AndyM3000 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Yes we will. Do you realise what sort of massive collapse would have to happen for us to finish 7th? We probably only need about 12-15 points to secure top 6. That's relegation form Think we will need more than that, if Newcastle can string some results together then come the end of April they will be very close to us. I am more concerned about them than Utd, Utd can't keep getting these lucky wins it's baffling how they are even close to us. If Konsa and Kamara are out for the season then it's a lot of work for the lads left, we will get more knocks with the games we have. We are an injury away from having a CM duo of McGinn and Tielemans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted February 12 Moderator Share Posted February 12 Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? They qualified but weren't ready, got dumped out of Europe completely and are fighting to catch the pack now. I know it's not binary and there's no evidence that the same would happen to us, but if our squad is struggling to be strong enough to qualify, how would it compete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? They qualified but weren't ready, got dumped out of Europe completely and are fighting to catch the pack now. I know it's not binary and there's no evidence that the same would happen to us, but if our squad is struggling to be strong enough to qualify, how would it compete? Yes, there is no guarantee that we will be in as good a position next season or that we will not do better than Newcastle did. The boost to the status of our club in the next transfer window and the extra cash is also too good to turn down imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We are absolutely screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? They qualified but weren't ready, got dumped out of Europe completely and are fighting to catch the pack now. I know it's not binary and there's no evidence that the same would happen to us, but if our squad is struggling to be strong enough to qualify, how would it compete? Yes because there is no guarantee we will ever get into this position again. If injuries cause us to miss out I will be so frustrated. The knock on effect of not getting there on what will happen this summer could be really huge in terms of exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? They qualified but weren't ready, got dumped out of Europe completely and are fighting to catch the pack now. I know it's not binary and there's no evidence that the same would happen to us, but if our squad is struggling to be strong enough to qualify, how would it compete? They should’ve got through to the next round. We have a much better manager to navigate Europe and the league. Losing Tonali has really cost them points this season, I think they would’ve been much better otherwise. I’d rather be in the fight of doing a hard season than not try at all. Plus the extra money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I suspect that we will need around 70 points for top 5 and about 7 points less for one of the other European competitions, should we need to qualify through our league placing. We have 14 games left so that would be 24 points from these games for CL and 17 for the lower target. I would break those remaining 14 games into the following: very difficult: Manchester City (a), Arsenal (a) & Liverpool (h). tough: Spurs (h), Chelsea (h) & Brighton (a). winnable/point minimum: Fulham (a), West Ham (a), Wolves (h) & Palace (a). must win: Forest (h), Luton (a), Brentford (h), Bournemouth (h). We now have 46 points. Winning three of the four "must wins" would give us 55 and winning all four and two of the four "winnable games" should see us in Europe through our league placing. To get CL we would need to win all eight of the "must win" and "winnable" games. The points needed would be reduced with getting something from one or more of the "tough" and "very difficult" games. It can be done, but it will take some doing and what happens with our injuries will impact on how likely it will be that we will achieve our goals. Make CL qualification happen Villa! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted February 12 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12 If we don't find that winning momentum again, we could end up with less points than last year, which would possibly mean we're completely out of Europe. I don't think it'll happen, but we really must get that winning mentality back. Our players can do it, even if we have some major injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted February 12 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, DCJonah said: I think any European football next season would be success. Hopefully won't happen but we've got some serious gaps in the squad and back up players out of form. I'd have taken Europa League after the Newcastle defeat start of the season for sure, but dropping out of CL if 5th might get us it would be harsh after all the great work that got us in the top 4 for a good while. The Chelsea game we were flat, but the game against United we played some really good football for most of the game. If we can keep making that many chances in a game we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, VillaChris said: Last 14 games started with a 1-0 win at home to Palace (had also won 2-0 at Everton the previous week) and it really was an incredible run of form up to May. In total we took 30 points from last 14 so that would be 76 and easily 4th imo. Not sure it's the same sort of vibe now as Emery was new back then and all the methods were clicking into place whereas now some bad habits are starting to develop e.g. slow starts at home, giving cheap goals away from set pieces. That was not an issue last season. Yeah it's pretty different, we had a fully fit squad, fewer games on the clock, and no midweek commitments so lots of time to prepare for each game. And also, as you say, he was new and players were looking to impress. We won't achieve that again I'm afraid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 58 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? Yes, we might not get the chance again in the future. Chelsea and Newcastle can both out spend us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, NurembergVillan said: Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? They qualified but weren't ready, got dumped out of Europe completely and are fighting to catch the pack now. I know it's not binary and there's no evidence that the same would happen to us, but if our squad is struggling to be strong enough to qualify, how would it compete? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, villa89 said: Yes, we might not get the chance again in the future. Chelsea and Newcastle can both out spend us. I confess I'm not exactly sure how FFP/PSR is going to be calculated next season, and maybe if it's just about wages as a proportion of turnover and nothing to do with profit and loss at all Chelsea will be okay, but if the current rules are in place or have an impact on how things are judged I'm very skeptical that Chelsea will have much to spend at all in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm very skeptical that Chelsea will have much to spend at all in the summer. What until you see what <insert Saudi team> is willing to pay for their dross. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, Stevo985 said: We'll finish 5th 2 hours ago, Stevo985 said: 7th would be an absolute failure from this position. Luckily it won't happen Incredible confidence. We've played well once in two months. And lost that game. Obviously hope you're right. 7th/8th more likely than 5th right now IMO. 58 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: Genuine question from a conversation I had with my brother earlier. Given the squad we have now and the limitations of FFP (or PS whatever), would we happily take Champions League qualification now if it meant a "Newcastle" season of two steps back? They qualified but weren't ready, got dumped out of Europe completely and are fighting to catch the pack now. I know it's not binary and there's no evidence that the same would happen to us, but if our squad is struggling to be strong enough to qualify, how would it compete? Absolutely we have to take it! Good grief. The conference league has the same number of games as UCL, we'd be fine. It wouldn't be 'more' strain than this season where we've been incredible and finally hit a bump in December with performance and injury issues. There's nothing to say we'll be anywhere near it in the next few years if we don't gobble up that income now. Will Utd be one of the worst sides in the league for half the season? Will Chelsea? Will Newcastle and Brighton? The competition is insane. The funny thing is finishing 8th or 9th actually gives sides an advantage with having a crack at top 4 with fewer games. I'd need to check figures, but I bet it's more profitable to go UCL, no Europe, UCL, no europe than....conference league, conference league, europa league, conference league. Not getting Champions league this season would really sting. And put a pause on this rocket ship progress under Emery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, romavillan said: I'd have taken Europa League after the Newcastle defeat start of the season for sure, but dropping out of CL if 5th might get us it would be harsh after all the great work that got us in the top 4 for a good while. The Chelsea game we were flat, but the game against United we played some really good football for most of the game. If we can keep making that many chances in a game we will be fine. Agreed, it would be reminiscent of 1998/99 when we were top and unbeaten after our first 12 games as well as top at Christmas only to end up 6th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 12 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12 We aren't going to finish in the CL spots. We'll scrape the European spots. The squad was thin anyway but it's increasingly threadbare with extremely important players increasingly missing through injury or form taking a dive. Chuck in the European nights starting up again and the chasing pack having nothing to worry about midweek... We're going to see a catastrophic fall in PPG and we're going to limp across the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: 7th/8th more likely than 5th right now IMO. That’s just crazy that you think that. Newcastle have the same points as us last six games and West Ham have 3 points in the last five games and just lost 6-0 at home. We are also 10 points ahead of those two teams. So do you think you may be overreacting mate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishywashy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) All things considered, we've been putting up pretty solid numbers in these last few matches. I think some comfort can be taken in that Man United have been putting out the numbers of a mid-table team all season (and imo on literally any other day we'd have battered them by 3 or 4 goals) and as for Newcastle... Are they OK? Edited February 12 by wishywashy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farlz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Newcastle are absolute dog shit, we aren’t finishing 7th ffs. No words for even mentioning 8th. United possibly could overtake us but that’s it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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