nick76 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 44 minutes ago, CVByrne said: Even if they lose those and and lose to us we need to beat Liverpool and them to get above them. Top 6 is 100% gone. 7th is there, if Spurs win we need a point at least form Liverpool or it's really over. You can’t say Top 6 is 100% gone because at this very time with points on the board, Brighton are only 1 point ahead. They are playing so well we expect them to get sixth or at least more points than us but by no means 100%. They surely have to beat Saints but I thought that about them beating Everton so who knows, football sprouts up strange results. If they screw up now it’s down to them screwing up rather than us being brilliant. If only Newcastle and City beat them and somehow mysteriously saints get a point then doesn’t matter what happens at Anfield for us, it’s a straight shoot out unlikely as that scenario is there is still a chance. I don’t think it’s likely and we are battling Spurs for 7th and I’d still be delighted with 8th but nothing is 100% done yet at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 34 minutes ago, Follyfoot said: Is Brighton Southampton somewhat of a local derby as well? Its no Brighton Palace for viciousness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted May 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 16, 2023 35 minutes ago, Follyfoot said: Is Brighton Southampton somewhat of a local derby as well? Doesn't seem like it: Quote The second flaw is the claim that Brighton and Southampton have some sort of rivalry. For the Albion, the only rivals we care about are Crystal Palace and Saints fans only have eyes for Portsmouth. The closest things have ever got to a rivalry is when Poyet bizarrely tried to claim that Brighton fans should focus on Southampton instead of Palace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, nick76 said: You can’t say Top 6 is 100% gone because at this very time with points on the board, Brighton are only 1 point ahead. They are playing so well we expect them to get sixth or at least more points than us but by no means 100%. They surely have to beat Saints but I thought that about them beating Everton so who knows, football sprouts up strange results. If they screw up now it’s down to them screwing up rather than us being brilliant. If only Newcastle and City beat them and somehow mysteriously saints get a point then doesn’t matter what happens at Anfield for us, it’s a straight shoot out unlikely as that scenario is there is still a chance. I don’t think it’s likely and we are battling Spurs for 7th and I’d still be delighted with 8th but nothing is 100% done yet at all. Ok we've a ~6% chance of finishing in the top six as we're 16/1 to do so with the bookies = 1 / (16+1) = 5.88% implied probability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 I expect we’ll end up 8th, maybe 7th but nothing is over yet. We’ve all been talking about Brighton beating Everton and Saints straightforward, then they went and lost to Everton. I thought we’d beat Wolves and we lost. Many thought we’d lose to Spurs and we won. Many of us thought they would lose to Arsenal, they won easily. Spurs are even less predictable. I think some on here professing what will happen may eventually be right but the last few weeks have shown individual results sprout up many surprises and with less and less games remaining, each result becomes more significant. It’s not over until it’s over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, CVByrne said: Ok we've a ~6% chance of finishing in the top six as we're 16/1 to do so with the bookies = 1 / (16+1) = 5.88% implied probability Sorry had to be done Edited May 16, 2023 by nick76 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, CVByrne said: Ok we've a ~6% chance of finishing in the top six as we're 16/1 to do so with the bookies = 1 / (16+1) = 5.88% implied probability Yeah - 538 also gives us 5% chance of 6th, but.... 24% of 7th. (it's happening gif) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted May 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, Zatman said: Its no Brighton Palace for viciousness So why are Brighton and Palace rivals? I assume there’s some history there, but they’re miles away from each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 I would bloody love it if we went to Liverpool and done them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, alreadyexists said: So why are Brighton and Palace rivals? I assume there’s some history there, but they’re miles away from each other! I thought it was war kids being moved out of London but according to google apparently not, it's something to do with venables and some feisty games in the 70s that escalated and left a bad taste in the mouth of both clubs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic09 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, rubberman said: Yeah - 538 also gives us 5% chance of 6th, but.... 24% of 7th. (it's happening gif) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted May 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 16, 2023 26 minutes ago, villa4europe said: I thought it was war kids being moved out of London but according to google apparently not, it's something to do with venables and some feisty games in the 70s that escalated and left a bad taste in the mouth of both clubs Wow, well there you go! Thanks for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted May 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 16, 2023 53 minutes ago, alreadyexists said: So why are Brighton and Palace rivals? I assume there’s some history there, but they’re miles away from each other! Thankfully, the exact moment their rivalry began was recorded. Warning - not for the faint hearted. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 2 hours ago, nick76 said: You can’t say Top 6 is 100% gone because at this very time with points on the board, Brighton are only 1 point ahead. Mathematically it isn't gone but it's a very big ask. Even if we get 3pts on Saturday, we're still relying on Spurs and Brighton in their remaining games to drop points - regardless if we win at Anfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Unless Spurs have a poor finish, we will end up 8th. Some might be disappointed, but we will benefit in the long run. With potentially 5 CL spots next season and no European football to contend with, we can push for CL, same as Newcastle are doing this season. Swings and Roundabouts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 minute ago, duke313 said: Unless Spurs have a poor finish, we will end up 8th. Some might be disappointed, but we will benefit in the long run. With potentially 5 CL spots next season and no European football to contend with, we can push for CL, same as Newcastle are doing this season. Swings and Roundabouts. I'm not really that fuzzed about conference tbh. 8th or 7th I'm feeling a little indifferent about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Pinebro said: I'm not really that fuzzed about conference tbh. 8th or 7th I'm feeling a little indifferent about it. Same. Europe would be nice but would prefer Emery having the chance to prepare for league games every week without all the extra Thursday night games. Both Leicester and West Ham dropped off massively in the league whilst in Europe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 1 hour ago, AvfcRigo82 said: Mathematically it isn't gone but it's a very big ask. Even if we get 3pts on Saturday, we're still relying on Spurs and Brighton in their remaining games to drop points - regardless if we win at Anfield. Only +2 GD with Spurs (they have a bigger Goals For) so WHEN we win 5-0 at Anfield and 6-0 against Brighton, and Spurs struggle with 2-0 wins in their games, we finish above them on GD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDVILLAIN Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 3 hours ago, CVByrne said: Ok we've a ~6% chance of finishing in the top six as we're 16/1 to do so with the bookies = 1 / (16+1) = 5.88% implied probability According to your calculations i have a 3.23% implied probability of my wife giving me cuddles tonight...never give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 So, we need a Brighton win this Thursday? They win that and then beat Southampton they are then out of reach of Fulham and will have secured 6th place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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