StefanAVFC Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 19th. Don't be so pessimistic! 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest av1 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 19th. Don't be so pessimistic! 18th. Don't be so optimistic! 20th ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted December 27, 2013 Moderator Share Posted December 27, 2013 ^^^ One of these three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted December 27, 2013 Moderator Share Posted December 27, 2013 (edited) 19th. Don't be so pessimistic! 18th. Joking aside mate, you're optimistic when it comes to Villa. Certainly more than I am. Where do you think we'll finish? (This isn't a trap by the way, I'm just interested). Edited December 27, 2013 by NurembergVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 19th. Don't be so pessimistic! 18th. Joking aside mate, you're optimistic when it comes to Villa. Certainly more than I am. Where do you think we'll finish? (This isn't a trap by the way, I'm just interested). God knows. 17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted December 27, 2013 Moderator Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'd take that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest Monte Carlo9th: 1.1%10th: 5.9%11th: 11.5%^^^ upper quartile12th: 17.5%13th: 23.2% <=== median14th: 21.1%vvv lower quartile15th: 10.6%16th: 5.2%17th: 2.3%18th: 1.1%19th: 0.4%20th: 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest Monte Carlo 9th: 1.1% 10th: 5.9% 11th: 11.5% ^^^ upper quartile 12th: 17.5% 13th: 23.2% <=== median 14th: 21.1% vvv lower quartile 15th: 10.6% 16th: 5.2% 17th: 2.3% 18th: 1.1% 19th: 0.4% 20th: 0.1% So is this equivalent to your post on 27 December that gave relegation possibility at over 12%? This now seems to have fallen to 1.6%. Hard to believe that a draw at home to a mid-table side and a win away to the bottom club could change things that significantly. (However, my comments should be read in the context that I have no idea what a "Monte Carlo" is! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 3, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'd have to go back to the projected scores, but the model probably projected an expectation of around 2 points from our Swansea and Sunderland games, so doing 2 points better than expected (and it slightly increases the expectations for remaining games).Combine that with the bottom five having winnable games and not being able to capitalize:Sunderland: draws with Cardiff (a), loses to Villa (h)West Ham: draws with WBA (h), loses to Fulham (a)Palace: draws with Norwich (h)Cardiff: draws with Sunderland (h)Fulham: loses to Hull (a), beats West Ham (h)All of them underperformed what would be a reasonable expectation, so Villa effectively got an extra 2-4 points on all of them over the two games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 So, actually, the Christmas/New Year period was even better for us than it initially seemed. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted January 3, 2014 Moderator Share Posted January 3, 2014 And that Monte Carlo thingy can't take into account injuries or more pertinently players returning from injury, so hopefully we'll be out-performing it for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condimentalist Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm sticking with 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Cropley Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Latest Monte Carlo9th: 1.1%10th: 5.9%11th: 11.5%^^^ upper quartile12th: 17.5%13th: 23.2% <=== median14th: 21.1%vvv lower quartile15th: 10.6%16th: 5.2%17th: 2.3%18th: 1.1%19th: 0.4%20th: 0.1%[/quote I don't doubt your intentions mate, but please take this shit to Accountants Weekly or something, it has absolutely no relevance to how football works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted January 3, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted January 3, 2014 (edited) Latest Monte Carlo9th: 1.1%10th: 5.9%11th: 11.5%^^^ upper quartile12th: 17.5%13th: 23.2% <=== median14th: 21.1%vvv lower quartile15th: 10.6%16th: 5.2%17th: 2.3%18th: 1.1%19th: 0.4%20th: 0.1%I don't doubt your intentions mate, but please take this shit to Accountants Weekly or something, it has absolutely no relevance to how football works....Wtf are you talking about? If you don't want to see it then don't. It's just one different way of looking at things and some of us appreciate it. Levi, keep up the good work. Briny's comments were really good on the other hand, you asked exactly the right question. I think you can for instance keep calculating our relegation probability, keep track on how it changes. It's interestingly a good measure of the anxiety level on VT. When it's very low, things calm down, like now. It changes a lot simply because the lower half of the league is so even. Edited January 4, 2014 by AVTuco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw_nuff Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well, the die has been cast. Significant results today. Relegation is between the bottom 11 clubs with S'hampton opening up a 7 point gap from us and Hull... fortunately for us there are many equally shite sides in the mix, but it's gonna go to the wire - It's tight down there. If we can get anything from Monday it will be priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big_John_10 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 7 points off 9th and 6 points off bottom. With our performances of late and tough fixtures coming up I think we'll be looking down and not up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'm sticking with 12th. Me too. First of all I'm a little amazed that we have got 23 points so far with some of the performances we had. I watched Cardiff - West Ham today and they were both relegation material. Actually made me feel a little better about our situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumstopdogs Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 17th or 18th. Lambert out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted January 11, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted January 11, 2014 I think i said 15th at the start of this thread. I'd bite your hand off for that now. I think it's going to be so tight, I think we'll be lucky to finish 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swerbs Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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