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Where will we finish ?


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I'm still looking over my shoulder to see who is worse than us to keep us up but at the moment I'm sticking with my orginal prediction of mid table with fingers crossed.

I believe they're called Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Norwich City.

Are norwich really worse than stoke or fulham ?

Didnt watch full game for fulham but im just asking ..

 

 

Norwich played well at Stoke but overall they're a poor team that struggle to score goals and their next two are Chelsea at home and Arsenal away.

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I still think we'll be top half. There are a lot of teams worse than us this year - I think we'll end up 14th+ simply by not utterly imploding which means if we string together a good run at some point during the season then top half should be very achievable.

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Fulham are probably the worst team in the league right now

What about Sunderland?

I think Fulham are worse, Sunderland have a better team imho.

 

I think thats right, but Sunderland have just sold their two best players AND shifted a lot of deadwood all at once AND are going through yet another manager change. Its like they are going through our past 3 years all at once. Thats going to be tough. Still if they can keep in touch until christmas and get used to their manager (interim or new) then I think they can still be fine.

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  • 3 weeks later...

A new Monte Carlo run (100,000 simulations)

3rd: 0.1%

4th: 0.2%

5th: 0.5%

6th: 1.3%

7th: 2.8%

8th: 5.4%

9th: 8.6%

^^^ Top quartile

10th: 12.6%

11th: 15.0%

=== Median

12th: 15.0%

13th: 12.9%

vvv Bottom quartile

14th: 10.4%

15th: 7.3%

16th: 4.5%

17th: 2.5%

18th: 0.9%

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We are 1 point off 9th currently.

 

I don't really think it's realistic for us to finish much higher than that but I would be happy with 9th this season.

 

Between now and New years day we play Sunderland twice, Crystal Palace, Cardiff, Fulham, West Ham, WBA and Stoke all bottom half teams. We won't win all those games but we must take points from the majority of them otherwise we probably won't be far off the relegation zone.

 

I think we'll take around 15 points from that plus a point or two from the other games I haven't mentioned so we should be fairly comfortable in the league by new year.

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I'm still quietly confident about 14-17, very much at the top end of that range though.

 

(EDIT - that's finishing position, not the number of points we will get between now and New Year's day)

Edited by briny_ear
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Another week, another Monte Carlo:

7th: 0.2%

8th: 0.7%

9th: 3.5%

10th: 9.6%

11th: 16.7%

^^^ Top quartile

12th: 17.5%

=== Median

13th: 15.5%

14th: 12.0%

vvv Bottom quartile

15th: 9.2%

16th: 7.0%

17th: 4.8%

18th: 2.8%

19th: 0.5%

(part of this is the Arsenal win aging out of the recent form rating)

Edited by leviramsey
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Where i expect a club of our stature to be finishing 8th - 10th

 

Where i expect us to finish 16th

 

Because there are still glaring weaknesses that have not been addressed for whatever reason during the summer

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I'm still holding out for mid table and i hope we pick up the points most expect us to over the next set of fixtures but i'm still not confident we will do that.

 

Weimann and Gabby have lost form, Benteke is just coming back from injury and i don't see too many goals coming from our midfield, so it's pretty much all fingers crossed at the moment.

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