Popular Post Stevo985 Posted April 5 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted April 5 5 hours ago, Mantis said: I think if you'd have said before the start of the season that we'd be without Mings and Buendia for all of it, Ramsey for basically all of it, Kamara for over a third of it, Moreno for almost half of it and Torres for a couple of months with only Rogers coming into the first team in January, most (myself included) probably would've predicted 7th at best. The fact that we're almost certain to finish top 6, and in all likelihood probably top 5 with a decent chance of 4th, is frankly absurd. There’s no way I’d have been predicting 7th to be honest. I’d have probably said we’d be lucky to get top half 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 I was more than happy for us to qualify for Europe again in any format. Consistent euro qualification is massive if we want to sustain our success, I just didn’t ever expect it would/could be champions league this season. Unai is God! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Moving away from the race for fourth for a moment, does anyone KNOW how important various results in Europe are this week and next? Man City vs Real Madrid Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Liverpool vs Atlanta West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen Villa vs Lille Obviously the key ties are the games vs German teams... But how vital are they exactly? Can we afford one team to lose, both? Can they all win and yet still be messed up by shocks for Liverpool and, less so given the opposition, Man City? And who, really are favourites? Man City's draw feels very tricky. Are West Ham under dogs? Arsenal got a chance vs Bayern? All feels very knife edge for CL 5th spot, is there anywhere where predictions will give you an outcome? For example, I can see Arsenal, Liverpool and us progressing, but Man City and West Ham going out... Where would that leave it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pongo Waring Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 2 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said: Moving away from the race for fourth for a moment, does anyone KNOW how important various results in Europe are this week and next? Man City vs Real Madrid Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Liverpool vs Atlanta West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen Villa vs Lille Obviously the key ties are the games vs German teams... But how vital are they exactly? Can we afford one team to lose, both? Can they all win and yet still be messed up by shocks for Liverpool and, less so given the opposition, Man City? And who, really are favourites? Man City's draw feels very tricky. Are West Ham under dogs? Arsenal got a chance vs Bayern? All feels very knife edge for CL 5th spot, is there anywhere where predictions will give you an outcome? For example, I can see Arsenal, Liverpool and us progressing, but Man City and West Ham going out... Where would that leave it? We need the Germans to lose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 4 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said: Moving away from the race for fourth for a moment, does anyone KNOW how important various results in Europe are this week and next? Man City vs Real Madrid Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Liverpool vs Atlanta West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen Villa vs Lille Obviously the key ties are the games vs German teams... But how vital are they exactly? Can we afford one team to lose, both? Can they all win and yet still be messed up by shocks for Liverpool and, less so given the opposition, Man City? And who, really are favourites? Man City's draw feels very tricky. Are West Ham under dogs? Arsenal got a chance vs Bayern? All feels very knife edge for CL 5th spot, is there anywhere where predictions will give you an outcome? For example, I can see Arsenal, Liverpool and us progressing, but Man City and West Ham going out... Where would that leave it? Atletico v dortmund is one to watch as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post omariqy Posted April 5 Popular Post Share Posted April 5 14 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said: Moving away from the race for fourth for a moment, does anyone KNOW how important various results in Europe are this week and next? Man City vs Real Madrid Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Liverpool vs Atlanta West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen Villa vs Lille Obviously the key ties are the games vs German teams... But how vital are they exactly? Can we afford one team to lose, both? Can they all win and yet still be messed up by shocks for Liverpool and, less so given the opposition, Man City? And who, really are favourites? Man City's draw feels very tricky. Are West Ham under dogs? Arsenal got a chance vs Bayern? All feels very knife edge for CL 5th spot, is there anywhere where predictions will give you an outcome? For example, I can see Arsenal, Liverpool and us progressing, but Man City and West Ham going out... Where would that leave it? So I have looked at a few different scenarios Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home Current points totals are as follows Germany - 16.357 England - 16.250 I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below Scenario 1 Man City - 0.500 points in total Bayern - 0.571 points Arsenal - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.660 England - 17.875 England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. Scenario 2 Bayern - 0.571 Man City - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.642 England - 17.375 In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals Scenario 3 Man City - 0.125 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.125 Germany - 17.214 England - 17.5 In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario Man City - 0.500 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.214 England - 18.25 In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 1 hour ago, omariqy said: So I have looked at a few different scenarios Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home Current points totals are as follows Germany - 16.357 England - 16.250 I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below Scenario 1 Man City - 0.500 points in total Bayern - 0.571 points Arsenal - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.660 England - 17.875 England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. Scenario 2 Bayern - 0.571 Man City - 0.125 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.642 England - 17.375 In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals Scenario 3 Man City - 0.125 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.125 Germany - 17.214 England - 17.5 In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario Man City - 0.500 Arsenal - 0.500 Bayern - 0.143 Liverpool - 0.500 Leverkusen - 0.571 West Ham - 0.125 Dortmund - 0.143 Villa - 0.375 Germany - 17.214 England - 18.25 In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. Amazing work! So, to summarise (I think!) using your entirely sensible Draw/Win legs average; If Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool or West Ham go through, add 0.5 to England's score If they go out, add 0.125 If Bayern Munich, Leverkusen or Dortmund go through, add 0.571 If they go out, add 0.143 Villa... I'm unsure why we're different but 0.375 for a win... For a loss? This is added on to; England 16.250 and Germany 16.357. So my feeling is Real Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Villa through... England 16.250 + 0.125 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.125 + 0.375 = 17.875 Germany 16.357 + 0.143 + 0.571 + 0.571 = 17.642 Gonna be tight... When did football start involving so much maths?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 2 hours ago, jackbauer24 said: Amazing work! So, to summarise (I think!) using your entirely sensible Draw/Win legs average; If Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool or West Ham go through, add 0.5 to England's score If they go out, add 0.125 If Bayern Munich, Leverkusen or Dortmund go through, add 0.571 If they go out, add 0.143 Villa... I'm unsure why we're different but 0.375 for a win... For a loss? This is added on to; England 16.250 and Germany 16.357. So my feeling is Real Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Villa through... England 16.250 + 0.125 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.125 + 0.375 = 17.875 Germany 16.357 + 0.143 + 0.571 + 0.571 = 17.642 Gonna be tight... When did football start involving so much maths?! Villa get less as UECL doesn’t get the extra bonus point for progression to the next round until the semis. So the 1/8 = 0.125 isn’t added on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben1505 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Maths is fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 4 hours ago, jackbauer24 said: Amazing work! So, to summarise (I think!) using your entirely sensible Draw/Win legs average; If Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool or West Ham go through, add 0.5 to England's score If they go out, add 0.125 If Bayern Munich, Leverkusen or Dortmund go through, add 0.571 If they go out, add 0.143 Villa... I'm unsure why we're different but 0.375 for a win... For a loss? This is added on to; England 16.250 and Germany 16.357. So my feeling is Real Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Villa through... England 16.250 + 0.125 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.125 + 0.375 = 17.875 Germany 16.357 + 0.143 + 0.571 + 0.571 = 17.642 Gonna be tight... When did football start involving so much maths?! Usually Villa are part of new things. We were the first FA cup runners up not to qualify to Europe. Then we went to the League Cup final which was the first to qualify for a new tournament (UECL). And now we’re on the race of going to CL for the first time, yet it’s having a possibility of 5th for the first time, add to that the new format. Then again once we made it to Europe again, we made it in the last year of the ol format, and shall be in Europe for the new format, despite not being their for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted April 6 VT Supporter Share Posted April 6 3 hours ago, ben1505 said: Maths is fun ...... NAAAAAATTT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 2 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said: Usually Villa are part of new things. We were the first FA cup runners up not to qualify to Europe. Then we went to the League Cup final which was the first to qualify for a new tournament (UECL). And now we’re on the race of going to CL for the first time, yet it’s having a possibility of 5th for the first time, add to that the new format. Then again once we made it to Europe again, we made it in the last year of the ol format, and shall be in Europe for the new format, despite not being their for years. And I think we are the last club to finish 6th and not qualify for any European competition (2003-04) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 10 hours ago, jackbauer24 said: Moving away from the race for fourth for a moment, does anyone KNOW how important various results in Europe are this week and next? Man City vs Real Madrid Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Liverpool vs Atlanta West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen Villa vs Lille Obviously the key ties are the games vs German teams... But how vital are they exactly? Can we afford one team to lose, both? Can they all win and yet still be messed up by shocks for Liverpool and, less so given the opposition, Man City? And who, really are favourites? Man City's draw feels very tricky. Are West Ham under dogs? Arsenal got a chance vs Bayern? All feels very knife edge for CL 5th spot, is there anywhere where predictions will give you an outcome? For example, I can see Arsenal, Liverpool and us progressing, but Man City and West Ham going out... Where would that leave it? So many questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Famous last words... Arsenal can get at that bayern defence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 54 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said: And I think we are the last club to finish 6th and not qualify for any European competition (2003-04) Wasn't that because some shitters got to the FA cup final? Millwall if I remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 36 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said: Wasn't that because some shitters got to the FA cup final? Millwall if I remember? Was the first year that the FA Cup runner up got a European place instead of the league When they knocked it on the head guess who were runners up in the FA Cup and didn't get Europe? One of them quirky villa things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 If West Ham win the euopa league they will get a champions league spot But 5th place team won't? That's my understanding of the new rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 13 minutes ago, PaulC said: If West Ham win the euopa league they will get a champions league spot But 5th place team won't? That's my understanding of the new rules. No both would get Champs League Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 1 hour ago, villa4europe said: Famous last words... Arsenal can get at that bayern defence Yes but Harry Kane is their DM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Just need more points every weekend than utd and Spurs... Disappointing result but should still be the case with utd at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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