nick76 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, Enda said: FiveThirtyEight have the most likely outcome is 8th place on 59 points. They estimate a 72% chance we will finish either seventh or eighth, but small chances we’ll go all the way to sixth or, sadly, small chance we’ll go all the way to ninth. But these are unlikely (something like 10 or 15% chance for either). They have us beating Spurs and losing to Brighton. If we beat both Spurs and Brighton, pack your bags we are traveling Europe next season. That’s why I never believe these things. On what basis do they think we’ll lose at home to Brighton. We are becoming solid at home, roughly in the same place in the table…so it’s basically opinion and that’s likely the difference between a league place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enda Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, nick76 said: That’s why I never believe these things. On what basis do they think we’ll lose at home to Brighton. We are becoming solid at home, roughly in the same place in the table…so it’s basically opinion and that’s likely the difference between a league place. Same way bookies set odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted May 2, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 2, 2023 Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 Saturday becomes a must win if Brighton get anything from United. If they lose, a point wouldn't be the end of the world on Saturday - just means we absolutely must beat Spurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villan_of_oz Posted May 2, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, BOF said: Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. I don't think missing out is necessarily a bad thing, and I agree having European football will definitely affect our league position. I think we could compete in the ECL, and we have the perfect manager for it. Ultimately it's a European trophy, and it's also a ticket into the Europa league which could somewhat mitigate our lower league finish. Its like a head n heart debate, no right or wrong for me. Edited May 2, 2023 by Villan_of_oz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted May 2, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 2, 2023 37 minutes ago, BOF said: Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. Understand the reservations. I think it would be a very good experience for the squad, whichever players Unai wants to utilise for it. Didn’t he recently say he prefers to have a busy schedule, see as much of the players in match day action? If he benefits in seeing how Archer plays over two legs against Anderlecht in the set up he wants the team to play and has a greater sense of how he could be used against Bournemouth, I think if handled well it could be of real benefit to us. Really, I kinda just want to finish as high as possible. If the Europa was 5th and Conference was 6th, and nothing for 7th, I would still be hoping for 5th, if not that, then 6th, with 7th being the (commendable) consolation final league position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboy54 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 It is a great problem to have ! My concern is that if we do scrape into Europe, that this will affect next season in the premier league, playing every Thursday and Sunday...its a lot of games and not sure we have the squad in depth to sustain a decent challenge in both competitions, let alone the FA cup and the League cup... Personally and selfishly I want us to win the FA cup, I am 65 in June, born in 1958 and never seen us win it, I am running out of time....getting beaten next season in the quarter final of the Vauxhall conference Europa league or what ever its called, and finishing 6th next season if it means winning the FA cup in 2024 will do me especially in our 150th year. But wouldn't that be great to win something in our 150th year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) Think we'll get 5 more points and finish 8th Spurs have a very nice looking run in Edited May 2, 2023 by Pinebro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 I do not understand the reservations in regard to European qualification... If we get there money will be spent to accommodate the extra games and Maestro Emery is the man to oversee the situation. Villa already need three to four players regardless of European qualification; if we qualify I would imagine we'd look to sign a couple more at least. Then we have Archer, A. Ramsey, Iroegbunam, Bogarde etc... Emery will want a Cup and to cement a place in the Top Six next season; on current form it is within reach. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 1 hour ago, BOF said: Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. Fully share these doubts but if not getting ECL entailed not doing so well in our last 4 matches and ending the season on a bit of a low note, I would be unhappy about that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Delphinho123 said: Saturday becomes a must win if Brighton get anything from United. If they lose, a point wouldn't be the end of the world on Saturday - just means we absolutely must beat Spurs. We have to beat Spurs regardless I think. Think they will win both of their home games though Brentford are capable of getting something but then they might be on the beach by then. Edited May 2, 2023 by RichW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, BOF said: Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. Just looking at the teams West Ham have played in the Conference League. Viborg, FCSB, Silkeborg, Anderlecht, AEK Larnaca and Gent. There's a big gap between group stages and knock outs (November - March which is down to the World Cup) but usually the group stages would be done by end of November anyway right? I just think Emery will use the likes of Duran/Archer/Ramsey/Tim Iroegbunam and some of the squad players (will have to see the summer window before establishing squad players) for the group stages. Any Premier League team that enters the Conference League has a good chance of winning it. We can talk about next seasons potential promising campaign all we want but there's no guarantee Villa will be challenging top 6/7 next season just because we have been in Champions League form this season so we might as well make the most of trying get into Europe this season as it could easily be another long wait for the next chance. Edited May 2, 2023 by RichW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted May 2, 2023 Moderator Share Posted May 2, 2023 25 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: If we get there money will be spent to accommodate the extra games and Maestro Emery is the man to oversee the situation. Villa already need three to four players regardless of European qualification; if we qualify I would imagine we'd look to sign a couple more at least. Then we have Archer, A. Ramsey, Iroegbunam, Bogarde etc... Emery will want a Cup and to cement a place in the Top Six next season; on current form it is within reach. As I said, I'm genuinely not sure. As for spending money. I don't doubt that for a second. They will spend what they can spend, but it will also be within the confines of FFP. So instead of spending let's say £100m on 4 players and concentrating on the league, we spend that £100m on 7 players instead, and concentrate on 2 fronts. You're now spending the same amount of money across more players, reducing the individual quality despite now fighting on more fronts. We might be fine. It might work. I'm not against Europe. I just think there's merit in walking before we can run. I'm not against it. Just, unsure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rodders Posted May 2, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted May 2, 2023 well, for me next year you have an established murdering club in the top 4 alongside a liverpool side with a refresh and a chelsea side who can't possibly be this shit. So for me it's always strike whilst the iron's hot. There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be up in the top 6 mix next season. I would hope so, given manager plus investment, but its far from a cert, if we can get it this year, we have to take it 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, BOF said: Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. I think we will need to get europe in some form to keep some of our players happy and to be able to attract better players in the summer. I think due to the world cup disruption this season has been a bit weird and can't see the likes of Chelsea and that being this crap next season so it will be tougher to get in the european places. We really need to take the opportunity we have now imo. Edited May 2, 2023 by AshVilla 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 1 minute ago, AshVilla said: I think we will need to get europe in some form to keep some of our players happy. I think due to the world cup disruption this season has been a bit weird and can't see the likes of Chelsea and that being this crap next season so it will be tougher to get in the european places next season. We really need to take the opportunity we have now imo. Also, I think football is all about trophies and success. We can't turn our noses up at the idea of potentially competing and winning the conference league in the hope we perform better in the league next year if we're not in it. I get the OP's angle though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, AshVilla said: I think we will need to get europe in some form to keep some of our players happy and attract better players in the summer. I think due to the world cup disruption this season has been a bit weird and can't see the likes of Chelsea and that being this crap next season so it will be tougher to get in the european places next season. We really need to take the opportunity we have now imo. Don't think we will keep players happy giving them games every now and then against a team from Iceland or Macedonia. We're at the point in our progress where we've hit a real conundrum. We have a very strong first eleven it's difficult to improve on and if we do players will get unhappy. Reality is pretty much the only solution to this problem is CL football. Edited May 2, 2023 by Pinebro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5-1 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 6 hours ago, Rodders said: well, for me next year you have an established murdering club in the top 4 alongside a liverpool side with a refresh and a chelsea side who can't possibly be this shit. So for me it's always strike whilst the iron's hot. There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be up in the top 6 mix next season. I would hope so, given manager plus investment, but its far from a cert, if we can get it this year, we have to take it Exactly this. No guarantees in football. Sky 6 plus Newcastle could all be back to their best plus Brighton etc. We could also fall off so who knows. This could be our best shot and conference is winnable which is a ticket to europa league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 6 hours ago, BOF said: As I said, I'm genuinely not sure. As for spending money. I don't doubt that for a second. They will spend what they can spend, but it will also be within the confines of FFP. So instead of spending let's say £100m on 4 players and concentrating on the league, we spend that £100m on 7 players instead, and concentrate on 2 fronts. You're now spending the same amount of money across more players, reducing the individual quality despite now fighting on more fronts. We might be fine. It might work. I'm not against Europe. I just think there's merit in walking before we can run. I'm not against it. Just, unsure. Qualifying for the Conference with the additional associated revenue potential may well give us a bit more room to spend from an FFP perpective, which might be enough to fill out the squad with a few more players to cope with the schedule. And if we are going to commit to big spend in any summer it's the next one, as it's the last where the Grealish money impacts the FFP assessment period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Made In Aston Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 9 hours ago, BOF said: Do we want Conference League? I'm not sure. Genuinely not sure. It could wreck next season's potentially very promising league campaign. If anyone has noticed, we've been Champions League form since Emery came in. ECL would destroy that. The squad clearly isn't ready to battle on 2 significant fronts (let's face it, Emery ain't taking the ECL lightly), and we're unlikely to get the amount of business done in one window to get up to that level. On the other hand it is European football we've been starved of. So there's that. Instant gratification at the expense of potentially richer pickings down the road. I'm very much taking the Que Sera Sera approach. But safe in the knowledge that if we do miss out, there are massive upsides to that, starting next season. I'm pretty sure there are exactly the same number of fixtures in the Europa League as conference league, as they follow the same format. The only difference is that there is a greater chance we would progress to the latter stages of the conference. However on present form and emery's success we might well go far in the Europa League as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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