Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 24 minutes ago, nick76 said: Yep agree, such patchy form according to some on here Great results for sure but the games against Fulham and Brentford was far from comfortable. We've had margins go our way during this run and it's important to aknowledge that. We're not going to keep getting the rub of the green. Will balance itself out unless our performances starts to improve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam2003 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Pinebro said: Great results for sure but the games against Fulham and Brentford was far from comfortable. Exactly how comfortable should we be in games against top-half PL teams having their best seasons in living memory? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Adam2003 said: Exactly how comfortable should we be in games against top-half PL teams having their best seasons in living memory? Which is why we need to be realistic to where we are. Our results can paint a wrong picture of how good we are in reality. Results under Emery has us in top 4 but we are nowhere that level, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam2003 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Pinebro said: Which is why we need to be realistic to where we are. Our results can paint a wrong picture of how good we are in reality. Results under Emery has us in top 4 but we are nowhere that level, yet. My point is that even top 4 teams don’t look comfortable in every game. Brentford, to use one of the teams in your example, took points off Arsenal and Spurs and BEAT Man City and Man United this season. However good we get we will never always look comfortable so it’s a tricky yardstick to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Adam2003 said: My point is that even top 4 teams don’t look comfortable in every game. Brentford, to use one of the teams in your example, took points off Arsenal and Spurs and BEAT Man City and Man United this season. However good we get we will never always look comfortable so it’s a tricky yardstick to use. But if you keep having 50/50 games there is only so much you can keep edging it. Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Man Utd have all won big quite a lot this season. It's why they are where they are. We're not there yet, but it's what we need to strive for. We smashed up Newcastle by being super aggressive and going at them. But how do we get that level of performance consistently? Edited May 4, 2023 by Pinebro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 56 minutes ago, Pinebro said: Great results for sure but the games against Fulham and Brentford was far from comfortable. We've had margins go our way during this run and it's important to aknowledge that. We're not going to keep getting the rub of the green. Will balance itself out unless our performances starts to improve. Fulham was comfortable they didn’t look like scoring in a month of Tuesdays. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Pinebro said: But if you keep having 50/50 games there is only so much you can keep edging it. Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Man Utd have all won big quite a lot this season. It's why they are where they are. We're not there yet, but it's what we need to strive for. We smashed up Newcastle by being super aggressive and going at them. But how do we get that level of performance consistently? I get where you are coming from as several of those games we won we maybe rode our luck a little. But isn’t that what good teams do? We’re very much a work in progress still. Edited May 4, 2023 by Vive_La_Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I get where you are coming from as several of those games we won we maybe rode our luck a little. But isn’t that what good teams do? At times. Not most weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 18 minutes ago, Pinebro said: At times. Not most weeks. True but let’s not forget what he is working with. He’s turned a midtable squad in to a top 4 contender (based on his games). Wait until he gets some more of his own players in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Adam2003 said: Exactly how comfortable should we be in games against top-half PL teams having their best seasons in living memory? We should be conceding fewer than 0 shots on target, obviously! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Hopefully United can do us a favour tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Pinebro said: keep edging it. Apologies... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 I’ve always respected and admired Manchester United. A fantastic club with knowledgeable, loyal and not at all fickle fans. I wish them the very best for Brighton this evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Pinebro said: Great results for sure but the games against Fulham and Brentford was far from comfortable. We've had margins go our way during this run and it's important to aknowledge that. We're not going to keep getting the rub of the green. Will balance itself out unless our performances starts to improve. Yeah but there is a difference between patchy form and what we are doing. We’ve had some fabulous form and now we are having just good form. A deflected goal defeat against Utd at the notoriously hard Old Trafford. The rub didn’t go our way that day…potential penalty for us, Dougies double shot with final clearance from Lindelof off the line yet Utd get rub of the green as Bruno’s goal deflected meaning Emi couldn’t save given the direction he was going. Fulham was comfortable to me, they never looked like scoring and we could’ve just as easily won 2-0 as 1-0. Brentford again have been very tough at home so 1-1 was a decent result and a fair one on the day. So to me we haven’t been getting the rub of the green, even Newcastle, the 3-0 flattered them given the chances we had, it could’ve been 3-0 by half time. So really imo we’ve been about right, aside from Old Trafford where we didn’t get the run of the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Brighton have a hell of a lot of games in a short space of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Brighton have a hell of a lot of games in a short space of time and 5 of those 7 games are against the Top 4 and us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, nick76 said: Yeah but there is a difference between patchy form and what we are doing. We’ve had some fabulous form and now we are having just good form. A deflected goal defeat against Utd at the notoriously hard Old Trafford. The rub didn’t go our way that day…potential penalty for us, Dougies double shot with final clearance from Lindelof off the line yet Utd get rub of the green as Bruno’s goal deflected meaning Emi couldn’t save given the direction he was going. Fulham was comfortable to me, they never looked like scoring and we could’ve just as easily won 2-0 as 1-0. Brentford again have been very tough at home so 1-1 was a decent result and a fair one on the day. So to me we haven’t been getting the rub of the green, even Newcastle, the 3-0 flattered them given the chances we had, it could’ve been 3-0 by half time. So really imo we’ve been about right, aside from Old Trafford where we didn’t get the run of the green. Here is our xG under Unai which is quite interesting. Our points total is 42 while our expected points total is only 29 which over a season would put us around 8th - 9th. Our form obviously has been brilliant but when Unai analyze this period he will understand our performances still has lots of room to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blunther Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 I get the use of xG, xGa and xAss, but xPoints is a stretch too far since the pattern of the game would vary so much based on the actual goals vs expected goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 I've lost a lot of faith in xG since I found out it doesn't take into account who the goal opportunity came to. So Ali Dia one on one with the keeper is the same xG as Haaland. or a 25 yard free kick being taken by Beckham or Ward-Prowse is the same as Richard Dunne taking it. Seems like a weakness in the data to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, nick76 said: and 5 of those 7 games are against the Top 4 and us. I have my doubs whether they have the squad big enough to deal with that volume of games in such a shirt space of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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