Mattéo Guendouzi

[HKP90]

1 minute ago, Tayls said:

So are people going to be ok with no signings, or a little bit worried about the remainder of the season - in terms of finish strongly. 

I'm worried, no question, but I think we'll be ok for mid-table, lower mid without additional signings. 

Will that be enough for our fans/players- now that is the question.

[HKP90]

2 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Replaced him with the next Faustino Asprilla! 

I hope he is! I used to love watching old rubber legs. Mental as a box of frogs.

[CosmicVillan]

Just now, HKP90 said:

I hope he is! I used to love watching old rubber legs. Mental as a box of frogs.

Married a Pron Star - what a Legend

[calcifer]

4 minutes ago, Tayls said:

bit worried about the remainder of the season - in terms of finish strongly? 

I don't think top 7 will be achievable if we make no further signings,  we are going to pick up injuries and suspensions, squad is OK to finish 10th/13th. 

[nick76]

11 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

I'm worried, no question, but I think we'll be ok for mid-table, lower mid without additional signings. 

Will that be enough for our fans/players- now that is the question.

I’m hoping somebody may still come in or more. I think there is still an opportunity to finish better (whatever that means) but I think we are currently short to do that. I think some quality coming in could make a huge difference.  I will be disappointed if we don’t add.  Will be concerned if we don’t replace Ings as well.  If we don’t bring anybody in we’ll be fine but a missed opportunity and I will worry about injuries/form in the second half of the season along with not having good options.

[Tayls]

7 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I’m hoping somebody may still come in or more. I think there is still an opportunity to finish better (whatever that means) but I think we are currently short to do that. I think some quality coming in could make a huge difference.  I will be disappointed if we don’t add.  Will be concerned if we don’t replace Ings as well.  If we don’t bring anybody in we’ll be fine but a missed opportunity and I will worry about injuries/form in the second half of the season along with not having good options.

Exactly this. Missed opportunity is how I see it as well. I was hopeful we would strengthen now so we have less to do over the summer, and so we can have squad settled and ready to go for next season 

[DaveAV1]

58 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

 

We're about half way through the season.

So far Bailey has 4 league goals extrapolate 8 to season end.

Buendia has 3 ext. 6

Coutinho has 0. Be generous give him 1 by season end.

JJ has 2. Ext. 4. 

We are asking the above to get another 6 between them to make up for Ings (including the one I gave to Couts). That's if we want to be where we are now, which is mid table. To get 7th based on the current goal difference of the current encumbant of that position, we need another 6 goals on top of that. And that's generous, as the team in 6th and down to 9th have goal differences of between 8 and 14 better than us respectively.

So that's a best case of trying to find 12 more goals between our forward line, and worst case 19 more goals between them. 

Excluding Jhon, who has yet to play a game in the top flight. 

Yeah, I think we are light up front.

What you’re leaving out though, is that we played the first 13 games under a very poor manager and the next 7 under an elite manager, who will continue to be our manager for the remaining 18 games. So expectations for those games can only reasonably be based on the 7 games played under Unai. 

[nick76]

11 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

What you’re leaving out though, is that we played the first 13 games under a very poor manager and the next 7 under an elite manager, who will continue to be our manager for the remaining 18 games. So expectations for those games can only reasonably be based on the 7 games played under Unai. 

You have a point but even under Emery, having seen some of these play under him, do you still think Buendia and Coutinho are going to score many? Bailey is a mixed bag and JJ will contribute some.  It should be better but it’s not a group that my confidence leans towards them being that much better scoring wise.

[HKP90]

Just now, DaveAV1 said:

What you’re leaving out though, is that we played the first 13 games under a very poor manager and the next 7 under an elite manager, who will continue to be our manager for the remaining 18 games. So expectations for those games can only reasonably be based on the 7 games played under Unai. 

OK. Let's do the maths taking just the goal scoring rates in the UE 7 games and go again.

So based on the original scoring rates, we previously estimated that those 5 forward players will  score 17 goals in the remaining 18 games, basically duplicating form to date (OW 7, Bailey 4, Buendia 3, Cout 1, JJ 2), but that we need between 12 and 19 goals on top of that to realistically equal the GD of teams in, say 8th to 6th). So BEST case we need 29 total between now and July.

Using just the rates in the UE games:

Ollie is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals for the remainder of the season.

Buendia is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals

Bailey is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals

Couts is 0 in 7- let's be generous again and give him 1 goal.

JJ is 1 in 7- equating to 3 (2.5) goals. Let's give JJ a couple to make up for the injury, again being generous.

That gives us a total of 21. That’s 8 short. Assuming everyone else chips in as they have been doing. And we have no injuries. 

That is a contribution of just under a 1:2 striker over the last 18 games. 

 

[DaveAV1]

4 minutes ago, nick76 said:

You have a point but even under Emery, having seen some of these play under him, do you still think Buendia and Coutinho are going to score many? Bailey is a mixed bag and JJ will contribute some.  It should be better but it’s not a group that my confidence leans towards them being that much better scoring wise.

I didn’t see us getting 16 points from 7 games with the same players that had only got 12 from the previous 13.
 

The truth is we don’t know if we are going to sign anyone or the effect any signings may have. 

[DaveAV1]

8 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

OK. Let's do the maths taking just the goal scoring rates in the UE 7 games and go again.

So based on the original scoring rates, we previously estimated that those 5 forward players will  score 17 goals in the remaining 18 games, basically duplicating form to date (OW 7, Bailey 4, Buendia 3, Cout 1, JJ 2), but that we need between 12 and 19 goals on top of that to realistically equal the GD of teams in, say 8th to 6th). So BEST case we need 29 total between now and July.

Using just the rates in the UE games:

Ollie is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals for the remainder of the season.

Buendia is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals

Bailey is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals

Couts is 0 in 7- let's be generous again and give him 1 goal.

JJ is 1 in 7- equating to 3 (2.5) goals. Let's give JJ a couple to make up for the injury, again being generous.

That gives us a total of 21. That’s 8 short. Assuming everyone else chips in as they have been doing. And we have no injuries. 

That is a contribution of just under a 1:2 striker over the last 18 games. 

 

Definitely a bit of over thinking going on. We all know it doesn’t really work like that. Otherwise why even bother playing the remaining matches? 

[HKP90]

5 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

Definitely a bit of over thinking going on. We all know it doesn’t really work like that. Otherwise why even bother playing the remaining matches? 

I'm just trying to illustrate the point that is also painfully obvious without the statistics. We could really do with a striker in January if we want to go for the European places. I just made it empirical.

 

If anyone is interested, if you take it from the other direction, given that UE has improved our defence. If you take our goals conceded in the UE games and extrapolate to the end of the season  and then add the 12 minimum required to make up the GD, you get 26 goals required between now and July, so we're still at least 5 short.

Edited January 29, 2023 by HKP90

[Laughable Chimp]

46 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

What you’re leaving out though, is that we played the first 13 games under a very poor manager and the next 7 under an elite manager, who will continue to be our manager for the remaining 18 games. So expectations for those games can only reasonably be based on the 7 games played under Unai. 

7 games is far too small a sample size to be able to make predictions off the rest of the season off. Look back at the first 7 games under Gerrard and try and tell me that was a good predictor of what was to come. We're on hot form right now but the reality is that its extremely unlikely we'll be able to maintain this form until the end of the season. We can't extrapolate what will happen in the rest of this season based on just these stretch of games.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Laughable Chimp

[HKP90]

5 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

7 games is far too small a sample size to be able to make predictions off the rest of the season off. Look back at the first 7 games under Gerrard and try and tell me that was a good predictor of what was to come. We're on hot form right now but the reality is that its extremely unlikely we'll be able to maintain this form until the end of the season. We can't extrapolate what will happen in the rest of this season based on just these stretch of games.

This is true. I did give it a red hot crack tho. 

(Kenneeeeeeeth)

[rjw63]

13 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

This is true. I did give it a red hot crack tho. 

(Kenneeeeeeeth)

[villan-scott]

Hopefully now this is complete, it paves the way for MG to sign for us

[Follyfoot]

2 hours ago, HKP90 said:

OK. Let's do the maths taking just the goal scoring rates in the UE 7 games and go again.

So based on the original scoring rates, we previously estimated that those 5 forward players will  score 17 goals in the remaining 18 games, basically duplicating form to date (OW 7, Bailey 4, Buendia 3, Cout 1, JJ 2), but that we need between 12 and 19 goals on top of that to realistically equal the GD of teams in, say 8th to 6th). So BEST case we need 29 total between now and July.

Using just the rates in the UE games:

Ollie is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals for the remainder of the season.

Buendia is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals

Bailey is 2 in 7- equating to 5 (5.1) goals

Couts is 0 in 7- let's be generous again and give him 1 goal.

JJ is 1 in 7- equating to 3 (2.5) goals. Let's give JJ a couple to make up for the injury, again being generous.

That gives us a total of 21. That’s 8 short. Assuming everyone else chips in as they have been doing. And we have no injuries. 

That is a contribution of just under a 1:2 striker over the last 18 games. 

 

The math

[HKP90]

7 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

The math

Haha. No. 

[lexicon]

8mil? Weren't we supposedly linked with him for 40?

[nick76]

1 hour ago, villan-scott said:

Hopefully now this is complete, it paves the way for MG to sign for us

 

Interesting that the Marseille fans said that now that Ounahi was signing it meant Gueye or Guendouzi leaves in their opinion.  

 

Well Gueye has just gone out on loan so while it doesn’t mean Guendouzi deal isn’t happening, Marseille fans thought it was only likely one or the other leaving despite being slightly different types of midfielders.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited January 29, 2023 by nick76