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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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Think I read on Twitter earlier that if Man City beat Newcastle this weekend then their game against Spurs will have to get moved and that the only empty slot for it will be the last week of the season. Going to guess it’s dependant on them getting through Real Madrid though. 
 

If that’s the case, makes Spurs April a bit easier but at the same time means there last 2 games will have a game against a title challenger like us. 
 

Ideally top 5 will get Champions League by then and Emery could be preparing for a Conference League final! 

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Next 4 fixtures are key for Man Utd. Brentford away, Chelsea away, Liverpool at home and Bournemouth away. Tough 3 away fixtures for them - one trying to stay away from relegation zone, one challenging for Europe and one aiming to finish top half with a home game against a title challenger. 
 

The way they are playing that luck will surely get found out here. We have got West Ham, Wolves, Man City and Brentford. Opportunity is there for us to make that 8 point gap huge before Europe kicks in again. 

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12 minutes ago, RichW said:

Next 4 fixtures are key for Man Utd. Brentford away, Chelsea away, Liverpool at home and Bournemouth away. Tough 3 away fixtures for them - one trying to stay away from relegation zone, one challenging for Europe and one aiming to finish top half with a home game against a title challenger. 
 

The way they are playing that luck will surely get found out here. We have got West Ham, Wolves, Man City and Brentford. Opportunity is there for us to make that 8 point gap huge before Europe kicks in again. 

It’s why the McGinn suspension is so poorly timed. 

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I think Man Utd will get closer to us, which will have some on here crying 'wailey! wailey!' and 'crivens!', but they will then drop back as their tougher fixtures kick in

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8 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said:

It’s why the McGinn suspension was so utterly idiotic. 

I still can’t believe he lost his head like that. Hope we don’t look at that moment at the end of the season. With all of the injuries we need him every game. 

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9 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said:

It’s why the McGinn suspension was so utterly idiotic. 

It also put to bed the game with half an hour to go. It went from Tottenham having a 4 goal difference advantage at 2 nil up to an 8 goal difference advantage at full time, in terms of impact on the league table. Completely avoidable.

Then of course it hugely weakens us for our next three games.

Utterly bizarre and irresponsible thing to do. 

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2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

It's also illogical because it's such low percentages.

The stats show that we're more than likely to get 5th, and 5th will more than likely be a CL place.

Yet a few people are utterly convinced it won't happen

I think we will get 5th and have said that all season - but I did worry when I read the Guardian/Opta article about run-ins today and saw we have the second worst in the league and the percentages are in favour of Spurs finishing ahead of us. But as you say, the percentages are definitely in favour of us finishing above Man U.

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18 hours ago, nick76 said:


 

I’m just taking it one day at a time.  

Too many fans thinking of all the combinations of whose going to get wins against who, where they are in the league, how points different, goal difference, European co-efficient and guessing all the combinations.  

So much can happen between now and the end of the season with form, injuries, winning and losing runs, lucky and unlucky score lines along with surprising results.  

There are very few easy games these days and slip ups can and will happen and it if was purely down to league position or team strength then there would be no point playing any individual fixture.

We might have another 15 games this season, we are going to have ups and downs and so are our competition for things…too many combinations to predict.  

Focus for now is the West Ham game and then onto the next.  Just have to try and enjoy the ride, trust in Emery’s brilliance we’ll be ok, whatever that means…

Top comment. I’d been doing this for the majority of the season and it’s exhausting, checking other teams fixtures etc. I think it’s because this is an unfamiliar position for us, you don’t want to lose it. It’s very easy to forget how we’ve got here and stop enjoying the process. Heard a comment on a pod last night along the lines of if you’d have told me in October 2022 we’d be beating Ajax 4-0 at home next season I wouldn’t have believed you. Let’s enjoy the next few months 

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14 hours ago, CVByrne said:

It's the team slow unbearable downhill demise from the back to back wins over City and Arsenal that's broken me. The loss at Old Trafford from 2-0 up and I knew, this is the moment we'll look back on where it all unravelled

It's been that unravelling slowly but surely that's just unbearable. It's just an inevitable event we have to live through. Slow painful death basically 

I used to be very positive. But sometimes you just know what's going to happen and when it eventually comes to pass. 

Being mid table all season is beyond better than being a win away from top of League at Christmas and then collapsing to 6th. 

Things could be a lot worse.

At least you don't support blose who could be getting relegated into league one with a stadium that stinks like shit and is falling down.

Mate.

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25 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said:

Top comment. I’d been doing this for the majority of the season and it’s exhausting, checking other teams fixtures etc. I think it’s because this is an unfamiliar position for us, you don’t want to lose it. It’s very easy to forget how we’ve got here and stop enjoying the process. Heard a comment on a pod last night along the lines of if you’d have told me in October 2022 we’d be beating Ajax 4-0 at home next season I wouldn’t have believed you. Let’s enjoy the next few months 

Does feel a bit exhausting thinking about other teams fixtures, results or seeing them score last minute winners but I wouldn’t swap it for being 13th where you’ve pretty much got nothing on the line for the rest of the season. 

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14 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Without replying to everyone who quoted me. I said how bad a draw it was and the stats people would show that whenever they tweeted their numbers. They have. It's as bad as a draw gets. 

If we didn't have a side collapsing entirely, injury and form and the embarrassment of turning Villa Park into th opposite of a fortress. We would all be confident

There's nothing to be confident about. Throwing away Champions League from the position we were in before Christmas is unbearable to think about. Just soul destroying stuff

We're not collapsing though. We've won 3 of our last 4 prem games and just comfortably won a last 16 second leg. We can win more games in both competitions in April and May.

Some tricky draws for the English teams but I don't believe they're all going to lose, think Atletico Madrid will comfortably dispatch Dortmund aswell. Man. City should take out Real Madrid for instance like they did last season. And of course we can continue doing our thing given there are no German sides left in the Europa conference.

Could be totally wrong CV but your continual posts read like you've put a massive wedge on us making CL next season and so now looking at every single factor that could go wrong in a major panic.

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19 hours ago, nick76 said:

Too many fans thinking of all the combinations of who’s going to get wins against who, where they are in the league, how points different, goal difference, European co-efficient and guessing all the combinations.

Totally agree. I’m going to give this thread a break until I have completed that degree in Advanced Mathematics.

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Hopefully Fulham will get something off Spurs today. They have beaten Brighton 3-0 at home in last match and also Arsenal on NYD. We just about hung on there so they will get chances v Spurs, just a question of whether they can take them.

Would be big boost going into West Ham if Spurs don't win and stay below us as they will probably overtake us when April starts.

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23 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

Another way of looking at this is we are fourth in the table and through to the last eight of a European competition and having our best season for over 20 years. And we are only just at the start of this journey!

It’s exhilarating, man, and it’s only football at the end of the day. Why not just relax and enjoy the ride? However this ends it has been a great season. 

Spot on It's been a fantastic season. Sometimes I just despair of certain posters on this forum. We haven't thrown anything away and we are close to winning our first trophy in eons.

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15 hours ago, CVByrne said:

It's the team slow unbearable downhill demise from the back to back wins over City and Arsenal that's broken me. The loss at Old Trafford from 2-0 up and I knew, this is the moment we'll look back on where it all unravelled

It's been that unravelling slowly but surely that's just unbearable. It's just an inevitable event we have to live through. Slow painful death basically 

I used to be very positive. But sometimes you just know what's going to happen and when it eventually comes to pass. 

Being mid table all season is beyond better than being a win away from top of League at Christmas and then collapsing to 6th. 

tbf, West Ham will only be a point behind Man Utd if they best us on Sunday.

Could be 7th......

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, beasley14 said:

I totally agree with this.  Only caution I have personally is the % is based on run rate and our run in/squad depth are weaker than that.  I am optimistic we can find enough to get the points we need, 70 should be enough to hold of Manu.  

70 will probably be enough for 4th. Utd will be nowhere near that. They would need 23 points from 10 games to get that. That’s title winning form. 
 

It isn’t going to happen

Edited by Stevo985
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