Where will we finish ?

[PaulC]

If you look at the table now - the top 8 including Southampton are pretty much nailed on. So we have  to finish  the best of the rest. 9-11 is where we will finish. 

[Papillon]

From last season we can see that there was a very close distance from 18th to 8th. Only 13 points.

We got 15th, only 5 points off 18th and I'm pretty sure all of us would have taken 17th when there were 5-6 games left.

 

There's a huge polarization between the best and the rest in this league. Success is of course measured from where you finish, but there is just so little between the rest of the teams that a bit of luck will change everything. Two more wins and we would have been 9th so to speak, and that would have made our season a huge success. Our team is probably too good to go down since we managed to get a very decent start with famous wins against Arsenal and Man City. Crystal Palace are shit and they will go down no matter what, but all the other positions are open. Sunderland have been woeful thus far, but they have a few good players and 27 games to change their luck. Besides, beating Man City is an indication that they are not as **** as Palace, and QPR last season.

 

We can finish everywhere from 9th to 19th in my opinion. With Benteke on form I predict 12th in the end, which is three better than last season. Is that success? Is that solid progress? Not really, it's pretty much the same as I mentioned earlier, it's just down to one or two results and some good fortune. An equalizer in the 90th minute somewhere can change things around and we will probably be 2-3 points away from going up two places as well as going down two places. The difference between all these clubs is very small, but Newcastle have players like Ben Arfa, Sissoko and Cabaye. These players would walk into every single team in the bottom 10 and they can change things around in an instant. Same with Benteke, he would walk into every single team outside the top 6 and change the season for every team. Teams like West Ham, Stoke and Norwich are basically very poor this season, and even I can't see them doing better than us - and I'm always a bit pessimistic

[romavillan]

yup, i'd see us finishing near the top of a bunch from 8th-9th down to 15th-16th covered by 4 or 5 points. I reckon we'll get 50+ points though si i reckon we can finish 8th or 9th with that. true though that some bad/good luck that results in a 4 or 5 point swing coudl see you 15th or 16th really fast.

[Zhan_Zhuang]

Top ten should be achievable and would allow us to push on for the following season where we should be looking to finish within European qualification.

 

Benteke will most likely leave after the World Cup but we should have money to spend to find an adequate replacement and ideally a player of Ben Arfa's quality to pull strings in the midfield.

[lexicon]

Finish where we are now, that's progress, that'll do. Slowly but surely building the side up is fine by me. 

[abdulaziz1]

Win the next 3 or 3 of 4 .. And we could aim for high things .. well its hard but still ..

Im finding it great staring on the table from the top rather than lower end .. most of the teams up there will be playing each other ..

If we could somehow have a great run and win most of matches we could end the first half of season in the european places ..

[P3te]

If you look at the table now - the top 8 including Southampton are pretty much nailed on. So we have  to finish  the best of the rest. 9-11 is where we will finish. 

southampton wont finish in the top 8

[Rovers13]

If you look at the table now - the top 8 including Southampton are pretty much nailed on. So we have  to finish  the best of the rest. 9-11 is where we will finish. 

People were saying Stoke were nailed on a few weeks ago for top ten above Villa. I do believe that Southampton will finish top eight, but to say it's a sure thing at this point is very premature. They've had a very soft schedule.

[Isa]

If you look at the table now - the top 8 including Southampton are pretty much nailed on. So we have  to finish  the best of the rest. 9-11 is where we will finish.

southampton wont finish in the top 8

Err...why not?

[abdulaziz1]

 

 

If you look at the table now - the top 8 including Southampton are pretty much nailed on. So we have  to finish  the best of the rest. 9-11 is where we will finish.

southampton wont finish in the top 8

Err...why not?

 

He might be saying that because of their fixtures .. But anyway they're really good team .. What I'm happy of is that all of them up there are playing each others  so with a good run we might find ourselves between them ! Sweet ! lol ..

 

When you think of it .. Soton  are playing Arsenal , Everton , City , Chelsea , Spurs + Villa and Newcastle (That's from what I remember) ..

 

But at the same time .. Liverpool still have .. Everton , Chelsea , City , Spurs ..

 

Spurs Have .. Soton , Liverpool , City , Utd ..

 

Arsenal have .. Soton , Everton , Chelsea , City ..

 

Everton have .. Liverpool , Soton , Arsenal , Utd

 

City have .. Liverpool , Spurs , Soton , Arsenal ..

 

Utd have ..  Everton , Spurs .. 

 

So in the coming 8 matches .. every team is going to playing another top 8 team atleast 4 times (Apart from Utd who are playing 2 of them) .. 

 

I find myself familiar with these kind of calculations .. But fortunately , in the right area of the table ..

 

That's why I said in my previous post :

 

 

If we could somehow have a great run and win most of matches we could end the first half of season in the european places .. 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by abdulaziz1

[leviramsey]

I'm running the full 100,000 run Monte Carlo right now, but as a preview, from the first 4000 runs (remember that, relative to the possible sample space, 4000 runs with 270 games left is covering many trillion trillion times more of the sample space than 100,000 runs with 350 games left):

5th: 0.2%

6th: 0.6%

7th: 1.9%

8th: 4.5%

9th: 10.6%

^^ Upper 25%

10th: 16.9%

11th: 23.2%

== Median

12th: 21.0%

vv Lower 25%

13th: 11.5%

14th: 5.2%

15th: 2.4%

16th: 1.1%

17th: 0.5%

18th: 0.3%

19th: 0.1%

[AVTuco]

Were you on holiday or something?

Still believe in your median. I would handclap here, but don't know how to do it on iPad.

Edited November 15, 2013 by AVTuco

[leviramsey]

Full n=100k:

5th: 0.1%

6th: 0.7%

7th: 1.9%

8th: 5.2%

9th: 10.1%

^^^ Top quartile

10th: 17.0%

11th: 24.1%

=== Median

12th: 20.7%

vvv Bottom quartile

13th: 10.8%

14th: 5.1%

15th: 2.4%

16th: 1.1%

17th: 0.5%

18th: 0.2%

19th: 0.1%

IQRs for the whole league (with current ranking in my European football power ratings)

Arsenal (#13): 1st - 3rd (median finish: 2nd)

Aston Villa (#53): 10th-12th (median finish: 11th)

Chelsea (#9): 1st - 3rd (median finish: 2nd)

Cardiff (#156): 15th - 17th (median finish: 16th)

Palace (#215): 20th (88% of rock bottom...)

Everton (#42): 8th - 10th (median finish: 9th)

Fulham (#138): 15th - 18th (median finish: 17th)

Hull (#99): 13th - 15th (median finish: 14th)

Liverpool (#16): 2nd - 4th (median finish: 3rd)

Man City (#15): 4th - 6th (median finish: 5th)

Man Utd (#6): 1st - 3rd (median finish: 2nd)

Norwich (#150): 16th - 18th (median finish: 17th)

Newcastle (#30): 8th - 10th (median finish: 9th)

Southampton (#25): 5th - 8th (median finish: 6th)

Stoke (#122): 14th - 17th (median finish: 15th)

Sunderland (#113): 15th - 19th (median finish: 18th)

Swansea (#69): 10th - 13th (median finish: 12th)

Spurs (#28): 5th - 8th (median finish: 6th)

West Brom (#40): 8th - 11th (median finish: 10th)

West Ham (#100): 13th - 16th (median finish: 15th)

Title race

Chelsea: 29.8%

Arsenal: 26.8%

Man Utd: 25.9%

Liverpool: 11.9%

Man City: 4.4%

Southampton, Spurs: 0.6%

Top 4 race

Chelsea: 87.7%

Man Utd: 86.9%

Arsenal: 85.1%

Liverpool: 67.2%

Man City: 41.3%

Southampton: 14.3%

Spurs: 14.1%

Newcastle: 1.7%

Everton: 1.2%

West Brom: 0.5%

Relegation

Palace: 98.9%

Sunderland: 56.0%

Norwich: 43.6%

Fulham: 37.1%

Cardiff: 28.8%

Stoke: 19.0%

West Ham: 10.7%

Hull: 5.1%

Swansea: 0.5%

Villa: 0.3%

[AVTuco]

Palace to relegate with a 98,9 % certainty. Their fans would be delighted if they saw this.

[ciggiesnbeer]

Palace to relegate with a 98,9 % certainty. Their fans would be delighted if they saw this.

 

[StefanAVFC]

I think we are in for a dull season myself with little to cheer about. We won't finish mid-table and we won't go down. 13th I reckon. We won't be near the bottom 3 unless Norwich sack their manager and pull us back into it, and we fail to start winning games. Sunderland and Crystal Palace are so god-awful, and Norwich aren't far off those two at the moment. Likewise we won't make much progress up the table as we can't score goals unless Benteke feels like it and our defending is still suspect. We are lucky in that there are three absolutely shite teams in the league this year, whereas last season there was only two (Reading & QPR).

 

Win against Cardiff with a few goals and we can start to turn things around. I expect a win really, lose and we really are in trouble.

 

If 13th isn't mid table, then what the fudge is?

[romavillan]

10th

[TJVillan]

How many points the other teams get is none of our concern. We can't influence what happens to them.

 

I think 50 points is a decent but achievable target for this season. So far we are on track to get that.

[Papillon]

We finished 15th last season and now we are 3 points off 15th with basically the same team. And there is a 2.4% chance of us finishing there? Yeah right

[Mantis]

We finished 15th last season and now we are 3 points off 15th with basically the same team. And there is a 2.4% chance of us finishing there? Yeah right

We're also 6 points off 5th yet there isn't a chance we'll finish there. At this stage of the season the margins are fairly small, but they get bigger.