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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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54 minutes ago, nick76 said:

My head says 4th or 5th, my heart says trust in Emery.

I’m surprised so many suddenly think so many teams around us are suddenly going to start flying.  Man U have monthly crises so one is due,  Spurs are called Spursy for a reason, West Ham just got smashed 6-0 and Newcastle have the same league form as us in the last six games and we’ve been poor so any upside and that 10 point gap should be enough.

The problem with some fans on here is when we have a problem then suddenly fans assume that all the teams around us will become Man City, we’ll they aren’t and they will have problems…

In the Form table ( last 6) we are 11th Nick

  • Newcastle are 13th and beat us at home comprehensively....even with the 2 injured players, in situe
  • Spurs are 6th
  • Chesea are 4th....and they overrun us in the Cup at home...so could be argued, finding form.
  • Man U are 3rd...so maybe, we was expecting a lot on form.....and our outfield resurrgence was encouraging, but still lost.

with even Luton, Fulham and Wolves, who we still have to play....above us.

So, some fans could be excused, for having a bit of trepidation, going in to the final run.....but as you say Nick, trust UE to pull out a rabbit....We have trusted him, so far.

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7 hours ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Pongo doesn't understand that if one team keeps dropping points and another keeps winnning, that team can overtake the other

He probably understands that we haven't discovered time travel or fortune telling yet though.

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The sky 6 are far more used to the chase for the CL places and have experience of hitting their stride rather than tailing off when it comes to the final third of the season.  United had a poor-ish first half of last season but ended up in third without doing anything great.  I don't think they are as good as us but they seem to have hit a groove of grinding our results even when outplayed, whereas we have hit a bit of a slump.   This coming weekend will be interesting - if Utd win at Luton and we lose at Fulham the gap is suddenly 2 points, and possibly Spurs further ahead of us.  I wonder if we'll find it hard to respond under the increased pressure.     

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9 points going into the Spurs match would put a lot of pressure on Spurs and at VP.

It would be nice to win over Spurs at that point, but I still wouldn't be too fussed about it.

At this point, I'll take the points any in which way they come given our injury list. Next 14 matches is about getting over the line more than proving our dominance.

We've shown we can go toe to toe with our best XI, now we need to just accumulate points with half the lineup in the physio room every morning.

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IF we don't steady the ship quickly, I think a 4-2-8 is realistic for the rest of the season. That'll get us to 60 points, which means probably sixth position. Hopefully we can get back on track though.

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24 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

He probably understands that we haven't discovered time travel or fortune telling yet though.

You don't need to. We have been dropping points, allowing teams below us to close the gap. If that trajectory continues, teams will overtake us. 

According to VT, thats impossible because we were brilliant two months ago. 

Throw in extra injuries also as fact, but facts probably just means i'm wetting the bed

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1 hour ago, DJBOB said:

About what I think.

Blah blah blah - game isn't played on the spreadsheet. But a coinflip still between us and Spurs for 4th and 5th.

 

 

God, that Spurs game is big.

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10 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Was thinking similar reading some posts.

I mean I've got issues myself, but the absolute despair and doom from some allude to them having external problems football can't fix.

Also have to wonder if some people actually get any joy whatsoever from following the club. ( Not just a VT thing either, it's much worse elsewhere )

I must be some sort of alien… cos Unai and  the “new Villa” has been one of the few things keeping me going 😂

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Without stating the usual cliché, which I'm about to do..

We just have to take it game by game and not look any further than the next game, which is Fulham. 

If we win that, it sets us up brilliantly for Forest at VP then going to Kenilworth Rd after 2 straight wins and confidence will be high... 

But we lose against Fulham and it puts added pressure on Forest, and imagine we go 1-0 down in that to a quick counter... well.. that scenario doesn't bear thinking about... 

I still believe we finish between 4th - 6th, I think you have to be extremely optimistic or pessimistic to think higher or lower than those positions.

 

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My target at the start of the season was 6th and the Conference League. My target became 5th and the Conference League or FA Cup when we had such a good first half to this season, anything more would have been a bonus.

We have now hit that bump in the road and have suffered injury after injury. My target remains 5th, although given what we have had to cope with, I think we would all accept Europa Cup qualification either through the PL or by winning the Conference League. That would be progress and the very least our team deserve, that said, they deserve CL qualification and I'm not going to back against them getting it. We beat the odds last season and UE will want to beat them again this season, if they do it will be some achievement. 🤞

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If we had won the games we had took.for granted we would have been top of the league, we are not quite yet there and the gap between 4th and top isn't that great this season. The battle for 4th and 5th will go to the last few games of the season and have ups and downs for all of the teams competing, isn't it great 👍

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54 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

So are Fulham, Forest and Luton. Huge, need 9 from them.

I earlier echoed the sentiment that the Spurs game could be THE season defining game of the season, however, if we can pick up 9 points against those 3, it could possibly give us some breathing space.

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2 hours ago, TRO said:

In the Form table ( last 6) we are 11th Nick

  • Newcastle are 13th and beat us at home comprehensively....even with the 2 injured players, in situe
  • Spurs are 6th
  • Chesea are 4th....and they overrun us in the Cup at home...so could be argued, finding form.
  • Man U are 3rd...so maybe, we was expecting a lot on form.....and our outfield resurrgence was encouraging, but still lost.

with even Luton, Fulham and Wolves, who we still have to play....above us.

So, some fans could be excused, for having a bit of trepidation, going in to the final run.....but as you say Nick, trust UE to pull out a rabbit....We have trusted him, so far.

Yep and based on the previous six games form we were going to win the league 😉 including beating City, Arsenal and Spurs.  Form can change, we know that Emery consistently gets 2ppg over 18 months and we were the better team against Man Utd.

It’s hard to change feeling pessimistic or optimistic, I get that and I understand you are feeling pessimistic and I can’t change that.  I’m feeling optimistic, I really am.  I could be heading for a great fall but I just feel we’ll be ok.

Edited by nick76
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2 hours ago, nick76 said:

Yep and based on the previous six games form we were going to win the league 😉 including beating City, Arsenal and Spurs.  Form can change, we know that Emery consistently gets 2ppg over 18 months and we were the better team against Man Utd.

It’s hard to change feeling pessimistic or optimistic, I get that and I understand you are feeling pessimistic and I can’t change that.  I’m feeling optimistic, I really am.  I could be heading for a great fall but I just feel we’ll be ok.

I get being deflated by the result, and the Kamara injury, but I don't get how people can't be encouraged by the performance, and the fact that players like JJ seem to be coming back into form, Digne and Pau are coming back etc. ( What if the likes of Diaby and Zaniolo start to hit form too? )

Yeah we need to find a way to cope with the loss of Kamara and Konsa temporarily but if the boys are showing desire and fight, I think we owe it to them and Emery, to try to support them.

I've always said there would be ups and downs and hoped that people wouldn't go into meltdown in down periods.

Almost victims of our own " success ".

Maybe if we did shit earlier in the season and our Title contender form just recently started some people would feel better.

Irony is it's just the reverse of what the teams they now fear are doing.

So what happens if we pick up similar form again?

Obviously I could be wrong, but I just don't see Emery or the players allowing a total capitulation.

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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4 hours ago, AVTuco said:

IF we don't steady the ship quickly, I think a 4-2-8 is realistic for the rest of the season. That'll get us to 60 points, which means probably sixth position. Hopefully we can get back on track though.

Losing 8 of our last 14....with the recent defeats that would be losing 10 of our last 17 games.

I just think despite the present issues Emery is way too good to preside over such a bad run and he'll find a solution soon that papers over our weaknesses enough to still win enough games to have a serious chance of 4th going into May.

Sort of solution that would be beyond a Dean Smith but I fully expect Emery to come up with a season changing decision as he's proven it elsewhere over the last decade.

He's having the problems now that likes of Howe and Ten Hag faced a few months back and both seem to have come through it and will likely have strong end of seasons. Postacoglu aswell considering Spurs lost 4 out of 5 in November/early December.

If those teams can get back on track within two months why can't we be firing again by early March?

People were busy deriding Angeball when Spurs had that wobble. Did they actually realise they were missing half their team back then? They weren't losing to us with Maddison and their first choice CBs out there. They're now winning again so it's a bit bizarre we have one long term injury and immediately we're going to lose over half our games left in the run in.

Edited by VillaChris
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Well the supercomputer still believes in us, so who are you?!

" The prediction has tipped VIlla to amass 68 (67.8 points) after their 38 games. This will be enough to finish ahead of fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur who have 67 (67.2) points as their final predicted total. "

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/supercomputer-predicts-aston-villa-final-28628042

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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