Is our future as bright as we think it is?

[TRO]

38 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

It's all down to personal perception.

Villa 76/77, with Andy Gray banging them in for fun, was a great season and with 22 league wins, when 24 was usually the pass-mark, was undermined by too many losses.

It was one of those seasons when competing on two fronts proved a bridge too far, with 13 losses, which were mostly away from Villa Park - two loses in April finished Villa's league challenge.

I think the increase in the number of games required to win the European Cup these days, favours the rich clubs because they have greater depth to their squads.

I thought the arrival of Peter Withe in 1980 was the catalyst which lit the fuse under Villa, and the team looked like they might win something from the get-go, but when McNaught cocked-up in the home tie with Ipswich, optimism turned into despair.

Villa have a bigger squad these days but there are several positions where Villa don't have a replacement of good enough quality.

We scored 76 goals in the 76/77 season and 72 goals in the 1980/81 season.

We had a gap, where we struggled and I think Gray and Deehan left in '79 and we had to rely on Geddis..

Peter Withe certainly replaced Andy Gray and both were renowned for their aerial ability and aggression in the box.

but for me the change, that raised us, was defence......We conceded 10 goals less than 76/77 where we finished 4th.....and that tipped the edge for me.

It doesn't go unnoticed too....That Liverpool selling Coutinho and buying VVD and Allison.... was one shrewd transaction, that had them back on track too.

We are scoring lots of goals now.....so that bit is bright.... we have on of the best strikers and Goal keepers around, not to mention a top manager....The future is bright.

Edited March 12 by TRO

[TRO]

4 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So our whole future isn’t bright because performances have been impacted by fatigue and injuries? I know you didn’t say that but I this thread was about Villas future. Not Sunday or recent performances so not sure how’s it’s relevant.

By all means moan about the performances on the Spurs thread and any other..I prefer to say my piece and then focus on the many positives. It’s just my nature. Each to their own mate.

I take your point, and it's a fair one.

I did say in an earlier post.....I think the future is bright.

Yes, I was talking too much about Sunday, but I did have chelsea and Newcastle and Man U on my mind too.

It depends on the context , we are talking.....I think the whole future is bright......we just have some choppy waters to navigate, along the way, this season.

[Zatman]

6 minutes ago, TRO said:

We scored 76 goals in the 76/77 season and 72 goals in the 1980/81 season.

We had a gap, where we struggled and I think Gray and Deehan left in '79 and we had to rely on Geddis..

Peter Withe certainly replaced Andy Gray and both were renowned for their aerial ability and aggression in the box.

but for me the change, that raised us, was defence......We conceded 10 goals less than 76/77 where we finished 4th.....and that tipped the edge for me.

It doesn't go unnoticed too....That Liverpool selling Coutinho and buying VVD and Allison.... was one shrewd transaction, that had them back on track too.

None of this has anything to do with this thread or our current season

[Vive_La_Villa]

Just now, TRO said:

I take your point, and it's a fair one.

I did say in an earlier post.....I think the future is bright.

Yes, I was talking too much about Sunday, but I did have chelsea and Newcastle and Man U on my mind too.

It depends on the context , we are talking.....I think the whole future is bright......we just have some choppy waters to navigate, along the way, this season.

Can’t disagree with any of that. Especially with the bit in bold. Would take 4 points from the next 3 any day.

[Xela]

On 11/03/2024 at 08:32, Leeroy said:

I'm not trying to tempt fate or be pre-emptive, but I don't know if our future is so bright. If our revenues don't improve quickly, given the rules we are up against, we could easily do a Leicester and get relegated in a few years after looking like a marginal top 4 side. 

Take a step back mate and relax. 

[El Segundo]

12 hours ago, Xela said:

Pretty much 5 years ago to the day, we beat small heath at the sty 1-0 thanks to Jack's goal. We started that game below them in the Championship.

Anyone fan complaining, whether on here, or on FB/Twitter etc, about where we are now needs to give their head a wobble.

The thread title refers to our future, not to where we were five years ago, or where we are now.  Those details provide context and show that the juggernaut has been heading in the right direction for five years, with the odd detour, and has advanced further than most of us could have dreamed of in that time.   I read the question as being whether even further progress is possible and the direction of travel sustainable.  I'm not as optimistic about that as I was a few months ago, for various reasons.  That's not a complaint, it's more an observation.        

[Xela]

1 minute ago, El Segundo said:

The thread title refers to our future, not to where we were five years ago, or where we are now.  Those details provide context and show that the juggernaut has been heading in the right direction for five years, with the odd detour, and has advanced further than most of us could have dreamed of in that time.   I read the question as being whether even further progress is possible and the direction of travel sustainable.  I'm not as optimistic about that as I was a few months ago, for various reasons.  That's not a complaint, it's more an observation.        

Ok, fair point. 

I'll answer the question - Yes, I think it is as bright as we think it is... or should I say, as I  think it is. We've got great owners, a great manager and a very good squad. Its not going to be easy to keep improving, but we are mixing with the big boys. Years ago that was a pipe dream.

The 'bright future' is subjective though. If someone genuinely thought we could win the champions league in a couple of years, then i'd say its perhaps not as bright as that, as I don't think that is realistic. 

[Adam2003]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

I didn't think we would win, but I thought we had progressed past getting 4 stuck up us

I love Emery but part of having him as manager is knowing that sometimes when you get beaten you will be BEATEN

[VillaChris]

Hopefully this won't be an issue for many years to come but the big question mark is what happens post Emery?

That's how you stay up the league, having succession plans in place rather than starting looking for a replacement the day after he goes.

[markavfc40]

2 hours ago, John said:

You cannot be serious! Whilst I agree things haven't gone as well as we would all have hoped in recent weeks, it isn't really reasonable to use that, as a reason to describe 2024 as being a "crap year". We could after all, still qualify for the CL at the end of this season and win the Conference League, despite the injuries and suspensions we have had to cope with. 

I'm scratching my head to see how, regardless of the promise of what may come, it has been a crap 2024 so far anyway. We have played 8 league games and won 4 and drew one. Do that over a 38 game season and that is 62 points.

Even if we want to include the cup games then we beat Boro away in the FA Cup, got a draw away to Chelsea and then lost the replay to them. A Chelsea whilst inconsistent still on their day capable of giving any team a game. Oh and to top off our cup games this year we got a good result at Ajax leaving us in a great position to finish the job against them at a hopefully rocking VP under the lights on Thursday to take us into the quarter final of a European Cup competition.

It is measure of how far we have come I guess, or how expectations have gotten way out of hand, that the above is now considered by some as being a big contributor to considering the year to so far be crap.

[TomC]

I wouldn't want to predict further out than five years because the situation in European football as a whole is unstable and much could change. But assuming the current system stays in place...

We're in a good position to finish in the PL top 8 every year and occasionally in the top 4. Success starts at the top and we have good owners. We have a great manager. We will have our occasional setbacks, but I have no reason to doubt that we will achieve the maximum that our revenue allows us to achieve.

The Sky 6 still blow us away in revenue. As long as the current FFP stays in place, that means that, no matter how much NSWE want to put in the club, the Sky 6 can outspend us. FFP was designed to protect the already-big clubs. Unfortunately, in the early PL days, Deadly Doug did not see that things were changing and did not do what was necessary for us to join the elite, even though we were in a position to do so. Manchester City were likely the last club to be able to spend their way in the door with outside-the-game money; the oil money did enough to raise their profile before FFP got strict, and now they're inside the elite and protected. (Not to mention that they are probably circumventing the rules right now, but that's another topic.)

Outspending us does not mean outperforming. Manchester United have fallen apart with the Glazers and without Ferguson. Chelsea have fallen apart under Boehly. Spurs have enigmatic leadership. American sport can provide dozens of other examples where wealthy clubs have not been well run. The Sky 6 will make their mistakes and, other than Newcastle, no other club is better positioned to take advantage than we are. That's why I think that it's realistic to challenge for the top 4 on occasion, as we are doing now.

Ideally, though, we want to have good leadership and good revenues. How do we increase our revenue? I have never seen a breakdown of revenues for PL clubs by UK vs. the rest of the world, but to speculate: In the UK, we're the biggest club in the second biggest city. Our domestic base is probably solid. My guess is that the Sky 6 are far ahead because of foreign revenue. Most people outside the UK, with no local club to support, are going to gravitate towards the big name clubs. Also, PL prize money and European competition money probably also contribute.

We need to build slowly and carefully. Sustained success on the pitch will mean more prize money; it will also improve our exposure abroad, attract more supporters, and attract more revenue. You don't want to overspend or go too fast, which is how Leeds ended up in the wilderness for over a decade and arguably how Everton and Leicester have gotten themselves into trouble. (If I see any dark cloud on the horizon, it's that we may be pushing the FFP limits already.) Keep finishing top 8 and occasionally in the top 4 and we will build our support. It may take 5-10 years to challenge for the title and be a true elite club, but never say never.

In short, I'm an optimist tinged with a necessary bit of patience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DaveAV1]

On 12/03/2024 at 18:34, Xela said:

Ok, fair point. 

I'll answer the question - Yes, I think it is as bright as we think it is... or should I say, as I  think it is. We've got great owners, a great manager and a very good squad. Its not going to be easy to keep improving, but we are mixing with the big boys. Years ago that was a pipe dream.

The 'bright future' is subjective though. If someone genuinely thought we could win the champions league in a couple of years, then i'd say its perhaps not as bright as that, as I don't think that is realistic. 

Yes I’d agree that most things point towards our future being a good one. Ok it’s not likely that we will win the PL or CL anytime soon but the dreams should never be dismissed completely. In my lifetime we’ve been in the third tier and almost bankrupt on a couple of occasions and yet have won the league and been champions of Europe. I saw my first ever Villa game at Villa Park when we were in the third division, it’s had its ups and downs but never been boring. We’re like no other club on earth, nothing good, bad, glorious or downright disastrously depressing can ever be ruled out and that’s as true today as it was in the 2970s and 80s or more recently. I think that Spurs have a chairman/CEO that’s similar in his mind set to Doug. A good businessman but frightened to spend money on footballers, that being humans aren’t always reliable. I hope he stays at Spurs for a long time yet! Doug did a lot for our club but his faults are well documented, so I won’t go over old ground again! The worst thing he ever did was possibly to sell us to Randy, who’s heart may have been in the right place on the face of it but he wasn’t a proper businessman, who’d msde his own money, things went from bad to worse though when he sold to Xia, who didn’t actually have either money of any idea how to make any. It appears now though that third time lucky we’ve got it right in the football ownership lottery, which our history will tell us that anything could happen but I’d prefer to hope that my glass is half full rather than half empty. Athens in May? Would you bet against us?

[DaveAV1]

1 minute ago, DaveAV1 said:

Yes I’d agree that most things point towards our future being a good one. Ok it’s not likely that we will win the PL or CL anytime soon but the dreams should never be dismissed completely. In my lifetime we’ve been in the third tier and almost bankrupt on a couple of occasions and yet have won the league and been champions of Europe. I saw my first ever Villa game at Villa Park when we were in the third division, it’s had its ups and downs but never been boring. We’re like no other club on earth, nothing good, bad, glorious or downright disastrously depressing can ever be ruled out and that’s as true today as it was in the 2970s and 80s or more recently. I think that Spurs have a chairman/CEO that’s similar in his mind set to Doug. A good businessman but frightened to spend money on footballers, that being humans aren’t always reliable. I hope he stays at Spurs for a long time yet! Doug did a lot for our club but his faults are well documented, so I won’t go over old ground again! The worst thing he ever did was possibly to sell us to Randy, who’s heart may have been in the right place on the face of it but he wasn’t a proper businessman, who’d msde his own money, things went from bad to worse though when he sold to Xia, who didn’t actually have either money of any idea how to make any. It appears now though that third time lucky we’ve got it right in the football ownership lottery, which our history will tell us that anything could happen but I’d prefer to hope that my glass is half full rather than half empty. Athens in May? Would you bet against us?

1970s or 80s that should say my texting whilst not around back then doesn’t improve with the passing of time!! 

[Beastmix]

There's no available manager in world football I would take over Unai right now (and only maybe 1 or 2 in-post I'd take). He's still trying to shape a threadbare squad into what he wants it to be and, according to 'the plan' (both sporting and financial), we're on track.

We're 4th... I repeat, FOURTH... in the table. In March! We're in the best place we've been in a long, long time.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Surprised this thread is still sniffing around.

[TRO]

On 12/03/2024 at 18:29, El Segundo said:

The thread title refers to our future, not to where we were five years ago, or where we are now.  Those details provide context and show that the juggernaut has been heading in the right direction for five years, with the odd detour, and has advanced further than most of us could have dreamed of in that time.   I read the question as being whether even further progress is possible and the direction of travel sustainable.  I'm not as optimistic about that as I was a few months ago, for various reasons.  That's not a complaint, it's more an observation.        

honesty is always the best policy.

I think we are at a very pivotal stage in our development......the next few transfer windows, will define, where we go....I still think, we have some very good players, but still feel the balance of the squad is not right, to challenge for the top prizes.

[TRO]

On 12/03/2024 at 18:34, Xela said:

Ok, fair point. 

I'll answer the question - Yes, I think it is as bright as we think it is... or should I say, as I  think it is. We've got great owners, a great manager and a very good squad. Its not going to be easy to keep improving, but we are mixing with the big boys. Years ago that was a pipe dream.

The 'bright future' is subjective though. If someone genuinely thought we could win the champions league in a couple of years, then i'd say its perhaps not as bright as that, as I don't think that is realistic. 

I think its fair, to be excited about mixing with the big boys, but we can't take our foot off the gas.....There is no treading water, in this environment, you are either progressing or regressing, there is no middle ground.

I look at our efforts under UE and I am blown away, with the progress.....but at the same time, I see opportunities to be better. I think that rests entirely on recruitment.

When Unai said last season only 10% of the work is done, I believe that from my observations....we still have a way to go, to properly challenge to top boys.

Chelsea, Man U and possibly Newcastle will come back with a vengeance next season, and we need to be ready.

We need to forensically analyse why, we have looked so vulnerable, in certain games.....when in others we have looked so formidable......The chasm in those games is the key concern, the distance from best to worst, is the centre of concern.

Injuries are bound to affect any team, but to cling to that mitigation, for every set back is misleading in my view....I think the team needs to find more durability, and grit, when confronted by spirited opponents, and it needs to be more robust and secure at set pieces and be ready to deny opponents any initiative....we have to embrace the grinding out results in away games and cup games, when necessary.

When we can honestly go to places like St James, and Anfield and be confident of giving them a game....we will know, we are getting there.

I look at our team and think, it's not as hard to fix as we sometimes care to think......The top boys have added certain players to their camps and transformed themselves from top 6 to title challengers....The players coming in have made a real impact on their ambitions.

It's not impossible for us, or as big an ask as some think.....but we do have to get recruitment right to do so.

Edited March 17 by TRO

[Xela]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Surprised this thread is still sniffing around.

Me too. I thought we'd shut the stadium and liquidated the club after last week!

[Vive_La_Villa]

4th in the table and in the quarter finals of a European Cup for the first time since 1998
 

Is our future as bright as we think it is??

[Jas10]

13 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

4th in the table and in the quarter finals of a European Cup for the first time since 1998
 

Is our future as bright as we think it is??

Change the title to:

“is our future even brighter than we think it is?”

or, for more effect:

“is our future bright, in spite of our negative and pessimistic fans?”