Where will we finish ?

[ciggiesnbeer]

After predicting relegation last week and winning the league after the Arsenal game I am now taking the much more sensible prediction of 3rd.

[leviramsey]

I'll run a Monte Carlo later tonight, but my pan-European (or at least across the continental competitions and 11 top leagues) power ratings (one of the inputs to the Monte Carlo simulation) are:

#9 Arsenal (+1.66 goals)

#10 Man City (+1.54 goals)

#13 Spurs (+1.34 goals)

#21 Liverpool (+1.09 goals)

#25 Chelsea (+1.02 goals)

#45 Man Utd (+0.64 goals)

#46 Sevastopol (+0.64 goals)

#47 Vitesse (+0.63 goals)

#48 Zenit St. Petersburg (+0.61 goals)

#49 Monaco (+0.60 goals)

#50 Genk (+0.59 goals)

#51 Chornomorets (+0.58 goals)

#52 Celta da Vigo (+0.58 goals)

#53 Akhisar Belediye (+0.57 goals)

#54 Lyon (+0.56 goals)

#55 Aston Villa (+0.56 goals)

#56 Panathinaikos (+0.55 goals)

#57 Dinamo Zagreb (+0.55 goals)

#58 Bayer Leverkusen (+0.55 goals)

#59 Nice (+0.53 goals)

#60 Karabukspor (+0.52 goals)

#61 Newcastle (+0.52 goals)

#62 Juventus (+0.50 goals)

#63 Swansea (+0.50 goals)

#64 Internazionale (+0.49 goals)

#65 Trabzonspor (+0.48 goals)

#100 Everton (+0.27 goals)

#107 Stoke (+0.20 goals)

#111 Cardiff (+0.18 goals)

#113 Southampton (+0.17 goals)

#121 West Ham (+0.14 goals)

#137 Norwich (+0.09 goals)

#140 West Brom (+0.08 goals)

#167 Hull (-0.01 goals)

#192 Fulham (-0.11 goals)

#258 Palace (-0.36 goals)

#359 Sunderland (-0.80 goals)

I think we'll be playing European football this time next year...

Edited September 24, 2013 by leviramsey

[Rovers13]

I'll run a Monte Carlo later tonight, but my pan-European (or at least across the continental competitions and 11 top leagues) power ratings (one of the inputs to the Monte Carlo simulation) are:

#9 Arsenal (+1.66 goals)

#10 Man City (+1.54 goals)

#13 Spurs (+1.34 goals)

#21 Liverpool (+1.09 goals)

#25 Chelsea (+1.02 goals)

#45 Man Utd (+0.64 goals)

#46 Sevastopol (+0.64 goals)

#47 Vitesse (+0.63 goals)

#48 Zenit St. Petersburg (+0.61 goals)

#49 Monaco (+0.60 goals)

#50 Genk (+0.59 goals)

#51 Chornomorets (+0.58 goals)

#52 Celta da Vigo (+0.58 goals)

#53 Akhisar Belediye (+0.57 goals)

#54 Lyon (+0.56 goals)

#55 Aston Villa (+0.56 goals)

#56 Panathinaikos (+0.55 goals)

#57 Dinamo Zagreb (+0.55 goals)

#58 Bayer Leverkusen (+0.55 goals)

#59 Nice (+0.53 goals)

#60 Karabukspor (+0.52 goals)

#61 Newcastle (+0.52 goals)

#62 Juventus (+0.50 goals)

#63 Swansea (+0.50 goals)

#64 Internazionale (+0.49 goals)

#65 Trabzonspor (+0.48 goals)

#100 Everton (+0.27 goals)

#107 Stoke (+0.20 goals)

#111 Cardiff (+0.18 goals)

#113 Southampton (+0.17 goals)

#121 West Ham (+0.14 goals)

#137 Norwich (+0.09 goals)

#140 West Brom (+0.08 goals)

#167 Hull (-0.01 goals)

#192 Fulham (-0.11 goals)

#258 Palace (-0.36 goals)

#359 Sunderland (-0.80 goals)

I think we'll be playing European football this time next year...

I don't know how this works but I love it

[AVTuco]

Don't care about Europe. The money would be ok though.

[briny_ear]

How come we get to be 55 and Everton, who look a class above us in all respects, are 100?

[leviramsey]

Everton's meaningful games for the rating:

2-1 away to Chelsea

2-2 away to Norwich

0-0 home to WBA

0-0 away to Cardiff

1-0 home to Chelsea

3-2 away to West Ham

Villa's meaningful games for the rating

1-3 away to Arsenal

2-1 away to Chelsea

0-1 home to Liverpool

1-2 home to Newcastle

0-1 away to Norwich

(Wigan isn't rateable at the moment, due to not enough (only their Europa League and any cup meetings against the PL) games this season)

Better Norwich away result for us, same result for Chelsea away. 1-3 away over higher-rated Arsenal is better than 1-0 home over Chelsea. That leaves

0-0 home to WBA (#140)

0-0 away to Cardiff (#111)

3-2 away to West Ham (#121)

vs.

0-1 home to Liverpool (#21)

1-2 home to Newcastle (#61)

[leviramsey]

The rating clock has ticked over... now only this season's results are counting. The next week or two will be a bit in flux, as the CL/EL qualifiers age out and take the clubs from the smaller countries out of consideration. Villa drop to 12th ranked among English clubs (fractionally behind WBA and slightly above Stoke) and 96th in Europe, with Slovan Liberec, Valencia, Pandurii Targu Jiu, Braga, Celta de Vigo, Astra Giurgiu, CSKA Moscow, Krasnodar, and Villarreal our neighbors.

Finish distribution:

4th place: 0.1%

5th place: 0.4%

6th place: 2.0%

7th place: 3.8%

8th place: 6.6%

9th place: 9.5%

^^^ Upper quartile

10th place: 12.3%

11th place: 13.7%

=== MEDIAN ===

12th place: 13.7%

13th place: 12.2%

vvv Lower quartile

14th place: 10.0%

15th place: 7.2%

16th place: 4.6%

17th place: 2.6%

18th place: 1.1%

19th place: 0.2%

[Papillon]

We don't have the ability or squad to compete for the top 8, the competition is just too big in front of us. An injury to Benteke and we are suddenly looking very thin on paper, our system is very easy to pick apart now that everyone know how we play football. The Newcastle-game was maybe an evidence of such, and against Norwich we won despite being the second-best team for most of the game. Hey, you sometimes win when you are crap and lose when you are awesome. Against Chelsea we deserved a point no doubt, but then again better teams win matches from few chances when poorer teams need many more. After 1 (!) game of the season, against a tired Arsenal-side, people were talking about Europe and even better, but people seriously need to adjust their impression of how good we really are. Come to think about it, the best time to meet Arsenal away is on the opening day of the season when they aren't settled. On top of that, they had injuries and had one eye on the Champions League-qualifiers. If we had them on Saturday at the Emirates it would have been an entirely different spectacle.

 

My prediction remains pretty similar to what I said before the season started, that we will end up somewhere between 11th and 14th. That is progress obviously, and I don't expect us to follow a similar pattern from last season in terms of fighting relegation to the bitter end. We might be there for a while just now, due to our abysmal fixtures in the league, but on our day we are better than Crystal Palace, Hull and Sunderland no doubt about it. When it comes to West Ham, Cardiff, Southampton, Stoke, Fulham, Newcastle and Norwich - the bottom 10 is difficult to predict and any team has the ability to do well but also falter big-time. Many of these teams have vital experience we don't have though, and teams like Newcastle have obvious better talent than us. Players like Ben Arfa and Sissoko are lightyears above our midfield choices.

[BG_Villa_Fan]

 

My prediction remains pretty similar to what I said before the season started, that we will end up somewhere between 11th and 14th. That is progress obviously, and I don't expect us to follow a similar pattern from last season in terms of fighting relegation to the bitter end. We might be there for a while just now, due to our abysmal fixtures in the league, but on our day we are better than Crystal Palace, Hull and Sunderland no doubt about it. When it comes to West Ham, Cardiff, Southampton, Stoke, Fulham, Newcastle and Norwich - the bottom 10 is difficult to predict and any team has the ability to do well but also falter big-time. Many of these teams have vital experience we don't have though, and teams like Newcastle have obvious better talent than us. Players like Ben Arfa and Sissoko are lightyears above our midfield choices.

 

Agree with most of this. I'd put Southampton in the teams with clearly more talent than Villa too. 11th to 16th is wide open, though.

[leviramsey]

I'm running Monte Carlo right now (since I have some extra time, this time it's 150,000 runs), but Villa have leapt up the rankings.

Current Europe Top 30

1. Bayern Munich (+2.34 goals)

2. Heerenveen (+1.87)

3. PSG (+1.76)

4. Roma (+1.69)

5. Arsenal (+1.68)

6. Atletico Madrid (+1.63)

7. Metalist Kharkiv (+1.59)

8. St. Gallen (+1.52)

9. Man City (+1.48)

10. Barcelona (+1.46)

11. Dortmund (+1.45)

12. Salzburg (+1.42)

13. Twente (+1.38)

14. Real Madrid (+1.37)

15. Tottenham (+1.29)

16. Porto (+1.22)

17. Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (+1.20)

18. Real Betis (+1.17)

19. Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.05)

20. Zenit St. Petersburg (+1.03)

21. Fenerbahce (+1.02)

22. Panathinaikos (+0.97)

23. Feyenoord (+0.97)

24. Bayer Leverkusen (+0.88)

25. Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.87)

26. Dinamo Moscow (+0.81)

27. Aston Villa (+0.80)

28. Monaco (+0.79)

29. Southampton (+0.78)

30. Thun (+0.77)

32. Man Utd (+0.73)

38. Chelsea (+0.62)

42. Swansea (+0.58)

49. Liverpool (+0.48)

51. WBA (+0.44)

78. Everton (+0.22)

98. Hull (+0.14)

115. Norwich (+0.06)

116. Stoke (+0.05)

119. Newcastle (+0.03)

138. Fulham (-0.09)

139. West Ham (-0.09)

160. Cardiff (-0.21)

219. Bristol City (-0.49)

260. Palace (-0.71)

263. Wigan (-0.72)

270. Sunderland (-0.81)

I think top 6 is not excessively optimistic.

[Condimentalist]

I'm running Monte Carlo right now (since I have some extra time, this time it's 150,000 runs), but Villa have leapt up the rankings.

Current Europe Top 30

1. Bayern Munich (+2.34 goals)

2. Heerenveen (+1.87)

3. PSG (+1.76)

4. Roma (+1.69)

5. Arsenal (+1.68)

6. Atletico Madrid (+1.63)

7. Metalist Kharkiv (+1.59)

8. St. Gallen (+1.52)

9. Man City (+1.48)

10. Barcelona (+1.46)

11. Dortmund (+1.45)

12. Salzburg (+1.42)

13. Twente (+1.38)

14. Real Madrid (+1.37)

15. Tottenham (+1.29)

16. Porto (+1.22)

17. Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (+1.20)

18. Real Betis (+1.17)

19. Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.05)

20. Zenit St. Petersburg (+1.03)

21. Fenerbahce (+1.02)

22. Panathinaikos (+0.97)

23. Feyenoord (+0.97)

24. Bayer Leverkusen (+0.88)

25. Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.87)

26. Dinamo Moscow (+0.81)

27. Aston Villa (+0.80)

28. Monaco (+0.79)

29. Southampton (+0.78)

30. Thun (+0.77)

32. Man Utd (+0.73)

38. Chelsea (+0.62)

42. Swansea (+0.58)

49. Liverpool (+0.48)

51. WBA (+0.44)

78. Everton (+0.22)

98. Hull (+0.14)

115. Norwich (+0.06)

116. Stoke (+0.05)

119. Newcastle (+0.03)

138. Fulham (-0.09)

139. West Ham (-0.09)

160. Cardiff (-0.21)

219. Bristol City (-0.49)

260. Palace (-0.71)

263. Wigan (-0.72)

270. Sunderland (-0.81)

I think top 6 is not excessively optimistic.

 

Hi Levi. Out of interest, what on earth is this all about? 

[Brumstopdogs]

11th or 12th place looks quite a possibility!

[Macca1888]

How come we get to be 55 and Everton, who look a class above us in all respects, are 100?

A class above us in all respects?  Not too sure about that.

[Macca1888]

 

How come we get to be 55 and Everton, who look a class above us in all respects, are 100?

A class above us in all respects?  Not too sure about that.

 

Ah, I see the comment was made a week or so ago.

[chappy]

Don't care about Europe.

 

Europe don't care about me?

[Morpheus]

I'm still looking over my shoulder to see who is worse than us to keep us up but at the moment I'm sticking with my orginal prediction of mid table with fingers crossed.

[viivvaa66]

Over the first six matches we have achieved 1.5 points per match, if that form is upheld over the season we would end up with 57 points. That gives me hope that we should manage to finish in the top half of the table this season. Of course it would have been really nice if we beat our previous best point total in the premier league of 64 point, but that is maybe to too much to ask for this season. Edited October 3, 2013 by viivvaa66

[VillaChris]

I'm still looking over my shoulder to see who is worse than us to keep us up but at the moment I'm sticking with my orginal prediction of mid table with fingers crossed.

 

I believe they're called Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Norwich City.

[Electric Avenue]

We will Len Goodman

Sevennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Edited October 3, 2013 by Electric Avenue

[abdulaziz1]

I'm still looking over my shoulder to see who is worse than us to keep us up but at the moment I'm sticking with my orginal prediction of mid table with fingers crossed.

I believe they're called Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Norwich City.

Are norwich really worse than stoke or fulham ?

Didnt watch full game for fulham but im just asking ..