Is our future as bright as we think it is?

[Leeroy]

Not just in reaction to yesterday. We came into 2024 with loads of positivity, probably the most positive we've been since we were last regularly competitive in the mid 90s. Top 3 in the league and with a a manager we believed could end our nearly 30 years wait for a trophy. 

 

We had a really positive 2023 where we amongst other things:

• Reached our first European competition in 13 years
• Brought in Sevilla's Director of Football who had them winning trophies and getting into Europe every season
• Had our longest winning home run in God knows how long
• Outplayed the treble winners like no side has done to them probably ever
• Were in the top 2 at Christmas for the first time in 25 years

The only negatives were going out of cup competitions to lesser teams (Stevenage, Everton), getting pumped 5-1 to Newcastle on opening day, and losing two players to long term injury in Mings and Buendia. But those negatives were one-offs, they didn't start a spiral of negativity, and the positives far outweighed the negatives.

 

2024 to me has just been a really crap year. Ok, we have managed to retain top 4 so far and beaten teams we should have (Sheffield Utd, Forest, Fulham, Luton, Boro), but even in those wins we looked really ropey for at least one half of the game. And then the negatives:

• £120m losses with the press saying we'll have to sell key players in summer because we are close to PSR
• Not strengthening sufficiently in January when we were in our best position in the league for 25 years, only signing one player for our top 4 squad in a Championship player who hadn't stood out at that level (which I called out at the time) and an 18 year old Serbian right back wo we loaned back for the season, then letting our only other experienced holding midfielder in Dendoncker go out on loan despite now having a serious injury in that position
• Seeing our home form completely destroyed by losing to Newcastle, Chelsea, Man Utd and Spurs all in quick succession, despite being favourites in all those games
• Putting in an awful performance against Ajax in Europe, where again we just played really defensively like we did against Tottenham
• Monchi's signings so far really not working out, with the exception of Pau Torres (although even there, we look poor defensively even when he plays). Tielemans has been ok but for the amount of money he is being paid (£150K a week) he isn't doing enough, and Diaby has been hugely disappointing given the expense and can't even get in the side even with injuries to multiple midfielders. The loan signings haven't made a big enough impact. And then the signings in January were just totally baffling in my opinion, when we were in a great position and should have been trying to improve our first team not sign players for the next 5 years.

 

I'm not trying to tempt fate or be pre-emptive, but I don't know if our future is so bright. If our revenues don't improve quickly, given the rules we are up against, we could easily do a Leicester and get relegated in a few years after looking like a marginal top 4 side. Everton were competing with the big sides not so long ago, now look at them. And so were we in fact before we got relegated in 2016. We seem to have gone all in on Emery, putting all his key men in place and the structure to his liking, but if he leaves either by being poached or by mutual consent then where does that leave us? If we continue to sign players from Championship sides or obscure leagues in Europe, or sign players for big money then they can't even get in the side or don't perform, then we will go backwards and then start a spiral of negative outcomes. It has happened before and can happen again. I sincerely hope we know what we are doing and not repeating recent history again. 

[the_eristic]

Of course not. We all die in the end.

[Stevo985]

We could still very feasibly qualify for our first ever Champions League campaign and first European Cup campaign in 41 years AND have won our first major trophy in 28 years

Let's take things one step at a time. If you were looking ahead thinking we were going to be the next Man City then no the future isn't as bright as you thought it was (that is a general "you", not anyone in particular)

 

But the immediate future is still very bright indeed

[Zatman]

A complete overreaction, 18 months ago we were heading straight to the Championship led by a clown and now we are fighting for a Champions League spot while playing in Europe

If anything we are ahead of the process but people are impatient

[Okonokos]

44 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

Not just in reaction to yesterday. We came into 2024 with loads of positivity, probably the most positive we've been since we were last regularly competitive in the mid 90s. Top 3 in the league and with a a manager we believed could end our nearly 30 years wait for a trophy. 

 

We had a really positive 2023 where we amongst other things:

• Reached our first European competition in 13 years
• Brought in Sevilla's Director of Football who had them winning trophies and getting into Europe every season
• Had our longest winning home run in God knows how long
• Outplayed the treble winners like no side has done to them probably ever
• Were in the top 2 at Christmas for the first time in 25 years

The only negatives were going out of cup competitions to lesser teams (Stevenage, Everton), getting pumped 5-1 to Newcastle on opening day, and losing two players to long term injury in Mings and Buendia. But those negatives were one-offs, they didn't start a spiral of negativity, and the positives far outweighed the negatives.

 

2024 to me has just been a really crap year. Ok, we have managed to retain top 4 so far and beaten teams we should have (Sheffield Utd, Forest, Fulham, Luton, Boro), but even in those wins we looked really ropey for at least one half of the game. And then the negatives:

• £120m losses with the press saying we'll have to sell key players in summer because we are close to PSR
• Not strengthening sufficiently in January when we were in our best position in the league for 25 years, only signing one player for our top 4 squad in a Championship player who hadn't stood out at that level (which I called out at the time) and an 18 year old Serbian right back wo we loaned back for the season, then letting our only other experienced holding midfielder in Dendoncker go out on loan despite now having a serious injury in that position
• Seeing our home form completely destroyed by losing to Newcastle, Chelsea, Man Utd and Spurs all in quick succession, despite being favourites in all those games
• Putting in an awful performance against Ajax in Europe, where again we just played really defensively like we did against Tottenham
• Monchi's signings so far really not working out, with the exception of Pau Torres (although even there, we look poor defensively even when he plays). Tielemans has been ok but for the amount of money he is being paid (£150K a week) he isn't doing enough, and Diaby has been hugely disappointing given the expense and can't even get in the side even with injuries to multiple midfielders. The loan signings haven't made a big enough impact. And then the signings in January were just totally baffling in my opinion, when we were in a great position and should have been trying to improve our first team not sign players for the next 5 years.

 

I'm not trying to tempt fate or be pre-emptive, but I don't know if our future is so bright. If our revenues don't improve quickly, given the rules we are up against, we could easily do a Leicester and get relegated in a few years after looking like a marginal top 4 side. Everton were competing with the big sides not so long ago, now look at them. And so were we in fact before we got relegated in 2016. We seem to have gone all in on Emery, putting all his key men in place and the structure to his liking, but if he leaves either by being poached or by mutual consent then where does that leave us? If we continue to sign players from Championship sides or obscure leagues in Europe, or sign players for big money then they can't even get in the side or don't perform, then we will go backwards and then start a spiral of negative outcomes. It has happened before and can happen again. I sincerely hope we know what we are doing and not repeating recent history again. 

I think I counted 4 IFs just in the last paragraph.

Edited March 11 by Okonokos

[nick76]

[villa4europe]

No it's not

We'll sell luiz, emi, ollie, mcginn and JJ to meet FFP, Unai will go to Liverpool, the owners will lose interest now that they can't have their Las Vegas play thing, Adidas won't sell any shirts next season and drop us meaning we'll get slazenger in, heck will convert the disabled children's section in to a £500 a game padded seat area and due to cut backs we'll sack hercules the lion, the new badge will be done on Ms paint with no fan consultation, we won't do any works on the stadium and eventually go ground share the ricoh

And it's Monday and raining

Anything else? 

edit - rumour is unai is getting the band back together! osborne, salifou and the fonz to start vs ajax

Edited March 11 by villa4europe

[Mantis]

Sorry but this does very much seem to be a reaction to yesterday.

[ThunderPower_14]

18 months ago we were in the bottom 4 circling the drain. If we finish 6th with 62 points, that's still progress on last season.

The premier league is brutal. There are no easy games. That we've been in the top 4 for most of the season is phenomenal progress. Liverpool finished 5th last season. Arsenal spent several seasons out of touch with the top 4.

 

[Mic09]

Little spoiler about the Aston Villa Future.

In the future, one day, we will win the Premier League. Also, in the future, one day we will get relegated. 

[Okonokos]

Just now, Mic09 said:

Little spoiler about the Aston Villa Future.

In the future, one day, we will win the Premier League. Also, in the future, one day we will get relegated. 

Also Villa Park will be destroyed when the sun becomes a red giant and swallows the earth.

[nick76]

1 minute ago, Okonokos said:

Also Villa Park will be destroyed when the sun becomes a red giant and swallows the earth.

Bet we still don’t have a new badge before then….

[chrisvilla4]

Well, we are ahead of schedule in terms of progress so even if we do regress slightly we will remain on track. Ultimately, it seems Unai and the board are remaining sensible, I'd rather have steady progress than crash and burn. With the way we have grown so quickly, we are bound to have games like yesterday.

Key is to remain grounded and focused on the here and now. 

[Stevo985]

36 minutes ago, Zatman said:

A complete overreaction, 18 months ago we were heading straight to the Championship led by a clown and now we are fighting for a Champions League spot while playing in Europe

If anything we are ahead of the process but people are impatient

Yeah this is the key point.

The reason people might have got (understandably) carried away is because we came into 2024 joint top of the league, absolutely flying. Far beyond what anyone could have hoped for.

We're still fighting for top 4 which people might see as a step down from where we were, but in reality we were way way above where we should rightly have been so it was skewing everybody's expectations

[The Fun Factory]

2 minutes ago, Okonokos said:

Also Villa Park will be destroyed when the sun becomes a red giant and swallows the earth.

And that is why we haven't seem the Duchess of Cambridge for three months

[TRO]

1 hour ago, Leeroy said:

Not just in reaction to yesterday. We came into 2024 with loads of positivity, probably the most positive we've been since we were last regularly competitive in the mid 90s. Top 3 in the league and with a a manager we believed could end our nearly 30 years wait for a trophy. 

 

We had a really positive 2023 where we amongst other things:

• Reached our first European competition in 13 years
• Brought in Sevilla's Director of Football who had them winning trophies and getting into Europe every season
• Had our longest winning home run in God knows how long
• Outplayed the treble winners like no side has done to them probably ever
• Were in the top 2 at Christmas for the first time in 25 years

The only negatives were going out of cup competitions to lesser teams (Stevenage, Everton), getting pumped 5-1 to Newcastle on opening day, and losing two players to long term injury in Mings and Buendia. But those negatives were one-offs, they didn't start a spiral of negativity, and the positives far outweighed the negatives.

 

2024 to me has just been a really crap year. Ok, we have managed to retain top 4 so far and beaten teams we should have (Sheffield Utd, Forest, Fulham, Luton, Boro), but even in those wins we looked really ropey for at least one half of the game. And then the negatives:

• £120m losses with the press saying we'll have to sell key players in summer because we are close to PSR
• Not strengthening sufficiently in January when we were in our best position in the league for 25 years, only signing one player for our top 4 squad in a Championship player who hadn't stood out at that level (which I called out at the time) and an 18 year old Serbian right back wo we loaned back for the season, then letting our only other experienced holding midfielder in Dendoncker go out on loan despite now having a serious injury in that position
• Seeing our home form completely destroyed by losing to Newcastle, Chelsea, Man Utd and Spurs all in quick succession, despite being favourites in all those games
• Putting in an awful performance against Ajax in Europe, where again we just played really defensively like we did against Tottenham
• Monchi's signings so far really not working out, with the exception of Pau Torres (although even there, we look poor defensively even when he plays). Tielemans has been ok but for the amount of money he is being paid (£150K a week) he isn't doing enough, and Diaby has been hugely disappointing given the expense and can't even get in the side even with injuries to multiple midfielders. The loan signings haven't made a big enough impact. And then the signings in January were just totally baffling in my opinion, when we were in a great position and should have been trying to improve our first team not sign players for the next 5 years.

 

I'm not trying to tempt fate or be pre-emptive, but I don't know if our future is so bright. If our revenues don't improve quickly, given the rules we are up against, we could easily do a Leicester and get relegated in a few years after looking like a marginal top 4 side. Everton were competing with the big sides not so long ago, now look at them. And so were we in fact before we got relegated in 2016. We seem to have gone all in on Emery, putting all his key men in place and the structure to his liking, but if he leaves either by being poached or by mutual consent then where does that leave us? If we continue to sign players from Championship sides or obscure leagues in Europe, or sign players for big money then they can't even get in the side or don't perform, then we will go backwards and then start a spiral of negative outcomes. It has happened before and can happen again. I sincerely hope we know what we are doing and not repeating recent history again. 

It's a brave post, and is certainly topical, for the way we are playing.....but I still don't think there is an appetite on here, for it.

I think we do have a bright future, but right now, we have some real issues, and I don't think they are all down to the usual roll of squad depth, too many games, and tactics. I think it's very easy to cite those mitigating issues as a reason.

I am not convinced this team has enough characters in it, to navigate choppy waters.....I am uneasy, with the type of players, we are bringing in, it seems unadulterated talent seems to be the only pre-requisite, when this league demands that and a bit more.

I think Unai faces his toughest challenge now, since he has been here....some think, he over thinks things.......Well he might be forgiven, for spending time thinking this current drop -off through.

 

 

[nick76]

1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

Yeah this is the key point.

The reason people might have got (understandably) carried away is because we came into 2024 joint top of the league, absolutely flying. Far beyond what anyone could have hoped for.

We're still fighting for top 4 which people might see as a step down from where we were, but in reality we were way way above where we should rightly have been so it was skewing everybody's expectations

Plus in the period we’ve been talking about we’ve had injuries to Pau, Konsa, Kamara, JJ, Carlos, Digne, Duran on top of Mings and Buendia…and McGinn now sent off after having Kamara sent off in December. In the game the other week we had our 5th and 6th choice centre backs on the pitch in Lenglet and Chambers.  So a little perspective is needed.

[Captain_Townsend]

I think as a fan base we really swing from one extreme to another. We are 4th in March! First time really in 25 years we are in this position. Also still in a cup competition 

One caveat, I do think things have been on the slide off the pitch but quickly rectified if they improve Comms on these infrastructure and identify issues.

[cb_82]

Emery said recently there were 7 better teams and fans didn't like it, i think its more down to language barrier re the term better but Arsenal/United/Spurs/Liverpool/City/Chelsea and Newcastle after CL qualification all have much bigger resources at the top end alongside huge revenues, and the point Emery has been making is we are punching above our weight being in the thick of that group and significantly better in certain areas.

We have 10 games to go and if we take 12-13 points in that time we will finish 5th for the first time since 96-97 season so even if we dont get 4th we have done something we haven't done in nearly 30 years alongside the opportunity to win a trophy which is very much alive at the moment

I think some of the over reaction i have read and heard since yesterday has bordered on entitlement and although i get the disappointment in parts has been embarrassing

[MakemineVanilla]

No and Yes!

No if you mean fans of a certain age, yes if you mean the youthfully naive, or those who live abroad and have been exposed to toxic optimism.

Writing on behalf of authentic brummies, I would say that we don't do optimistic visions, and I make so bold as to say that, the fans weren't optimistic in 57, 81, 82, or any of the EFL wins.

Assuming Villa survive any FFP strictures, Villa are likely to flirt with the European places but the club is too far behind much richer clubs ever to catch up.

In 1981 we only needed one team to be in transition to win the title and the trophy was only won by the narrowest of margins.

In 1982 Villa didn't play many games to reach the European Cup final and again sneaked past the favourites, who won the trophy following season, while Villa began their decline.

Hopeful yes, but optimist never!