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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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I always like to think that we set realistic win expectations for the season. This season I think we will achieve 24 wins in the league. 

another 18 wins from 29 is very doable. We’ll beat City and one of Arsenal/Liverpool at home. 

Edited by Sulberto21
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23 hours ago, MrBlack said:

The total points being divided by the number of clubs entering Europe means we can't really afford to have any one of our clubs falling at the group stage. If they do, we need someone to win a tournament to counteract the drop in points we'll see.

On average, we probably need 4 or 5 clubs in semi finals (out of the 12 in total), and two clubs making a final. Last season we had only Man City and West Ham making a semi final, but they also went on to win. United went out the Europa in the quarters. But we also had one less club in Europe to divide our total points by.  This season we'll need to better that representation in the latter stages.

Yes well Liverpool, City and us are favourites to win our respective tournaments and if the prem team finishes third in their group they have the chance to stay in Europe by dropping down a competition tier. 

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1 hour ago, rubberman said:

Wouldn't be massively surprised to see Spurs held tonight at Palace. City possibly, though less likely, could draw at Old Trafford. Liverpool and Arsenal look like bankers as much as our game.

Would be great to get into the top 4. Do our business and keep the pressure on those above.

Palace without Eze, Olise and Schlupp so not sure where the goals/creativity are gonna come for Palace. 

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1 hour ago, Sulberto21 said:

I always like to think that we set realistic win expectations for the season. This season I think we will achieve 24 wins in the league. 

another 18 wins from 29 is very doable. We’ll beat City and one of Arsenal/Liverpool at home. 

Generally, only the top 2 sides in the league will win 24 games or more in a season. Would put us in a great space but for me its probably a tough ask. 

We need to take some points off City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool. 

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1 minute ago, cheltenham_villa said:

Generally, only the top 2 sides in the league will win 24 games or more in a season. Would put us in a great space but for me its probably a tough ask. 

We need to take some points off City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool. 

As long as we keep averaging 2pts a game that is good enough to get top 4. It is definitely realistic given the last 34 games under Emery. Finishing in the top 2 is not at this stage. 

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5 minutes ago, cheltenham_villa said:

Generally, only the top 2 sides in the league will win 24 games or more in a season. Would put us in a great space but for me its probably a tough ask. 

We need to take some points off City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool. 

My thinking is around the fact we had we games with the slippy one and still managed 18 wins. There were a few defeats under Don Unai where we didn’t put our chances away. I agree it’s a tough ask but I do think it is achievable (injuries permitting).

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2 minutes ago, Made In Aston said:

As long as we keep averaging 2pts a game that is good enough to get top 4. It is definitely realistic given the last 34 games under Emery. Finishing in the top 2 is not at this stage. 

 

1 minute ago, Sulberto21 said:

My thinking is around the fact we had we games with the slippy one and still managed 18 wins. There were a few defeats under Don Unai where we didn’t put our chances away. I agree it’s a tough ask but I do think it is achievable (injuries permitting).

on one hand, 24 games sounds possible, one the other only the top 2 would normally get that and I dont believe we will finish there.

Worth remembering that we are averaging 2 points a game but are not currently in the top 4, so as well as maintaining that, we also need others to drop.

For us to get over 2 points a game, we will need to earn some points against the top 4. if we lose all 8, having dropped points to newcastle and Wolves, we could only afford to drop points in 3 more games. Thats why i think points against those are so important. We cant afford to lose the arsenal and city games at home, fwiw i dont think we will.

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Take it game at a time, so only think of Luton game, They’ve improved lately. Could be another Mostar especially if they scored early. 
Anyway hoping for Spurs not to win tonight, that would be a good result to begin the game week with. 
Basically we have to look at: Spurs, City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea, Brighton and Utd each week and hoping they don’t win. 

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2 hours ago, Made In Aston said:

As long as we keep averaging 2pts a game that is good enough to get top 4. It is definitely realistic given the last 34 games under Emery. Finishing in the top 2 is not at this stage. 

Yep, our target should be maintaining 2pts a game which, considering the **** state we were in a year ago, is already a miracle. Do that and we get CL football I don't see 4th needing more than 76pts. The next three games are an opportunity to get ahead of the curve and give us some room to slip up. Not much though!

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5 hours ago, Sulberto21 said:

I always like to think that we set realistic win expectations for the season. This season I think we will achieve 24 wins in the league. 

another 18 wins from 29 is very doable. We’ll beat City and one of Arsenal/Liverpool at home. 

I think it as setting a good points total.

The most in the premier league is 74, after 42 games (I think this is our highest top flight points total, but not sure).

In a 38 game season I think it’s 64 points.

Split the difference, let’s say 70 points as a target.

So, 29 more games, 51 more points to get. I reckon 15 wins, 6 draws is achievable.

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10 hours ago, Sulberto21 said:

I always like to think that we set realistic win expectations for the season. This season I think we will achieve 24 wins in the league. 

another 18 wins from 29 is very doable. We’ll beat City and one of Arsenal/Liverpool at home. 

That would be incredible and we'd probably reach 80 points! Easily enough for top 4.

Personally think 20 wins should be the target as that guarantees top 6 minimum so 12/13 home wins and then 7-8 away. Add in draws and hopefully a a game or two left and take it from there.

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10 hours ago, Made In Aston said:

As long as we keep averaging 2pts a game that is good enough to get top 4. It is definitely realistic given the last 34 games under Emery. Finishing in the top 2 is not at this stage. 

That’s the sensible view, but it’s possible, and we are still improving with players to come back who improve us. We could be Emerys best team yet so who knows.?

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