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$200 Million Takeover


supernova26

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IN the history of these things - dead deals have a habit of coming alive again - remember Lerner buying us was dead in the water at one stage. I take the fact we were almost sold as a positive.


What's the hit rate for VT ITKs?

 

Mendi - 100%

Kwan - 100%

HairyHands - 100%

Richard - 70%

MM - 70%

Hippo - 50%

Trent - 50%

 

aHHHH - bang goes one of my theories #gloomy...

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My personal NITK view is that we will have to be patient for the next month or so maybe a bit longer.

 

Remember Lerner brought us for £62 million and is now looking for a reported £200 million because of his investment in the club. If I was a potential buyer looking at that scenario I would be thinking why the big increase? In 2006 the club was in decline and in need of serious investment, same as now.

 

In 2006 we had an unsettled fan base disillusioned with the board and manager, same as now. What Lerner has done is invest some money in the training ground, in the corporate facilities at VP, in the Holte Pub and some cosmetic changes round the ground. Now the rest of his investment has come in the squad and that has been in the main disastrous which a lot of money being pissed up the wall.

 

Our main saleable asset, Benteke, is out with a long term injury and the rest of the squad is middling in quality to be kind. TV revenues are increased but there are new rules coming into play that affect the way money is spent. So are we really worth £200m of someone's hard earned?

 

I don't think so. I would value us at £100m to £150m depending on Lerner desperation to sell, which I think now is pretty high. Plus there are issues at the club which as a new owner I wouldn't want to have to pay for such as the current managerial team pay off and I would want the 'bomb squad' off my books and out the door. This would cost £15m minimum. Then there is the investment in the squad required and the appointment of a new managerial team this is at least £60m this summer to keep us out of another relegation dogfight.

 

I think that is what's happening at the moment. Negotiations over the true value of the club and it assets, Lerner has brought players and sold players and we are in a very poor position at present. I think Lerner is going to get a wake up call on how much money he has actually wasted on this little project.

 

Once the real value id agreed I think the deal will go through because I think Lerner has got to the get rid at all costs stage.  

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There is a buyer lined up to buy the club in the next few weeks, although there's a chance this particular deal will collapse.

 

The buyer is American, although there's a chance someone who isn't American will also make a bid.

 

The buyer is worth at least 5 billion, although estimates can vary so there's a chance he's actually not worth that.

 

 

#itk #youhearditherefirst #icantbewrong

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There is a buyer lined up to buy the club in the next few weeks, although there's a chance this particular deal will collapse.

 

The buyer is American, although there's a chance someone who isn't American will also make a bid.

 

The buyer is worth at least 5 billion, although estimates can vary so there's a chance he's actually not worth that.

 

 

#itk #youhearditherefirst #icantbewrong

 

If you are right I am going to ask you for the next lottery numbers pal.

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People keep saying Lerner bought us for 60m ish but wants 200m because of whats he's put in without realising that its actually probably what were worth now either way, football clubs in this league are worth 4-5 times more than they were 8 years ago.

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So, if you buy a house for £200,000, then spend another £800,000 on paint to decorate it with (really sh*t quality paint I might add), can you then sell it for £1m?  I think his valuation is going to hold up any kind of quick deal.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

I've just seen another post above though that suggests PL teams are worth 4-5 times more now than in 2006, which would explain it.  Do you have a source for that stat?

Edited by Max the Silent
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My personal NITK view is that we will have to be patient for the next month or so maybe a bit longer.

 

Remember Lerner brought us for £62 million and is now looking for a reported £200 million because of his investment in the club. If I was a potential buyer looking at that scenario I would be thinking why the big increase? In 2006 the club was in decline and in need of serious investment, same as now.

 

In 2006 we had an unsettled fan base disillusioned with the board and manager, same as now. What Lerner has done is invest some money in the training ground, in the corporate facilities at VP, in the Holte Pub and some cosmetic changes round the ground. Now the rest of his investment has come in the squad and that has been in the main disastrous which a lot of money being pissed up the wall.

 

Our main saleable asset, Benteke, is out with a long term injury and the rest of the squad is middling in quality to be kind. TV revenues are increased but there are new rules coming into play that affect the way money is spent. So are we really worth £200m of someone's hard earned?

 

I don't think so. I would value us at £100m to £150m depending on Lerner desperation to sell, which I think now is pretty high. Plus there are issues at the club which as a new owner I wouldn't want to have to pay for such as the current managerial team pay off and I would want the 'bomb squad' off my books and out the door. This would cost £15m minimum. Then there is the investment in the squad required and the appointment of a new managerial team this is at least £60m this summer to keep us out of another relegation dogfight.

 

I think that is what's happening at the moment. Negotiations over the true value of the club and it assets, Lerner has brought players and sold players and we are in a very poor position at present. I think Lerner is going to get a wake up call on how much money he has actually wasted on this little project.

 

Once the real value id agreed I think the deal will go through because I think Lerner has got to the get rid at all costs stage.  

 

What is the real value of Aston Villa FC though?

 

Many City analysts are claiming that £200 M is a fair price based purely on the fact that Ellis sold his shareholding for £65M & Randy paid £110M all in to buy out all the other shareholders. In other words Villa was sold off too cheaply first time around.

 

More importantly. What price on the potential of Aston Villa?

 

eg  say the Quatar group who were allegedly interested in buying Man Utd for £2B suddenly became interested in buying us instead. They could easlly purchase us for £250M without batting an eye lid & that would save them £1.75 B on the purchase cost of a Premier league club which they could then potentially invest into building us into a major force once more.

 

If Randy plays his cards right £200 M should be easily attainable & that's not taking into account that there are many Billionaire's out there with massive ego's just waiting to be massaged.

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Just heard a bloke on his mobile phone in his car as he drove past me

 

Apparently an Austrian consortium fronted by Conchita Wurst is interested in buying for us

 

The only sticking point in the deal is that the new owners would want Schwarzenegger as both fitness coach and masseur

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