe. Hey I've been watching Everton, they're 3 points of us and when you think how shocking we have been they're in dire jeopardy. They're pretty much as bad as us on current form. If they don't wake up and realise they're doing shocking they'll easily drop into the relegation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted March 5, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5, 2015 Win against the teams around us and we stay up, lose and we go down unless we beat some top teams in the run in. If we can do the baggies in the cup and take momentum into the mackems game and beat them, then we are flying and will then realistic require wins against QPR and Burnley. Much prefer us to be safe before the Burnley game though, if we do get some momentum you'd think we could do Everton on their current form, the Swansea game is a worry for me, even if we beat Sunderland, if we lose to them it could burst our bubble a bit. Who knows though, it's pretty clear who we need to beat but even though I'm more positive now that Sherwood seems to be rousing some sort of reaction from our squad who know how long it might last.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevpants Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Swansea might be on the beach when we play them. Though I said that last year and Shelvey scored from 40 yards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The next 2 rounds of fixtures will be incredibly telling I think, from the bottom up to Palace (the teams I think are, at least technically, still in it), the fixtures are: Leicester: Hull (H), Spurs (A) Burnley: Man City (H), Southampton (A) QPR: Spurs (H), Palace (A), Everton (H) Villa: Sunderland (A), Swansea (H) Sunderland: Villa (H), West Ham (A) Hull: Leicester (A), Chelsa (H) Everton: Newcastle (H), QPR (A) WBA: Stoke (H), Man City (A) Palace: QPR (H), Stoke (A) Those fixtures going perfectly for Villa would be: QPR v Spurs - A Leicester v Hull - H Burnley v City - A QPR v Palace - D Villa v Sunderland - H Everton v Newcastle - A WBA v Stoke - A Spurs v Leicester - H Southampton v Burnley - H QPR v Everton - D Villa v Swansea - H West Ham v Sunderland - H Hull v Chelsea - A Man City v WBA - H Stoke v Palace - H That'd leave the table as follows: 12. Pl: 30 | Pts: 31 | Palace (GD < -8) 13. Pl: 30 | Pts: 31 | Villa (GD > -23) 14. Pl: 30 | Pts: 30 | WBA (GD < -10) 15. Pl: 30 | Pts: 29 | Everton (GD < -8) 16. Pl: 30 | Pts: 28 | Hull (GD < -11) 17. Pl: 30 | Pts: 26 | Sunderland (GD < -16) 18. Pl: 30 | Pts: 24 | QPR (GD = -19) 19. Pl: 30 | Pts: 22 | Burnley (GD < -22) 20. Pl: 29 | Pts: 21 | Leicester (GD < -20) There'd be a very, very high chance of survival from that point, particularly given we'd be unlikely to have the worst goal difference in the league any more, and there'd be 5 teams between us and the drop. Realistically, it'll probably look like this instead: 12. Pl: 30 | Pts: 34 | Palace (GD > -8) 13. Pl: 30 | Pts: 32 | Everton (GD > -8) 14. Pl: 30 | Pts: 30 | WBA (GD < -10) 15. Pl: 30 | Pts: 30 | Hull (GD </= -11) 16. Pl: 30 | Pts: 28 | Villa (GD >/= -23) 17. Pl: 30 | Pts: 27 | Sunderland (GD < -16) 18. Pl: 30 | Pts: 23 | Burnley (GD < -22) 19. Pl: 30 | Pts: 22 | QPR (GD < -19) 20. Pl: 29 | Pts: 18 | Leicester (GD < -20) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted March 5, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5, 2015 Expected scores for our remaining gamesSunderland 0.7 - 0.3 Villa (so 0-0 most likely)Villa 0.5 - 0.8 Swansea (0-0)Man Utd 1.5 - 0.3 Villa (1-0)Spurs 1.5 - 0.5 Villa (1-0)Villa 1.1 - 0.7 QPR (1-0)Man City 2.0 - 0.3 Villa (2-0)Villa 0.7 - 0.9 Everton (0-0)Villa 0.6 - 1.0 West Ham (0-1)Soton 1.6 - 0.3 Villa (1-0)Villa 1.0 - 0.5 Burnley (1-0)So I'd have us on about 34 points most likely. When you look at the run-ins for the clubs below us, it's hard to see them hitting 34 points (Burnley's next few games are diabolical: they could well still be on 22 points with 6 remaining). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted March 5, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5, 2015 All the players need to do is work hard and don't give in. I think we saw them do this against West Brom, their heads had dropped, even Grealish looked lack lustre, then they seem to realise they had to chase the game. Their luck changed with the increase in effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 A point a game from now on in should be enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted March 5, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5, 2015 Expected scores for our remaining games Sunderland 0.7 - 0.3 Villa (so 0-0 most likely) Villa 0.5 - 0.8 Swansea (0-0) Man Utd 1.5 - 0.3 Villa (1-0) Spurs 1.5 - 0.5 Villa (1-0) Villa 1.1 - 0.7 QPR (1-0) Man City 2.0 - 0.3 Villa (2-0) Villa 0.7 - 0.9 Everton (0-0) Villa 0.6 - 1.0 West Ham (0-1) Soton 1.6 - 0.3 Villa (1-0) Villa 1.0 - 0.5 Burnley (1-0) So I'd have us on about 34 points most likely. When you look at the run-ins for the clubs below us, it's hard to see them hitting 34 points (Burnley's next few games are diabolical: they could well still be on 22 points with 6 remaining). Have a funny feeling we're going to beat the Hammers but draw with Burnley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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