Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[robby b]

I can't believe we've only conceded 3 goals in our last 10 games!  This is just an incredible defensive turnaround after conceding 11 in those 3 defeats in a row.

[TheAuthority]

Table below shows the historic points total needed for Top 4.

The max we can get is 69 (insert KW gif.)

Lowest ever needed was 60 points in 03-04. Highest was 79 in 13-14.

Average is 69.6

Season	Pts required for top four
2001-02	71
2002-03	67
2003-04	60
2004-05	61
2005-06	67
2006-07	68
2007-08	76
2008-09	72
2009-10	70
2010-11	68
2011-12	69
2012-13	73
2013-14	79
2014-15	70
2015-16	66
2016-17	76
2017-18	75
2018-19	71
2019-20	66
2020-21	67
Average	69.6

 

With the Jawdies and Manure already on 59 points with 7 and 8 games to play respectively, this year could be one of the highest points totals ever needed for CL qualification. Imagine if Unai had taken over at the start of the season 

[TheAuthority]

3 minutes ago, robby b said:

I can't believe we've only conceded 3 goals in our last 10 games!  This is just an incredible defensive turnaround after conceding 11 in those 3 defeats in a row.

2 from open play - the other was the very dubious pen against Wet Spam. I agree though, it's absolutely staggering. Over a season that would be less than 12 goals 

[GlobalVillan]

13 minutes ago, robby b said:

I can't believe we've only conceded 3 goals in our last 10 games!  This is just an incredible defensive turnaround after conceding 11 in those 3 defeats in a row.

And scored in all of them ourselves. It's borderline witchcraft.

[GlobalVillan]

11 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

Table below shows the historic points total needed for Top 4.

The max we can get is 69 (insert KW gif.)

Lowest ever needed was 60 points in 03-04. Highest was 79 in 13-14.

Average is 69.6

Season	Pts required for top four
2001-02	71
2002-03	67
2003-04	60
2004-05	61
2005-06	67
2006-07	68
2007-08	76
2008-09	72
2009-10	70
2010-11	68
2011-12	69
2012-13	73
2013-14	79
2014-15	70
2015-16	66
2016-17	76
2017-18	75
2018-19	71
2019-20	66
2020-21	67
Average	69.6

 

With the Jawdies and Manure already on 59 points with 7 and 8 games to play respectively, this year could be one of the highest points totals ever needed for CL qualification. Imagine if Unai had taken over at the start of the season 

We won't have to imagine from this August tho.

[Villan_of_oz]

Our position is not a true reflection due to other teams around us having up to 4 matches in hand. I still think if we can get 7th then we have had an amazing season, but it is not going to be easy. 

We will need to win two of either Liverpool, Tottenham or Brighton to have any chance in my opinion.

I'm optimistic about our chances but still realistic about my expectations. When the King arrived I stated I would be happy with 11th or 12th I'm pretty sure. 

We can't forget where we came from, we may very well hit a brick wall soon with how thin our squad has been...

Or maybe I'm just trying to stop myself getting so excited because we all know that next season where are gonna win the Champions League.

Im giddy and confused, so use to being dour in my approach supporting the Villa, the potential of playing in Europe next season after what I was watching 6 months ago before the WC..... It is ridiculous.

Its also fun, enjoy the ride people, you don't know what you have until it's gone...

Edited April 26, 2023 by Villan_of_oz

[Kiwivillan]

1 hour ago, Villan_of_oz said:

Our position is not a true reflection due to other teams around us having up to 4 matches in hand. I still think if we can get 7th then we have had an amazing season, but it is not going to be easy. 

We will need to win two of either Liverpool, Tottenham or Brighton to have any chance in my opinion.

I'm optimistic about our chances but still realistic about my expectations. When the King arrived I stated I would be happy with 11th or 12th I'm pretty sure. 

We can't forget where we came from, we may very well hit a brick wall soon with how thin our squad has been...

Or maybe I'm just trying to stop myself getting so excited because we all know that next season where are gonna win the Champions League.

Im giddy and confused, so use to being dour in my approach supporting the Villa, the potential of playing in Europe next season after what I was watching 6 months ago before the WC..... It is ridiculous.

Its also fun, enjoy the ride people, you don't know what you have until it's gone...

Brighton have ridiculous fixture schedule and worse injury/depth issues than us

[ozvillafan]

57 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

Brighton have ridiculous fixture schedule and worse injury/depth issues than us

Aye. There's reason to believe for every fixture:

• Manure - defence of Macguire and Lindelhof
• Wolves - on the beach. Unlikely to be in the relegation scrap and nothing else to play for
• Spuds - in free-fall. Could have a 4th manager this year when they play us?
• Liverpool - beatable with the simplest of game plans: Get Moreno running at TAA
• Brighton - massive fixture pile up, with some tough games.

[IrishVilla10]

We could really be doing with cash and kamara back, its a tough run in for the same team to be playing every game. Bench last night was so thin. Ashley young deserves an extension if he wants one 

[KMitch]

1 hour ago, Kiwivillan said:

Brighton have ridiculous fixture schedule and worse injury/depth issues than us

They have to play 5 matches in 15 days to close the season out...  4 of which are Arsenal, Newcastle, Man City, and the Villa.  Fatigue is going to catch up to them.  

[viivvaa66]

4 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

We won't have to imagine from this August tho.

Maybe we should start the thread “Villa’s chase for Premier League title 23/24” now, there is no need to wait 

[Vancvillan]

Chelsea mid-table, Liverpool off kilter for a large portion of the season and Spurs in freefall. This is a chance to get UEFA cup qualification, and it may not repeat itself next year. Would mean a lot to our summer recruitment plans too.

I think those saying they don't care about Europe this season are glossing over how unique a chance this might be, and if we take it we could be taking ourselves to the next level well before we expected.

Think next season will be a lot tougher to crack the top 7, but if we make Europe and sign the right players we could embed ourselves in the Champions League mix over the next few years.

Disclaimer: I've been drinking on a school night.

[Captain_Townsend]

If we could sneak 6th or dare to dream 5th we are talking about either our best season in 26 years or equalling our best finishes in 26 years. 

[Farlz]

Honestly, I think we’d be fine without Kamara for the run in. Dougie is still the maestro in the middle and Donk has filled in well. McGinn can obviously also play the role (although I much prefer him wide).

Crazy thing for me, as much as I’ve complained about them over the season, I’m desperate to get Coutinho and Bailey back. At least just one. We’re desperately lacking options in the attacking areas and just having them on the bench would be nice. 

Hopefully we get some good injury news for the last 5 because we’re gonna need it. 

[nick76]

10 minutes ago, viivvaa66 said:

Maybe we should start the thread “Villa’s chase for Premier League title 23/24” now, there is no need to wait 

Pessimist! You really are!

“Villa’s unstoppable chase for the quadruple 23/24 trophies”

 

[CVByrne]

United away will be tough, we look like we're lacking something in last two games, bit of the energy we had against Newcastle. At least it's back to one game a weekend now for the run in.

Whatever happens, even if we end up 8th in the end. IT's clear the momentum under Emery is there, the PPG under Emery will be top 6 and in hunt for CL form regardless. 

We will be a club players want to join, they will see how Emery has improved players and see how Villa are on the up and will be competing in the top 8 for the coming seasons. Newcastle have shown top 4 is not the pipe dream it was. 

If we do manage Europe, getting 7th is probably a nicer introduction to Europe than 6th/5th with weaker sides meaning we can rotate team more. Cementing our place in the top 7/8 next season is key for us now. So whatever happens we have a summer of excitement ahead 

[villa4europe]

8 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Pessimist! You really are!

“Villa’s unstoppable chase for the quadruple 23/24 trophies”

"the sky sports engineered man City" rivalry" thread"

[AstonMartin82]

Sorry if this has been discussed already but there seems to be some confusion over how many places qualify for Europe. My understanding from the below link is that because Man Utd beat Brighton and it's a Man City Man Utd FA Cup final, and with Man Utd winning League Cup , then the top 7 now qualify for Europe? 

 

https://www.premierleague.com/european-qualification-explained

 

 

[gwi1890]

4 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

And scored in all of them ourselves. It's borderline witchcraft.

Maybe Dorris the tea lady  brewed up a potion and snuck it in the tea pot.

[Vancvillan]

2 minutes ago, AstonMartin82 said:

Sorry if this has been discussed already but there seems to be some confusion over how many places qualify for Europe. My understanding from the below link is that because Man Utd beat Brighton and it's a Man City Man Utd FA Cup final, and with Man Utd winning League Cup , then the top 7 now qualify for Europe? 

 

https://www.premierleague.com/european-qualification-explained

 

 

Yeah, this is up there with "can we sign two Man U players on loan" in terms of debate.

But you're right, top 7 for Europe.