$200 Million Takeover

[DelboyVilla]

So, if you buy a house for £200,000, then spend another £800,000 on paint to decorate it with (really sh*t quality paint I might add), can you then sell it for £1m?  I think his valuation is going to hold up any kind of quick deal.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

I've just seen another post above though that suggests PL teams are worth 4-5 times more now than in 2006, which would explain it.  Do you have a source for that stat?

We are only worth what the new buyer is willing to pay for us and I don't think that £200m is that price!

[smetrov]

So, if you buy a house for £200,000, then spend another £800,000 on paint to decorate it with (really sh*t quality paint I might add), can you then sell it for £1m?  I think his valuation is going to hold up any kind of quick deal.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

I've just seen another post above though that suggests PL teams are worth 4-5 times more now than in 2006, which would explain it.  Do you have a source for that stat?

 

I really don't see the Value being a sticking point - the value would plumet if we got relegated, and Lerner has to cover losses of £20m lasy year, add in the stress of another relegation battle - I think he will want out by Autumn.

 

My concern is that he won't be to fussy who he sells us to....lets hope (and its no more than that) that his choice of buyer is better than his choice of managers..

[djamfisher]

So, if you buy a house for £200,000, then spend another £800,000 on paint to decorate it with (really sh*t quality paint I might add), can you then sell it for £1m?  I think his valuation is going to hold up any kind of quick deal.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

I've just seen another post above though that suggests PL teams are worth 4-5 times more now than in 2006, which would explain it.  Do you have a source for that stat?

 

Well the increase in TV revenue over the years, will have helped increase the value, not to mention the contiued icnrease in how much clubs can command for sponsorship. I have no accurate figures, but from the figures banded about in the last few days, you can clearly see why Villa is now valued at a lot more than £.60m

[DelboyVilla]

 

My personal NITK view is that we will have to be patient for the next month or so maybe a bit longer.

 

Remember Lerner brought us for £62 million and is now looking for a reported £200 million because of his investment in the club. If I was a potential buyer looking at that scenario I would be thinking why the big increase? In 2006 the club was in decline and in need of serious investment, same as now.

 

In 2006 we had an unsettled fan base disillusioned with the board and manager, same as now. What Lerner has done is invest some money in the training ground, in the corporate facilities at VP, in the Holte Pub and some cosmetic changes round the ground. Now the rest of his investment has come in the squad and that has been in the main disastrous which a lot of money being pissed up the wall.

 

Our main saleable asset, Benteke, is out with a long term injury and the rest of the squad is middling in quality to be kind. TV revenues are increased but there are new rules coming into play that affect the way money is spent. So are we really worth £200m of someone's hard earned?

 

I don't think so. I would value us at £100m to £150m depending on Lerner desperation to sell, which I think now is pretty high. Plus there are issues at the club which as a new owner I wouldn't want to have to pay for such as the current managerial team pay off and I would want the 'bomb squad' off my books and out the door. This would cost £15m minimum. Then there is the investment in the squad required and the appointment of a new managerial team this is at least £60m this summer to keep us out of another relegation dogfight.

 

I think that is what's happening at the moment. Negotiations over the true value of the club and it assets, Lerner has brought players and sold players and we are in a very poor position at present. I think Lerner is going to get a wake up call on how much money he has actually wasted on this little project.

 

Once the real value id agreed I think the deal will go through because I think Lerner has got to the get rid at all costs stage.  

 

What is the real value of Aston Villa FC though?

 

Many City analysts are claiming that £200 M is a fair price based purely on the fact that Ellis sold his shareholding for £65M & Randy paid £110M all in to buy out all the other shareholders. In other words Villa was sold off too cheaply first time around.

 

More importantly. What price on the potential of Aston Villa?

 

eg  say the Quatar group who were allegedly interested in buying Man Utd for £2B suddenly became interested in buying us instead. They could easlly purchase us for £250M without batting an eye lid & that would save them £1.75 B on the purchase cost of a Premier league club which they could then potentially invest into building us into a major force once more.

 

If Randy plays his cards right £200 M should be easily attainable & that's not taking into account that there are many Billionaire's out there with massive ego's just waiting to be massaged.

 

Well we will be alright then as Lerner will be holding a dutch auction to sell the club to the bidder with the biggest ego. Lerner paid £62m in total to purchase us. Ellis did not  get anywhere near £62m more like £20m.

[PieFacE]

I really don't think Lerner has no one interested in the club like the papers are reporting. If that was the case then why the hesitation around Lambert? Pre-season starts in about 6 weeks, Lerner can't expect to sell the club in 6 weeks from now if there's no interest in it. That would be a pretty fast takeover. If there is no interest, surely Lambert would be offered a new contract and it would be business as usual, which makes Lerner's statement look even more ridiculous.  

[nazvfc]

I dreamt i was smashing Natalie Dormer's backdoor in

 

I wish i was dreaming about Ellison though

Bloody Perv!!! Each to their own - I'd prefer Natalie myself!

[troon_villan]

Is the club actually for sale?

I can confirm that it is.

Although, there is a chance that it is not.

#Stevoitk

They need to make a statement or something either way. Very frustrating!

[smetrov]

I really don't think Lerner has no one interested in the club like the papers are reporting. If that was the case then why the hesitation around Lambert? Pre-season starts in about 6 weeks, Lerner can't expect to sell the club in 6 weeks from now if there's no interest in it. That would be a pretty fast takeover. If there is no interest, surely Lambert would be offered a new contract and it would be business as usual, which makes Lerner's statement look even more ridiculous.  

 

Papers want story's the story now is no one wants to buy villa, next week it will some Drug Warlord wants to buy us, - I see this being done by October at the latest. My concern is who we sell to....

[NurembergVillan]

So, if you buy a house for £200,000, then spend another £800,000 on paint to decorate it with (really sh*t quality paint I might add), can you then sell it for £1m?  I think his valuation is going to hold up any kind of quick deal.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

I've just seen another post above though that suggests PL teams are worth 4-5 times more now than in 2006, which would explain it.  Do you have a source for that stat?

 

You probably could if Sky were popping a £60m cheque through the front door every 12 months, yeah.

[NurembergVillan]

I really don't think Lerner has no one interested in the club like the papers are reporting. If that was the case then why the hesitation around Lambert? Pre-season starts in about 6 weeks, Lerner can't expect to sell the club in 6 weeks from now if there's no interest in it. That would be a pretty fast takeover. If there is no interest, surely Lambert would be offered a new contract and it would be business as usual, which makes Lerner's statement look even more ridiculous.  

 

You're assuming Lambert would want to sign a new contract.

[sharkyvilla]

I really don't think Lerner has no one interested in the club like the papers are reporting. If that was the case then why the hesitation around Lambert? Pre-season starts in about 6 weeks, Lerner can't expect to sell the club in 6 weeks from now if there's no interest in it. That would be a pretty fast takeover. If there is no interest, surely Lambert would be offered a new contract and it would be business as usual, which makes Lerner's statement look even more ridiculous.  

Lambert has another year on his contract doesn't he? There's no rush to offer him a new one especially under these circumstances. If Lerner can't find a buyer he at least has a manager who has shown he can keep us in the PL on a pittance, but if we do get relegated he won't have to pay him off when sacking him.

[smetrov]

In the Browns and Villa, Mr. Lerner owns two pricey assets; Forbes valued the Browns at $977 million in its latest valuations of NFL teams, while Villa's value was put at $240 million in the magazine's last soccer team rankings, in 2009.

 

[DelboyVilla]

 

I really don't think Lerner has no one interested in the club like the papers are reporting. If that was the case then why the hesitation around Lambert? Pre-season starts in about 6 weeks, Lerner can't expect to sell the club in 6 weeks from now if there's no interest in it. That would be a pretty fast takeover. If there is no interest, surely Lambert would be offered a new contract and it would be business as usual, which makes Lerner's statement look even more ridiculous.  

 

You're assuming Lambert would want to sign a new contract.

 

I think Lambert's main problem is at the moment that Lerner has withdrawn the new contract from the table because no new owner will want a manager with Lambert's record tied to a 3 year deal. No new owner in his right mind would want to retain that idiots services!

 

Plus on the value issue. If I was buying this is the way I would look at it.

 

The club in the Premier League is probably worth £200m in it's current state. However if I pay £200m and do not invest then the club will get relegated and the value would plummet to under £100m. The maintain Premier League status would safely mean £50m investment so I would take that off the purchase price and offer Lerner £150m.

 

I think if Lerner had put us up 4 years ago towards the end of MON's reign then the price would have been £250m for a top 6 side.

[P3te]

In the Browns and Villa, Mr. Lerner owns two pricey assets; Forbes valued the Browns at $977 million in its latest valuations of NFL teams, while Villa's value was put at $240 million in the magazine's last soccer team rankings, in 2009.

Lerner sold the browns last year

[Folski]

So, if you buy a house for £200,000, then spend another £800,000 on paint to decorate it with (really sh*t quality paint I might add), can you then sell it for £1m?  I think his valuation is going to hold up any kind of quick deal.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

I've just seen another post above though that suggests PL teams are worth 4-5 times more now than in 2006, which would explain it.  Do you have a source for that stat?

 

The clubs revenue in 2005-6 when Randy bought us was £49m I think we got £72m this year from Tv alone.

[Frobisher]

What's the hit rate for VT ITKs?

Mendi - 100%

Kwan - 100%

HairyHands - 100%

Richard - 70%

MM - 70%

Hippo - 50%

Trent - 50%

Richard - 70% and then some.

[smetrov]

 

In the Browns and Villa, Mr. Lerner owns two pricey assets; Forbes valued the Browns at $977 million in its latest valuations of NFL teams, while Villa's value was put at $240 million in the magazine's last soccer team rankings, in 2009.

 

Lerner sold the browns last year

 

 

Yes I know - I was just contrubuting to the discussion of how much AVFC is worth. Based on the above £200m would seem about right.

 

I reckon our bidder is Woody Johnson.    total guess mind !

[srsmithusa]

OK, based on the advice I got from TrentVilla, I drove all night on the assumption I could park, despite that numpty on TBAR not getting the code.  I’m here hiding in the shrubbery in front of the restaurant.  I’m dressed as an attacking midfielder making a delayed run into the box, that way nobody associated with Villa will see me.

 

Oh, Wait.  Here comes a car.  It’s Randy, he walks into the restaurant smiling and looking very confident.  I guess that’s a good sign.  Here comes another car.  Oh, they can’t get past the parking gate.  So, it looks like they’re getting out of the car at the street and walking.  It’s Paul Faulkner and his idiot TBAR assistant who didn’t ask for the gate code.  But, this is interesting.  Paul Faulkner is wearing a climbing harness and helmet.  Maybe he’s expecting to do an abseil in this meeting.  Or wait, the harness might be a parachute, can’t really tell from here.

 

Here comes another car.  Paul Lambert gets out.  Damn, he looks pissed.  He didn’t look this pissed during any humiliating drubbing we took this year.  Stay out of his way, he looks determined to ruin this day.

 

Well, guess this is the meeting then. WAIT !  Here comes another car.  It’s a stretch Limo.  On my, there are three Sheiks getting out.  It’s windy here.  So, to repeat, there are 3 Sheiks in the wind.  One of them tips the driver with a bar of gold bullion and they walk into the restaurant smiling and joking.

 

Here comes another car.  It’s also a Limo.  Three guys dressed in black wearing Russian machine guns around their necks.  They’re looking around the area.  One of them just nodded all clear and the door opens.  OMG it’s Putin.  No! It just looks like Putin.  But he is carrying a bottle of Vodka with him.

 

And ANOTHER car pulls in.  It’s a Gold colored Cadillac with steer horns on the front.  The guy getting out is wearing a Stetson and gold tipped boots.  And there’s a kid with him.  Looks to be about 7 years old.    He’s carrying a size 4 ball and wearing an MLS t-shirt.

 

Well, I guess that’s it then, we’re about to have a bidding war.  WAIT!!!  One more car:  Damn this car moves slowly, it’s just creeping through the parking lot, like it’s running on a hairdryer motor.  Ok.  It finally stopped and somebody’s getting out.  WTF?!?!?  It’s Mendi !!!!!

[Ghost]

In the Browns and Villa, Mr. Lerner owns two pricey assets; Forbes valued the Browns at $977 million in its latest valuations of NFL teams, while Villa's value was put at $240 million in the magazine's last soccer team rankings, in 2009.

Lerner sold the browns last year

Yes I know - I was just contrubuting to the discussion of how much AVFC is worth. Based on the above £200m would seem about right.

I reckon our bidder is Woody Johnson. total guess mind !

Sounds like a bit of a rocket polisher.

[El-Reacho]

 

I really don't think Lerner has no one interested in the club like the papers are reporting. If that was the case then why the hesitation around Lambert? Pre-season starts in about 6 weeks, Lerner can't expect to sell the club in 6 weeks from now if there's no interest in it. That would be a pretty fast takeover. If there is no interest, surely Lambert would be offered a new contract and it would be business as usual, which makes Lerner's statement look even more ridiculous.  

 

You're assuming Lambert would want to sign a new contract.

 

The indecision over any players' contracts, and lack of any transfer movement as well as the limbo over Lambert and his contract suggests to me that Lerner's not interested and has someone who will come in and sort all this out.

 

We signed the likes of Tonev, Okore, and Bacuna in late May / early June last summer and we were being linked with all sorts of players well in advance of that, none of which is happening this year. I seem to remember Faulkner saying that the club had made a point of doing their business as early as possible last year. I reckon if we don't do the same this year it will be because the new owner is due in soon, not because RL is sitting waiting on a new buyer to call him.

Edited May 16, 2014 by El-Reacho