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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

Interestingly, just having a quick flick through the predicted finishing's on the net. Most seem to have us 8th with 60 points after 38 games. I'd have been happy with that a couple of weeks ago, but now, I think we can top that. 4 wins in the last 7, beating Brighton on the last day. 

 

I was posting about this very same thing about a month ago and got criticised for it by some...some were predicting we'd be out of it by then...

The nature of the league in relegation and European qualification is so tight it might just go all the way to the last game of the season.

 

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4 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said:

I was posting about this very same thing about a month ago and got criticised for it by some...some were predicting we'd be out of it by then...

The nature of the league in relegation and European qualification is so tight it might just go all the way to the last game of the season.

 

To be fair, I don't think many on here thought in their wildest dreams that we would win 5 on the bounce after the West Ham game. 

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1 minute ago, duke313 said:

To be fair, I don't think many on here thought in their wildest dreams that we would win 5 on the bounce after the West Ham game. 

I said that finishing on 19 wins is a challenging but achievable target for this group and that was some 10 games ago. We might do it with a game or two spare the way we are going. 

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1 minute ago, duke313 said:

To be fair, I don't think many on here thought in their wildest dreams that we would win 5 on the bounce after the West Ham game. 

And to be fair, other posters shouldn't try to just negate everything that is still a possibility..

Just glad the manager and players weren't as negative as some on here a month ago...

@duke313 not a dig at you by the way as you are one of the positive ones!

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59 minutes ago, Monkeypuzzle said:

Do Liverpool have an easy fixture list for their run in? They seem to be predicted much higher than I expect based on their current position.

The below image was published on April 1st and is based purely on Opta's Power Rankings, which already has an element of subjectivity to it, but is useful as a rough gauge of difficulty.
 

Premier League Fixture Difficulty 2022-23

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5 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said:

And to be fair, other posters shouldn't try to just negate everything that is still a possibility..

Just glad the manager and players weren't as negative as some on here a month ago...

@duke313 not a dig at you by the way as you are one of the positive ones!

Most of us are not used to these kinds of performances, and even during the MON days I don't remember it being this good.  A lot of people are probably just waiting to be brought back down to earth with 2 or 3 losses on the bounce. 

Emery will change that pessimism in the fan base though, a winning mentality is being bred.

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26 minutes ago, mrchnry said:

I got excited reading this and looked at hotel prices. £1500 for a room with a shared bathroom 😬

I'm sure BOF won't mind putting us all up... 

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33 minutes ago, Wes said:

The below image was published on April 1st and is based purely on Opta's Power Rankings, which already has an element of subjectivity to it, but is useful as a rough gauge of difficulty.
 

Premier League Fixture Difficulty 2022-23

I wonder if that table takes I to consideration that while Villa have a tricky fixture at Brentford and Liverpool might play Nottingham, our game is of greater value being a potential 6 pointer in the European race.

We have a trickier schedule, but our games carry more weight behind them - not only winning 3 point, but taking those points from teams close to us. 

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42 minutes ago, Wes said:

The below image was published on April 1st and is based purely on Opta's Power Rankings, which already has an element of subjectivity to it, but is useful as a rough gauge of difficulty.
 

Premier League Fixture Difficulty 2022-23

Not saying the Opta rankings are a load of baloney, but today's update for the PL has us below Chelsea, and Liverpool in 3rd...

image.thumb.png.fdd858e5e1bb6f23416657dd87182616.png

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/04/who-are-the-best-football-team-in-the-world-opta-power-rankings/

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5 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Not saying the Opta rankings are a load of baloney, but today's update for the PL has us below Chelsea, and Liverpool in 3rd...

image.thumb.png.fdd858e5e1bb6f23416657dd87182616.png

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/04/who-are-the-best-football-team-in-the-world-opta-power-rankings/

But they've also got West Ham in it.

I doubt this is just based on the current season. It is probably an average of performance over 2 years or something?

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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6 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Not saying the Opta rankings are a load of baloney, but today's update for the PL has us below Chelsea, and Liverpool in 3rd...

image.thumb.png.fdd858e5e1bb6f23416657dd87182616.png

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/04/who-are-the-best-football-team-in-the-world-opta-power-rankings/

We’ve been good for 18 games. The other teams have been challenging to win league titles for over a couple of years.

Edited by Sulberto21
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Point being that they are overestimating the difficulty of playing eg Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham and underestimating the difficulty playing us. Using a longer-term measure of 'power' doesn't allow for big up-turns/down-turns in form and using that to rank run-ins isn't particularly useful, IMO. And that's before we get to injuries, fixture congestion etc.

I don't think any manager out there would prefer to play us rather than Chelsea right now.

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41 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Not saying the Opta rankings are a load of baloney, but today's update for the PL has us below Chelsea, and Liverpool in 3rd...

image.thumb.png.fdd858e5e1bb6f23416657dd87182616.png

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/04/who-are-the-best-football-team-in-the-world-opta-power-rankings/

This is based on historic performance. After each match the two teams will exchange points depending on the result. If a weak team win or draw from a stronger team, they will receive points  that gets taken of the stronger team. The amount of points exchanged will depend on the teams strength before the match and the result.

Obviously a team like Chelsea did start the season with a high ranking, that have been lowered during the season. We started the season low, managed to lower it even more, before we sacked Gerrard. Now we have almost over taken Chelsea, pretty well done in a few months.

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